Australian A League · resolved market
Brisbane Roar FC vs. Auckland FC: O/U 1.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1d58f0e8d6d8afeeb3d00ae47b57b19ebe66c0fd578a8e58a0dbc951060963a2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Australian A Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,934
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,290
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,934 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Australian A League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Australian A League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7cb1…984ebacked Over | 70c | 999.99$697 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$303 | 32 | 68.8%22 W · 10 L | +4.7wins | +0.15per pick | 54cpaid | +26.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 28c | 900.77$252 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$251.56 | 478 | 50.8%243 W · 235 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c0d…b612backed Over | 72c | 831.86$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$231.86 | 69 | 58%40 W · 29 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Under | 29c | 789.05$231 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230.71 | 309 | 54.7%169 W · 140 L | +8.1wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 11c | 640.21$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.41 | 349 | 37.8%132 W · 217 L | -13.0wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbe3c…a835backed Over | 70c | 299.98$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.99 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | -2.7wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1b71…0e06backed Over | 74c | 215.43$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.01 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x27ac…188dbacked Under | 21c | 211.13$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -1.7wins | -0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Under | 31c | 203.82$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.72 | 226 | 52.7%119 W · 107 L | +13.1wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbb0d…c581backed Under | 26c | 195$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.7 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -18%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe48c…163abacked Over | 55c | 182.02$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.02 | 75 | 48%36 W · 39 L | -3.6wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x14f3…0c3dbacked Under | 30c | 145$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.45 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x684d…64e3backed Over | 74c | 120$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Under | 31c | 113.55$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.57 | 286 | 59.4%170 W · 116 L | +12.9wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1b9b…bc4abacked Under | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -2.7wins | -0.21per pick | 44cpaid | -56.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb509…c01dbacked Under | 52c | 76.92$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5eed…2f6ebacked Over | 74c | 75$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 37c | 64.44$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.79 | 334 | 44%147 W · 187 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x11e2…26ccbacked Under | 26c | 58.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.34 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2fb0…3e75backed Under | 27c | 53.22$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.51 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x15ac…f3babacked Over | 74c | 48.88$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.71 | 25 | 88%22 W · 3 L | +7.3wins | +0.29per pick | 59cpaid | +70.1%equal weight | 66+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x1db3…ada1backed Over | 72c | 44.98$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.44 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.11per pick | 60cpaid | +12%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6894…59d8backed Under | 32c | 36.41$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.69 | 34 | 55.9%19 W · 15 L | -2.9wins | -0.08per pick | 64cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8d84…6df0backed Over | 74c | 26.35$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.85 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -1.6wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x44c9…2bd8backed Over | 70c | 24.52$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.24 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.11per pick | 66cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 72c | 23.67$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.53 | 988 | 44.4%439 W · 549 L | -11.4wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac27…18e7backed Over | 74c | 21.01$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.46 | 33 | 66.7%22 W · 11 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b81…b68bbacked Over | 74c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.95 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +48.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Australian A League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Brisbane Roar FC vs. Auckland FC: O/U 1.5this page
- Brisbane Roar FC vs. Auckland FC: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Brisbane Roar FC vs. Auckland FC: O/U 2.5Under won
- Brisbane Roar FC vs. Auckland FC: O/U 3.5Under won
- Brisbane Roar FC vs. Auckland FC: O/U 4.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.