MLB · resolved market
Seattle Mariners vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 7.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x39e33a606a185cb055927a779e0279fbfcd22dd65071ad5c68e0392b247818f2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $145,729
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $146,213
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $145,729 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 67 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3dfb…abafbacked Under | 50c | 124,000$61,998 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61,998.38 | 1,385 | 49.5%685 W · 700 L | -4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd81e…e3d0backed Over | 50c | 75,600$37,800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37,800.15 | 322 | 51.6%166 W · 156 L | +8.5wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf438…9559backed Over | 50c | 20,000$10,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,000 | 49 | 49%24 W · 25 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd696…8a49backed Over | 50c | 6,308$3,154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,153.85 | 321 | 52%167 W · 154 L | +7.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Over | 50c | 5,484$2,742 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,742 | 3,453 | 51.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L | +58.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb272…5030backed Over | 50c | 5,000$2,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,500 | 362 | 46.1%167 W · 195 L | -8.1wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Over | 50c | 4,765$2,381 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,383.92 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc33a…3da3backed Under | 50c | 4,356$2,178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,178 | 169 | 47.9%81 W · 88 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x56ac…d77ebacked Over | 51c | 3,845$1,961 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,884.05 | 716 | 50.7%363 W · 353 L | +9.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Over | 50c | 3,072$1,536 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,536 | 2,290 | 51%1,167 W · 1,123 L | +23.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c85…9634backed Under | 49c | 2,563$1,256 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,255.65 | 119 | 56.3%67 W · 52 L | +8.0wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x58b9…ee8bbacked Under | 49c | 2,000$980 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$980 | 752 | 48.8%367 W · 385 L | -1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x224f…514abacked Over | 50c | 1,800$900 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$900 | 457 | 48.6%222 W · 235 L | -11.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Over | 61c | 1,715$1,043 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$672.26 | 2,969 | 48.4%1,436 W · 1,533 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d3a…7b63backed Over | 51c | 1,555$793 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$761.95 | 1,352 | 50.8%687 W · 665 L | +13.3wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a30…8abdbacked Over | 51c | 1,022$521 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$500.78 | 680 | 53.2%362 W · 318 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd58d…c2d6backed Over | 51c | 980.39$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$480.39 | 151 | 49.7%75 W · 76 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7dde…30b1backed Under | 62c | 782.03$485 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$485.4 | 434 | 59%256 W · 178 L | +19.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Over | 50c | 734.02$367 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$367.01 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5966…af5dbacked Over | 50c | 700$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$350 | 272 | 49.3%134 W · 138 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7677…37c0backed Under | 49c | 599.81$294 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$293.91 | 328 | 50%164 W · 164 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5811…0976backed Under | 50c | 585$293 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$292.5 | 1,555 | 48.9%761 W · 794 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb0c…8c72backed Over | 50c | 472.59$236 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$236.3 | 1,206 | 53.7%648 W · 558 L | +29.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Over | 50c | 439.06$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$219.47 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Over | 50c | 404.75$202 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$202.37 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 38c | 391.53$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$241.79 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 75c | 316.02$237 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.01 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba62…3e29backed Over | 51c | 291.8$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.8 | 221 | 49.3%109 W · 112 L | -5.9wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x46f8…68ccbacked Over | 50c | 266$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133 | 450 | 45.8%206 W · 244 L | -10.9wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Over | 37c | 241.8$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.57 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Under | 63c | 234.58$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f1…3a05backed Under | 22c | 216$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.21 | 105 | 48.6%51 W · 54 L | +8.9wins | +0.09per pick | 40cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1fcd…724dbacked Under | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 102 | 49%50 W · 52 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Over | 37c | 198$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.86 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0ddd…e086backed Under | 50c | 189.13$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.59 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.29per pick | 54cpaid | -59.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c6…7b39backed Under | 20c | 188.18$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.64 | 232 | 40.9%95 W · 137 L | -9.6wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 74c | 184.48$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.32 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 77c | 163.68$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.01 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc9e…5a9ebacked Over | 51c | 137.25$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.25 | 342 | 55.3%189 W · 153 L | +10.4wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 50c | 122.14$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.07 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a8d…7688backed Under | 51c | 120.25$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.11 | 241 | 49%118 W · 123 L | -5.6wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Over | 51c | 106$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.94 | 318 | 44%140 W · 178 L | -6.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ad…b23ebacked Over | 51c | 100$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49 | 1,279 | 51.2%655 W · 624 L | -19.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4193…4853backed Over | 51c | 100$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49 | 846 | 51.5%436 W · 410 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5bda…17a8backed Under | 49c | 90$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.1 | 1,753 | 50.8%890 W · 863 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x765b…5043backed Over | 52c | 87.1$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.1 | 65 | 46.2%30 W · 35 L | -4.9wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Under | 23c | 78$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.1 | 1,814 | 49.1%891 W · 923 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -12%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 63c | 74.44$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.69 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b6e…f544backed Over | 37c | 74.33$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.69 | 341 | 39.9%136 W · 205 L | -8.7wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa032…2090backed Over | 50c | 72$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 952 | 52.9%504 W · 448 L | +17.8wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7760…21f0backed Over | 42c | 63$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.54 | 2,369 | 47.4%1,122 W · 1,247 L | -11.6wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b11…5375backed Under | 48c | 57.69$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.69 | 1,777 | 49.5%880 W · 897 L | +25.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x55d6…1f24backed Over | 52c | 50.12$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.06 | 312 | 58%181 W · 131 L | +15.0wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ac…4ec7backed Under | 29c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 1,173 | 29%340 W · 833 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8efa…894cbacked Over | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 454 | 45.2%205 W · 249 L | -8.6wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa774…82dfbacked Under | 50c | 49.5$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.75 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a62…5247backed Over | 50c | 48$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.84 | 140 | 47.9%67 W · 73 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38ef…8800backed Over | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 424 | 48.1%204 W · 220 L | -9.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2892…e9d7backed Over | 50c | 39.72$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.86 | 348 | 46.8%163 W · 185 L | -12.9wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x093a…e580backed Over | 46c | 32.61$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.61 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | -4.2wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa6db…3155backed Over | 51c | 30.59$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.14 | 788 | 54.6%430 W · 358 L | +27.1wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7319…c664backed Over | 50c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 309 | 28.5%88 W · 221 L | -46.7wins | -0.15per pick | 44cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x1ce9…7115backed Under | 51c | 28.3$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.43 | 132 | 60.6%80 W · 52 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Over | 50c | 27.9$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.06 | 2,021 | 39.5%798 W · 1,223 L | -25.7wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc75b…3ea7backed Under | 51c | 26.75$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.64 | 1,195 | 50%597 W · 598 L | +5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0882…dceabacked Under | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 60 | 40%24 W · 36 L | -3.8wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaf15…1068backed Over | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 149 | 51.7%77 W · 72 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Seattle Mariners vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 7.5this page
- Seattle Mariners vs. Texas RangersTexas Rangers won
- Seattle Mariners vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 10.5Under won
- Seattle Mariners vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 6.5Over won
- Seattle Mariners vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 8.5Over won
- Seattle Mariners vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Seattle Mariners (-1.5)Texas Rangers won
- Spread: Seattle Mariners (-2.5)Texas Rangers won
- Spread: Texas Rangers (-1.5)Seattle Mariners won
- Spread: Texas Rangers (-2.5)Seattle Mariners won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Seattle Mariners vs. Texas RangersYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.