MLB · resolved market

Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 8.5

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0fe6274790aeb61b55ad2f5a0b7ccaa9b103ceabe3c638fe1848db41c8c7a99a

Rebuilt 18 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Overof Over, Under
Resolved: May 12, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $61,174
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $62,073

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $61,174 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 68 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in MLB
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x8a6c…0b3fbacked Under	57c	42,890$24,500 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24,500	40	47.5%19 W · 21 L	-3.9wins	-0.10per pick	57cpaid	-17%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x5268…135dbacked Over	43c	20,521$8,818 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$11,703.29	11,357	52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L	+209.9wins	+0.02per pick	51cpaid	-0.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked Over	43c	8,634$3,723 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$4,911.39	1,151	49.2%566 W · 585 L	-0.9wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-0.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1bc8…2f68backed Over	44c	2,830$1,245 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,584.72	32	31.3%10 W · 22 L	-3.7wins	-0.12per pick	43cpaid	-24.8%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Over	51c	2,749$1,406 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,343.15	8,086	46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L	+29.9wins	0.00per pick	46cpaid	-7.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9c76…c926backed Over	42c	2,391$1,004 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,386.94	1,292	50.2%648 W · 644 L	+18.2wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	+3.5%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x29b0…3f3cbacked Over	43c	2,129$915 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,213.53	192	48.4%93 W · 99 L	-5.5wins	-0.03per pick	51cpaid	-4.3%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2c55…97d4backed Under	56c	1,984$1,111 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,111	136	55.1%75 W · 61 L	+2.2wins	+0.02per pick	53cpaid	+2.7%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xadfb…c2efbacked Over	44c	1,903$828 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,075.27	2,407	48.5%1,167 W · 1,240 L	-62.3wins	-0.03per pick	51cpaid	-4.6%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over	41c	1,594$648 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$946.58	8,295	47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L	+72.4wins	+0.01per pick	47cpaid	-4.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x161a…4103backed Under	56c	939$526 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$525.84	4,035	57.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L	+72.2wins	+0.02per pick	56cpaid	+3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Over	44c	921.18$408 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$513.16	10,846	51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L	+137.6wins	+0.01per pick	50cpaid	-0.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa697…59d5backed Over	43c	900$387 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$513	6,899	50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L	-7.1wins	0.00per pick	51cpaid	-0.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x284d…59f7backed Under	75c	846.34$635 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$634.76	46	52.2%24 W · 22 L	-1.4wins	-0.03per pick	55cpaid	-5.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x424e…263bbacked Over	43c	840$365 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$474.8	1,769	51.6%912 W · 857 L	+16.9wins	+0.01per pick	51cpaid	+2.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x16e5…6373backed Over	59c	840$496 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$344.4	86	58.1%50 W · 36 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	58cpaid	-0.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf898…e720backed Over	45c	467.77$210 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$257.84	6,303	48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L	+181.4wins	+0.03per pick	45cpaid	+0.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4259…77c1backed Over	50c	399.99$200 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$200	2,243	57.6%1,293 W · 950 L	+37.1wins	+0.02per pick	56cpaid	+2.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0f8e…3082backed Under	50c	397.08$199 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$198.54	781	46.4%362 W · 419 L	+11.8wins	+0.02per pick	45cpaid	-1.1%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Over	46c	362.08$165 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$197.03	12,247	46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L	-68.6wins	-0.01per pick	47cpaid	-9.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5628…abbcbacked Over	44c	300$132 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$168	1,435	50%717 W · 718 L	-15.8wins	-0.01per pick	51cpaid	-1.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe94c…1edebacked Under	57c	263.28$150 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$150.07	124	49.2%61 W · 63 L	-3.2wins	-0.03per pick	52cpaid	-4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc0c2…b14dbacked Over	45c	255.69$115 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$141.04	1,149	48.9%562 W · 587 L	-6.5wins	-0.01per pick	49cpaid	-6.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x00c8…9ccdbacked Under	39c	247.56$96 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$95.99	89	43.8%39 W · 50 L	-0.9wins	-0.01per pick	45cpaid	+13.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7f1c…390dbacked Under	48c	197.66$96 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$95.79	108	46.3%50 W · 58 L	-3.7wins	-0.03per pick	50cpaid	-12.6%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8508…c22fbacked Under	57c	171.74$98 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$97.89	1,000	52.4%524 W · 476 L	+5.7wins	+0.01per pick	52cpaid	+1.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdb83…1e50backed Over	43c	140$60 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$79.8	4,478	48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L	-47.7wins	-0.01per pick	50cpaid	-4.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5b62…d87fbacked Over	43c	100$43 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$57	1,836	50.8%932 W · 904 L	-3.9wins	0.00per pick	51cpaid	-0.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0e49…7186backed Over	43c	100$43 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$57	2	50%1 W · 1 L	+0.1wins	+0.05per pick	45cpaid	+16.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf9ef…20ebbacked Over	43c	100$43 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$57	373	57.4%214 W · 159 L	+3.1wins	+0.01per pick	57cpaid	+5.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x32ed…f960backed Under	42c	99$41 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$41.16	6,116	55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L	+344.6wins	+0.06per pick	50cpaid	+8.6%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0x84cf…2f63backed Under	56c	97.72$55 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$54.72	4,553	49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L	-9.6wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xca20…7b68backed Under	34c	91.62$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31.15	371	43.9%163 W · 208 L	-21.4wins	-0.06per pick	50cpaid	-20.8%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xb07e…0df5backed Over	57c	87$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$37.41	997	44.1%440 W · 557 L	-38.0wins	-0.04per pick	48cpaid	-10.6%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc546…058ebacked Over	42c	71$30 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$41.18	5,127	54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L	+232.0wins	+0.05per pick	50cpaid	+7.8%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0xbca0…9705backed Under	49c	69.74$34 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33.85	8,470	52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L	+510.0wins	+0.06per pick	47cpaid	+5.3%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x9703…69c2backed Over	43c	69.65$30 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$39.7	3,453	51.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L	+58.1wins	+0.02per pick	49cpaid	+3.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc75b…3ea7backed Under	50c	60.5$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30.25	1,195	50%597 W · 598 L	+5.5wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-1.2%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0xc96b…438abacked Over	46c	54.57$25 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$29.57	274	52.6%144 W · 130 L	-4.2wins	-0.02per pick	54cpaid	-4%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x7242…ac6fbacked Over	44c	54.35$24 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$30.44	131	52.7%69 W · 62 L	+4.1wins	+0.03per pick	50cpaid	+5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbc78…f1f5backed Over	46c	54.35$25 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$29.35	263	51.3%135 W · 128 L	-7.7wins	-0.03per pick	54cpaid	-6.3%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd4ee…e425backed Over	44c	52.27$23 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$29.27	219	44.7%98 W · 121 L	-1.8wins	-0.01per pick	46cpaid	-3.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd5f5…bb11backed Under	56c	50$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28	559	53.1%297 W · 262 L	+10.5wins	+0.02per pick	51cpaid	+4.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0e45…39dabacked Over	48c	49.96$24 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$25.98	185	47.6%88 W · 97 L	-0.5wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	+5.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb5b3…4756backed Over	48c	49.96$24 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$25.98	130	46.9%61 W · 69 L	-1.7wins	-0.01per pick	48cpaid	-1.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3146…d153backed Over	48c	49.96$24 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$25.98	177	49.7%88 W · 89 L	-0.6wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	-3.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x27cf…979abacked Over	48c	49.96$24 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$25.98	120	49.2%59 W · 61 L	+1.5wins	+0.01per pick	48cpaid	+9.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x389d…995fbacked Over	48c	49.96$24 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$25.98	131	44.3%58 W · 73 L	-4.1wins	-0.03per pick	47cpaid	-0.5%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x03ba…bebabacked Under	58c	46.24$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26.82	825	51.6%426 W · 399 L	+3.8wins	0.00per pick	51cpaid	-6.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf593…9553backed Over	44c	43.67$19 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$24.46	2,945	47.6%1,401 W · 1,544 L	+3.8wins	0.00per pick	47cpaid	+0.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3bfc…8eb3backed Over	44c	40.2$18 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$22.51	49	26.5%13 W · 36 L	-10.5wins	-0.21per pick	48cpaid	-45.8%equal weight	34-0.14 edge/pick
0xccc4…77cabacked Under	36c	39.89$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.28	42	59.5%25 W · 17 L	+1.1wins	+0.03per pick	57cpaid	-10.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xec6c…c407backed Over	45c	39.67$18 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$21.82	28	53.6%15 W · 13 L	+1.1wins	+0.04per pick	50cpaid	+13.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xda77…683fbacked Over	53c	39$21 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$18.32	5,786	43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L	-192.2wins	-0.03per pick	47cpaid	-19.3%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2bcf…c678backed Over	51c	37.64$19 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$18.48	246	54.9%135 W · 111 L	+3.2wins	+0.01per pick	54cpaid	+2.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0b92…2241backed Over	52c	33.34$17 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$16.16	19	47.4%9 W · 10 L	-0.8wins	-0.04per pick	51cpaid	-18.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa21b…9e94backed Over	45c	33.33$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$18.33	486	51%248 W · 238 L	-18.0wins	-0.04per pick	55cpaid	-7.2%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf472…fd6ebacked Under	45c	33.33$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	123	49.6%61 W · 62 L	+3.8wins	+0.03per pick	46cpaid	+10.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa9f5…937fbacked Over	50c	32.3$16 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$16.15	2,545	45.9%1,168 W · 1,377 L	-73.6wins	-0.03per pick	49cpaid	-14.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3eb4…9cb8backed Over	44c	30$13 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$16.8	60	51.7%31 W · 29 L	+1.7wins	+0.03per pick	49cpaid	+8.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7e1b…106cbacked Over	56c	27.89$16 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$12.27	86	69.8%60 W · 26 L	+3.1wins	+0.04per pick	66cpaid	+4.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa497…7891backed Over	52c	27.17$14 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$13.06	95	49.5%47 W · 48 L	-1.6wins	-0.02per pick	51cpaid	-10.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6027…4320backed Under	55c	27$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.85	840	49.4%415 W · 425 L	+8.2wins	+0.01per pick	48cpaid	-1.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9d5c…fb95backed Over	45c	27$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$14.85	43	32.6%14 W · 29 L	-5.9wins	-0.14per pick	46cpaid	-29%equal weight	40-0.09 edge/pick
0x5df5…c44cbacked Over	53c	26.88$14 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$12.52	1,269	47.4%602 W · 667 L	-31.0wins	-0.02per pick	50cpaid	-13.8%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9ba6…cd3ebacked Over	43c	25.15$11 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$14.38	273	54.6%149 W · 124 L	+5.1wins	+0.02per pick	53cpaid	-2.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x82a5…674ebacked Over	57c	24.69$14 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$10.5	208	52.9%110 W · 98 L	+2.7wins	+0.01per pick	52cpaid	-9.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf5a4…d8b4backed Under	50c	20$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	37	45.9%17 W · 20 L	+0.4wins	+0.01per pick	45cpaid	-1.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 8.5this page
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Texas RangersTexas Rangers won
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 10.5Over won
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 11.5Under won
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 7.5Over won
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 9.5Over won
Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-1.5)Texas Rangers won
Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-2.5)Texas Rangers won
Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-3.5)Texas Rangers won
Spread: Texas Rangers (-1.5)Texas Rangers won
Spread: Texas Rangers (-2.5)Texas Rangers won
Spread: Texas Rangers (-3.5)Arizona Diamondbacks won
Spread: Texas Rangers (-4.5)Arizona Diamondbacks won
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Texas RangersYes won

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 8.5

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event