TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

MLB · resolved market

Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 9.5

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Overof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$16,903
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$17,266

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,903 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in MLB
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x255a…3435backed Under47c6,883$3,266 inLost-$3,266.121,52234.7%528 W · 994 L+27.1wins+0.02per pick33cpaid-3.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked Over60c5,444$3,267 inWon+$2,177.731,15149.2%566 W · 585 L-0.9wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Over53c4,496$2,383 inWon+$2,113.1110,84651.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L+137.6wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5268…135dbacked Under40c3,979$1,592 inLost-$1,592.0311,35752.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L+209.9wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-0.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Over52c2,014$1,038 inWon+$976.258,08646.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L+29.9wins0.00per pick46cpaid-7.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x39fc…e2f2backed Under43c1,385$596 inLost-$595.553,20851.2%1,642 W · 1,566 L+146.6wins+0.05per pick47cpaid+8.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x6815…9edbbacked Under3c1,163$29 inLost-$29.3344744.1%197 W · 250 L-6.5wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-6.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x32ed…f960backed Under14c427.55$59 inLost-$58.686,11655.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L+344.6wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+8.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x9c2f…bda7backed Over60c266.67$160 inWon+$106.672857.1%16 W · 12 L-0.7wins-0.03per pick60cpaid-8.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Under66c224.64$149 inLost-$149.2412,24746.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L-68.6wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-9.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc546…058ebacked Over33c181$60 inWon+$121.035,12754.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L+232.0wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+7.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over53c152$81 inWon+$71.448,29547.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L+72.4wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-4.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb64f…c3a9backed Over76c107.58$82 inWon+$25.8816253.1%86 W · 76 L+8.4wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+11.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x7f1c…390dbacked Under65c76.03$49 inLost-$49.4210846.3%50 W · 58 L-3.7wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-12.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xff34…694bbacked Under48c67$32 inLost-$32.435,23456.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L+130.4wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+2.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2f26…0d8fbacked Over35c56$20 inWon+$36.41,84343.6%804 W · 1,039 L-15.8wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-7.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2ecb…7645backed Over78c40$31 inWon+$8.844745.6%204 W · 243 L-2.4wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-11.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x204f…ba2cbacked Under41c29.99$12 inLost-$12.319257.8%111 W · 81 L-5.7wins-0.03per pick61cpaid-4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa04d…1488backed Under48c27.08$13 inLost-$1344737.4%167 W · 280 L-24.1wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-14.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x00d4…4c46backed Over77c20$15 inWon+$4.69939.4%39 W · 60 L-5.3wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-13.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x91e0…26a0backed Over77c20$15 inWon+$4.67630.3%23 W · 53 L-10.2wins-0.13per pick44cpaid-38.6%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xce5f…ab17backed Over77c20$15 inWon+$4.635341.1%145 W · 208 L-16.7wins-0.05per pick46cpaid-15.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x5cdf…8666backed Over77c20$15 inWon+$4.65343.4%23 W · 30 L-2.8wins-0.05per pick49cpaid-7.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6762…a9a5backed Over54c19.94$11 inWon+$9.1326853.4%143 W · 125 L+1.1wins0.00per pick53cpaid-3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa497…7891backed Over56c18.44$10 inWon+$8.089549.5%47 W · 48 L-1.6wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-10.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.