Token Launches · resolved market
EigenLayer airdrop by April?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1cd10c97722cab039dfb6172f9aee90de3341b9a2bfbfed90014ea0d61a90011
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Token Launchesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $108,133
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $102,398
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $108,133 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Token Launches is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Token Launches | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xff92…f9b5backed No | 64c | 17,936$11,457 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,479.14 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.22per pick | 49cpaid | +32.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1b…b43abacked Yes | 40c | 11,181$4,418 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,418.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9d84…1344backed Yes | 9c | 6,299$595 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$595.03 | 67 | 13.4%9 W · 58 L | -2.8wins | -0.04per pick | 18cpaid | -74.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd42f…047dbacked Yes | 12c | 5,747$718 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$717.54 | 56 | 17.9%10 W · 46 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -68.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x351a…40bbbacked Yes | 12c | 5,429$654 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$654.44 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb547…d49ebacked Yes | 37c | 4,547$1,681 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,680.58 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x443f…baa8backed Yes | 55c | 3,636$2,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,999.67 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x940d…3bb7backed Yes | 19c | 3,021$571 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$570.83 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc1…2dc9backed No | 80c | 2,347$1,873 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$473.71 | 14 | 78.6%11 W · 3 L | +2.8wins | +0.20per pick | 59cpaid | +85.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9262…bcb8backed Yes | 18c | 2,200$397 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$397 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +3.3wins | +0.18per pick | 40cpaid | +142%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3cf3…87b3backed Yes | 11c | 2,142$244 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$243.76 | 39 | 2.6%1 W · 38 L | -4.5wins | -0.12per pick | 14cpaid | -96.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf477…4aa9backed No | 70c | 1,975$1,382 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$592.45 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +120.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1004…7638backed Yes | 10c | 1,898$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184.42 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe6…f1b2backed Yes | 54c | 1,852$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$999.84 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc9a9…b673backed Yes | 10c | 1,835$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189.68 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7789…f823backed Yes | 23c | 1,700$385 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$385.37 | 53 | 15.1%8 W · 45 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -52.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd352…4ad6backed Yes | 7c | 1,486$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.03 | 31 | 19.4%6 W · 25 L | -6.2wins | -0.20per pick | 39cpaid | -58.4%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x0941…eaf9backed Yes | 5c | 1,422$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.51 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +2.1wins | +0.21per pick | 49cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x19ef…2115backed Yes | 30c | 1,348$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb7ee…ca5dbacked No | 38c | 1,075$408 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$666.73 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.62per pick | 38cpaid | +163.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd89…29bebacked Yes | 20c | 1,000$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb61b…53d8backed Yes | 7c | 1,000$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x024b…d4e6backed Yes | 10c | 952.84$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x491b…e846backed Yes | 17c | 821$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.01 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x209c…d319backed No | 54c | 757$406 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$350.74 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe1ca…463dbacked Yes | 53c | 661.94$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd4e5…ec44backed Yes | 44c | 587.04$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -2.4wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x114c…1a57backed Yes | 42c | 474.12$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac0e…c0bfbacked Yes | 9c | 352.08$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4337…8882backed Yes | 12c | 296.02$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.13 | 118 | 33.9%40 W · 78 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x881b…9893backed Yes | 12c | 236.92$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.43 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb28…bd69backed Yes | 20c | 200$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb4c3…2093backed Yes | 10c | 200$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x564b…02d6backed Yes | 10c | 200$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb376…916abacked Yes | 53c | 187.85$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2439…c2acbacked No | 72c | 174.05$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.14 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee77…9f72backed Yes | 22c | 171.41$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.71 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb04…3a2bbacked No | 80c | 158.78$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.76 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x404c…4d7cbacked No | 70c | 142.86$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.86 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e8b…3789backed No | 33c | 138.27$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.64 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -36.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99d5…3374backed No | 72c | 123.62$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.89 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +39.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe09a…b69dbacked No | 70c | 100$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e5a…d56ebacked Yes | 21c | 95.24$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 56 | 23.2%13 W · 43 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f53…18cabacked Yes | 52c | 76.92$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeaac…fe1cbacked No | 70c | 71.43$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.43 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +54.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeac3…32d2backed Yes | 29c | 68.97$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Token Launches and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.