Bundesliga · resolved market
Will Eintracht Frankfurt beat SC Freiburg?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1d309dca8d66b8530baafb007a109a1a81cc5966c9d27ef5e3f77f1f755e77bf
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,589
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,353
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,589 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 14 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9e5c…d8e6backed No | 67c | 3,984$2,652 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,651.63 | 237 | 45.6%108 W · 129 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3779…0f80backed Yes | 33c | 2,435$800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,635 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.26per pick | 40cpaid | +57%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc398…f446backed Yes | 34c | 1,949$660 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,289.67 | 64 | 28.1%18 W · 46 L | -3.7wins | -0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x07dd…ed9dbacked Yes | 33c | 909.09$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$609.09 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | +3.0wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +37%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Yes | 32c | 758.96$242 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$516.54 | 193 | 47.2%91 W · 102 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x24df…e8b2backed No | 67c | 648.01$432 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$431.98 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b5…e43fbacked Yes | 34c | 430.6$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$283.65 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | +46.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6332…6128backed No | 68c | 371.75$253 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$252.79 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.31per pick | 64cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5448…c169backed Yes | 33c | 106.06$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.06 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.67per pick | 33cpaid | +203%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x71c1…e358backed Yes | 33c | 75.76$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.76 | 188 | 40.4%76 W · 112 L | +7.9wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x44eb…c390backed Yes | 33c | 60.61$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.61 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.22per pick | 28cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6245…d3c0backed No | 69c | 50$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.5 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.28per pick | 68cpaid | -43.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x92be…d717backed No | 69c | 36.23$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3b7b…f74ebacked No | 68c | 30.21$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.54 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.68per pick | 68cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Eintracht Frankfurt beat SC Freiburg?this page
- Will SC Freiburg beat Eintracht Frankfurt?No won
- Will SC Freiburg vs. Eintracht Frankfurt end in a draw?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.