Bundesliga · resolved market
Will SC Freiburg beat Eintracht Frankfurt?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfb599ba7305ebc39dcb7a253086a634f13a1bfaf216ef1f472965b77a79aa5b1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,918
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,174
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,918 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9e5c…d8e6backed Yes | 39c | 1,170$460 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$459.58 | 237 | 45.6%108 W · 129 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d85…be2ebacked Yes | 1c | 1,062$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.7 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.22per pick | 11cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked No | 57c | 999.83$568 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$431.85 | 148 | 46.6%69 W · 79 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaeb5…58e2backed No | 61c | 842.59$514 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$328.61 | 45 | 44.4%20 W · 25 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f06…8cf5backed Yes | 43c | 664.73$289 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$288.57 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9cd2…f9a6backed Yes | 43c | 393.02$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | -2.5wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3779…0f80backed No | 60c | 290.8$174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.32 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.26per pick | 40cpaid | +57%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9304…f693backed Yes | 5c | 281.76$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.76 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 6c | 220.76$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.51 | 79 | 48.1%38 W · 41 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd483…756dbacked Yes | 42c | 119.05$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3eb0…8826backed Yes | 43c | 93.02$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 31 | 61.3%19 W · 12 L | +5.0wins | +0.16per pick | 45cpaid | +41.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2e9e…c4efbacked No | 58c | 89.99$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.8 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +3.5wins | +0.22per pick | 40cpaid | +35.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x81fc…2a62backed Yes | 42c | 61.33$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.76 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1781…a0ecbacked No | 60c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +1.9wins | +0.21per pick | 57cpaid | +52.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf385…4864backed No | 56c | 42.99$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.79 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +77.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9c8…1efabacked No | 64c | 39$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.04 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Yes | 42c | 29.31$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.21 | 193 | 47.2%91 W · 102 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8e43…baecbacked Yes | 43c | 28.72$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.37 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x145c…bad0backed Yes | 42c | 28.67$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.04 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x46a6…8c21backed No | 56c | 24.81$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.92 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.25per pick | 58cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9cda…8051backed Yes | 43c | 24.79$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.66 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf98…88a7backed No | 60c | 24.73$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.89 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +83.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd240…f116backed No | 58c | 24.31$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.21 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +72.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2f…d35cbacked Yes | 44c | 23$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e8d…225ebacked No | 60c | 22.4$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.96 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa18a…fd7bbacked No | 60c | 21.52$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.61 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x17c9…d6aabacked No | 59c | 20.76$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.51 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +69.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f36…d137backed No | 60c | 19.75$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.9 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +87.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6049…3f83backed No | 60c | 17.25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.9 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +70%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xedd2…5e38backed No | 60c | 16.97$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.79 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will SC Freiburg beat Eintracht Frankfurt?this page
- Will Eintracht Frankfurt beat SC Freiburg?Yes won
- Will SC Freiburg vs. Eintracht Frankfurt end in a draw?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.