MLB · resolved market
Seattle Mariners vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 8.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb5f5f5d9ec74dfa9166bd46e6532eb8955f14f40e8633afb8d54bbcaad99501b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $312,720
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $330,663
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $312,720 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 62 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x547f…2937backed Under | 68c | 128,056$87,078 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87,077.76 | 138 | 56.5%78 W · 60 L | -5.7wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2c33…0563backed Under | 57c | 77,294$44,166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44,166.37 | 856 | 45.3%388 W · 468 L | +18.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +36.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 32c | 71,469$22,876 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48,592.5 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Over | 46c | 19,056$8,821 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,234.56 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 80c | 12,902$10,284 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,284.03 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x625a…f957backed Under | 11c | 6,667$750 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$750 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa598…aa4fbacked Under | 7c | 6,339$424 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$423.8 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc336…1296backed Under | 13c | 6,193$798 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$798.44 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.16per pick | 17cpaid | +62.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 32c | 6,055$1,937 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,117.15 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Under | 56c | 3,234$1,811 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,811 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61f6…e497backed Over | 76c | 2,918$2,223 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$695.21 | 1,879 | 40.6%763 W · 1,116 L | -39.9wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Over | 40c | 2,562$1,019 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,542.76 | 2,969 | 48.4%1,436 W · 1,533 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0e7b…d719backed Under | 16c | 2,188$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.39per pick | 11cpaid | +719.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x70e8…0836backed Under | 16c | 2,188$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.18per pick | 15cpaid | +446.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 69c | 1,805$1,248 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$557.11 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Under | 20c | 1,446$290 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$290.19 | 707 | 37.6%266 W · 441 L | +24.5wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe846…252bbacked Under | 35c | 1,309$460 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$460.11 | 44 | 43.2%19 W · 25 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x02f0…9bb3backed Under | 28c | 1,274$358 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$357.68 | 84 | 40.5%34 W · 50 L | +4.0wins | +0.05per pick | 36cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x39af…dd9dbacked Under | 6c | 1,232$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.95 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed Over | 32c | 1,166$376 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$789.55 | 1,725 | 50.1%864 W · 861 L | -4.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e50…0ea8backed Under | 6c | 1,012$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.36 | 57 | 7%4 W · 53 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 3cpaid | +83%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x57b0…87e4backed Under | 16c | 1,000$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 22cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc9db…6789backed Over | 72c | 526.07$381 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.41 | 267 | 62.2%166 W · 101 L | +43.9wins | +0.16per pick | 46cpaid | +58%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x35e8…9490backed Under | 3c | 516.81$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.48 | 43 | 0%0 W · 43 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 63c | 501.27$317 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184.59 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc2e7…91a2backed Under | 6c | 500$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 56 | 3.6%2 W · 54 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad46…e6a6backed Under | 6c | 500$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 69 | 7.2%5 W · 64 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 4cpaid | +122.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7dde…30b1backed Under | 68c | 492.3$334 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$334.44 | 434 | 59%256 W · 178 L | +19.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7fc2…1be1backed Under | 16c | 383.64$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.38 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ee…9e81backed Over | 63c | 336.31$213 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.53 | 133 | 45.9%61 W · 72 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x428d…8cb6backed Under | 58c | 334.45$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193.98 | 97 | 53.6%52 W · 45 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d9a…dbe1backed Over | 36c | 270.43$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172.43 | 100 | 56%56 W · 44 L | +12.8wins | +0.13per pick | 43cpaid | +34.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f1…3a05backed Under | 36c | 262.34$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.69 | 105 | 48.6%51 W · 54 L | +8.9wins | +0.09per pick | 40cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Over | 42c | 227.47$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.93 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x789c…0d10backed Over | 69c | 205.22$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.62 | 287 | 49.5%142 W · 145 L | -10.5wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5fb3…88c1backed Under | 58c | 188$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.04 | 423 | 55.6%235 W · 188 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Under | 51c | 178.82$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.37 | 3,457 | 51.3%1,772 W · 1,685 L | +108.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9bed…c30bbacked Under | 40c | 134.87$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.83 | 81 | 53.1%43 W · 38 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Under | 52c | 113.35$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.42 | 1,814 | 49.1%891 W · 923 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -12%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d63…9075backed Over | 69c | 109.55$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.02 | 733 | 55.3%405 W · 328 L | +22.3wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Over | 73c | 95.89$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.89 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf422…6aa5backed Over | 25c | 88.4$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.45 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +1.3wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +52.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd27d…fa96backed Over | 33c | 78.58$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.37 | 36 | 38.9%14 W · 22 L | -4.6wins | -0.13per pick | 52cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x294b…22d2backed Over | 41c | 73.17$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.17 | 80 | 46.3%37 W · 43 L | -4.2wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…8c41backed Under | 27c | 55.54$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf02f…1ed8backed Under | 49c | 50.31$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.65 | 1,345 | 47.7%642 W · 703 L | +10.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4638…6b0abacked Over | 79c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.39 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +151.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x99d4…7c0dbacked Under | 61c | 49.8$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.46 | 289 | 48.1%139 W · 150 L | -11.2wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Under | 45c | 45.01$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.33 | 1,927 | 17.2%331 W · 1,596 L | -320.3wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x93ac…2761backed Over | 74c | 42.56$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.07 | 2,583 | 61.4%1,587 W · 996 L | +70.9wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28f7…404dbacked Over | 28c | 39.29$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.29 | 476 | 46.2%220 W · 256 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2792…c4f6backed Over | 74c | 38.25$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.94 | 739 | 49.8%368 W · 371 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b6e…f544backed Under | 68c | 36.76$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 341 | 39.9%136 W · 205 L | -8.7wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x47c9…2038backed Over | 41c | 36.31$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.26 | 474 | 46.6%221 W · 253 L | +26.0wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +13%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0954…012abacked Under | 58c | 34.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1,197 | 53.9%645 W · 552 L | +42.4wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4318…9a94backed Under | 42c | 34.09$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.36 | 94 | 43.6%41 W · 53 L | -4.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xea53…e1ebbacked Under | 59c | 33.9$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 48 | 45.8%22 W · 26 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbf9c…3648backed Over | 74c | 33.19$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.63 | 1,733 | 49%849 W · 884 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Under | 58c | 28.55$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.55 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x68e1…b2fabacked Over | 48c | 28$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.56 | 147 | 52.4%77 W · 70 L | +5.5wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x96f9…6c15backed Under | 51c | 26.92$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.62 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6e9b…f703backed Under | 68c | 26.1$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.75 | 38 | 50%19 W · 19 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Seattle Mariners vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 8.5this page
- Seattle Mariners vs. Texas RangersTexas Rangers won
- Seattle Mariners vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 10.5Under won
- Seattle Mariners vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 6.5Over won
- Seattle Mariners vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 7.5Over won
- Seattle Mariners vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Seattle Mariners (-1.5)Texas Rangers won
- Spread: Seattle Mariners (-2.5)Texas Rangers won
- Spread: Texas Rangers (-1.5)Seattle Mariners won
- Spread: Texas Rangers (-2.5)Seattle Mariners won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Seattle Mariners vs. Texas RangersYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.