MLB · resolved market
Spread: Texas Rangers (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1d657fce4b43503c8bba87b14210885f926af86636f392e89db3803aec67b526
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Seattle Marinersof Texas Rangers, Seattle Mariners
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,103
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,221
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,103 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Seattle Mariners | 28c | 1,395$391 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,003.8 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Seattle Mariners | 68c | 1,064$721 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$343.24 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Texas Rangers | 34c | 852.53$290 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$290.43 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7dde…30b1backed Texas Rangers | 75c | 786.8$589 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$588.92 | 434 | 59%256 W · 178 L | +19.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Texas Rangers | 54c | 590.5$317 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$317.32 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Texas Rangers | 73c | 417.81$305 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$304.65 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Texas Rangers | 32c | 259.7$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.1 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x02f0…9bb3backed Texas Rangers | 40c | 256$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.72 | 84 | 40.5%34 W · 50 L | +4.0wins | +0.05per pick | 36cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Seattle Mariners | 16c | 228.8$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192.19 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x789c…0d10backed Seattle Mariners | 27c | 178.48$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.29 | 287 | 49.5%142 W · 145 L | -10.5wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Seattle Mariners | 50c | 114.71$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.86 | 2,969 | 48.4%1,436 W · 1,533 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Texas Rangers | 40c | 85$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 1,796 | 43.8%786 W · 1,010 L | -33.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f1…3a05backed Seattle Mariners | 24c | 80$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.8 | 105 | 48.6%51 W · 54 L | +8.9wins | +0.09per pick | 40cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4318…9a94backed Seattle Mariners | 58c | 79.51$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.55 | 94 | 43.6%41 W · 53 L | -4.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Seattle Mariners | 40c | 75$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.81 | 1,814 | 49.1%891 W · 923 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -12%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Seattle Mariners | 58c | 72.53$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.37 | 3,208 | 51.2%1,642 W · 1,566 L | +146.6wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb6fc…b24ebacked Texas Rangers | 31c | 70.97$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 473 | 45.7%216 W · 257 L | +2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d63…9075backed Seattle Mariners | 27c | 66.9$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.84 | 733 | 55.3%405 W · 328 L | +22.3wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe84f…b777backed Seattle Mariners | 27c | 53.52$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.07 | 424 | 51.9%220 W · 204 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Texas Rangers | 67c | 44.78$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed Seattle Mariners | 27c | 43.14$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.36 | 1,725 | 50.1%864 W · 861 L | -4.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Seattle Mariners | 69c | 40$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.6 | 2,376 | 49.7%1,182 W · 1,194 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6804…29e2backed Texas Rangers | 68c | 38.93$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.47 | 1,379 | 50.6%698 W · 681 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b6e…f544backed Seattle Mariners | 67c | 37.31$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.31 | 341 | 39.9%136 W · 205 L | -8.7wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa057…d092backed Texas Rangers | 34c | 37.04$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.42 | 2,144 | 39.6%849 W · 1,295 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbf9c…3648backed Texas Rangers | 67c | 36.52$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.48 | 1,733 | 49%849 W · 884 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Seattle Mariners | 56c | 35$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.35 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c76…6e88backed Texas Rangers | 69c | 31.88$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 31 | 77.4%24 W · 7 L | +3.0wins | +0.10per pick | 68cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ee…9e81backed Seattle Mariners | 40c | 26.22$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.73 | 133 | 45.9%61 W · 72 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2792…c4f6backed Texas Rangers | 68c | 21.6$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.69 | 739 | 49.8%368 W · 371 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6383…6e28backed Texas Rangers | 68c | 21.6$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.69 | 792 | 55.6%440 W · 352 L | +20.6wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Texas Rangers | 71c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.1 | 1,927 | 17.2%331 W · 1,596 L | -320.3wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x93ac…2761backed Texas Rangers | 67c | 19.85$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.3 | 2,583 | 61.4%1,587 W · 996 L | +70.9wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc75b…3ea7backed Texas Rangers | 68c | 16.35$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.12 | 1,195 | 50%597 W · 598 L | +5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf766…9251backed Seattle Mariners | 70c | 14.3$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.29 | 1,464 | 63.5%929 W · 535 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Texas Rangers (-1.5)this page
- Seattle Mariners vs. Texas RangersTexas Rangers won
- Seattle Mariners vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 10.5Under won
- Seattle Mariners vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 6.5Over won
- Seattle Mariners vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 7.5Over won
- Seattle Mariners vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 8.5Over won
- Seattle Mariners vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Seattle Mariners (-1.5)Texas Rangers won
- Spread: Seattle Mariners (-2.5)Texas Rangers won
- Spread: Texas Rangers (-2.5)Seattle Mariners won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Seattle Mariners vs. Texas RangersYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.