MLB · resolved market
Orioles vs. Twins
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1d4bcc358d1ce0a08a3aa882e4ba0fe53757ffc96066ee151d2abd26c3459653
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Twinsof Orioles, Twins
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,037
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,927
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,037 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x70f8…d0d5backed Twins | 63c | 3,116$1,953 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,162.87 | 213 | 56.3%120 W · 93 L | -6.5wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked Orioles | 37c | 2,110$781 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$780.85 | 1,591 | 50.3%801 W · 790 L | +68.9wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2373…ddfabacked Orioles | 38c | 1,000$380 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$380 | 374 | 46.8%175 W · 199 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x10b0…8525backed Twins | 61c | 969.15$591 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$377.97 | 958 | 50%479 W · 479 L | +4.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b1…6f55backed Orioles | 38c | 609.73$232 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$231.7 | 41 | 34.1%14 W · 27 L | -4.8wins | -0.12per pick | 46cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xff5c…ccbdbacked Orioles | 42c | 595.24$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 204 | 48.5%99 W · 105 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd55c…34febacked Orioles | 39c | 563.16$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$219.63 | 376 | 49.5%186 W · 190 L | +9.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Orioles | 39c | 548$214 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$213.72 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfba6…375cbacked Twins | 58c | 532.74$309 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$223.75 | 867 | 51.8%449 W · 418 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0cc…73e6backed Orioles | 40c | 350.17$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.85 | 145 | 39.3%57 W · 88 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x24df…e8b2backed Twins | 60c | 328$197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.2 | 1,203 | 44.2%532 W · 671 L | +20.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7e…6a9fbacked Twins | 62c | 322.58$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.58 | 2,033 | 52.4%1,066 W · 967 L | -35.5wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Twins | 62c | 161.29$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.29 | 2,267 | 53.3%1,208 W · 1,059 L | -12.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x11d7…52e1backed Orioles | 39c | 160.13$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.45 | 809 | 55.5%449 W · 360 L | +12.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Orioles | 39c | 83$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.56 | 2,470 | 52.5%1,296 W · 1,174 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4cf4…15ddbacked Orioles | 39c | 60.03$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.41 | 61 | 55.7%34 W · 27 L | +3.4wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x72fe…e2cebacked Twins | 61c | 56.99$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.23 | 519 | 55.3%287 W · 232 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef63…96cbbacked Twins | 62c | 50$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19 | 467 | 53.7%251 W · 216 L | -11.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd4…1b50backed Twins | 60c | 45.5$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.2 | 2,045 | 53.8%1,100 W · 945 L | +32.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e42…9003backed Orioles | 38c | 42$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.96 | 432 | 50.7%219 W · 213 L | +10.9wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa337…9e54backed Twins | 62c | 32.26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.26 | 944 | 55.3%522 W · 422 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x60ab…d681backed Twins | 60c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 743 | 56.9%423 W · 320 L | -12.0wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x02c7…3df7backed Twins | 62c | 24.19$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.19 | 551 | 52.5%289 W · 262 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9aa5…cda6backed Twins | 62c | 24.19$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.19 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.29per pick | 51cpaid | +61%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb5d2…317bbacked Twins | 59c | 18$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.38 | 76 | 51.3%39 W · 37 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.