NHL · resolved market
Golden Knights vs. Stars: O/U 5.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1d78c7b433f513cd3092151334ecd936f3640ff6563482a8f1362dc64d2b78c1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,139
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,139 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Under | 59c | 1,298$771 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$527.01 | 1,846 | 57.2%1,055 W · 791 L | +85.0wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9d8a…5201backed Over | 41c | 1,250$513 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$512.5 | 54 | 35.2%19 W · 35 L | -4.3wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7298…fe8dbacked Over | 54c | 940$508 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$507.6 | 332 | 43.7%145 W · 187 L | -16.1wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x42b5…b5b6backed Over | 54c | 801.17$432 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$432.39 | 1,377 | 49.1%676 W · 701 L | +39.2wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd36…6ec9backed Under | 46c | 740$340 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$399.6 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | -4.3wins | -0.17per pick | 53cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 44c | 718.69$318 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$400.96 | 2,894 | 51.3%1,484 W · 1,410 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xecfc…cd05backed Over | 55c | 708$390 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$390.07 | 868 | 52.4%455 W · 413 L | +7.0wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x20d6…3856backed Under | 46c | 647.04$298 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$349.4 | 268 | 49.6%133 W · 135 L | +5.9wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf41a…ea2bbacked Under | 45c | 556.77$251 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$306.22 | 919 | 45.6%419 W · 500 L | -27.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84d9…76dbbacked Over | 55c | 382.13$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210 | 485 | 52.2%253 W · 232 L | +8.1wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4103…9b9ebacked Over | 56c | 305.45$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170 | 288 | 42%121 W · 167 L | -12.4wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4112…5d9dbacked Under | 45c | 255.82$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.3 | 156 | 51.3%80 W · 76 L | +5.9wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8c58…e330backed Over | 31c | 230.69$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.46 | 422 | 54.3%229 W · 193 L | +18.3wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f1…d87bbacked Under | 45c | 226.25$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.27 | 77 | 46.8%36 W · 41 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd0e7…b14fbacked Over | 55c | 184$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.2 | 366 | 48.6%178 W · 188 L | -14.5wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c08…af98backed Under | 69c | 174.46$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.46 | 337 | 56.4%190 W · 147 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed Under | 46c | 170.65$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.15 | 764 | 50.4%385 W · 379 L | +7.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x34fa…f491backed Under | 45c | 160$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88 | 599 | 50.4%302 W · 297 L | +20.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0e01…7ef0backed Under | 46c | 119.4$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.48 | 76 | 35.5%27 W · 49 L | -12.1wins | -0.16per pick | 51cpaid | -33%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x3eee…e8b6backed Over | 55c | 119.4$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.67 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -2.6wins | -0.12per pick | 50cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Over | 31c | 119$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.32 | 893 | 55.5%496 W · 397 L | +67.6wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x84ef…cdd9backed Over | 55c | 109.29$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 156 | 49.4%77 W · 79 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Under | 44c | 102$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.12 | 1,190 | 50.7%603 W · 587 L | +13.3wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Under | 45c | 100$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55 | 624 | 47.3%295 W · 329 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8c16…4b37backed Under | 70c | 69$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.7 | 218 | 56.4%123 W · 95 L | +10.1wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Under | 71c | 68.9$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.98 | 1,202 | 60.1%722 W · 480 L | +51.9wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +15%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xab41…c453backed Over | 29c | 68.9$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.98 | 1,431 | 58.3%834 W · 597 L | +81.0wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x808d…f5debacked Over | 56c | 62.61$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -2.0wins | -0.12per pick | 56cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Over | 37c | 62.61$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.17 | 2,664 | 51.6%1,375 W · 1,289 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d42…f124backed Over | 48c | 60.07$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.93 | 133 | 48.1%64 W · 69 L | +4.5wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 25c | 54.47$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.49 | 3,704 | 50.5%1,871 W · 1,833 L | +105.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Under | 68c | 53$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.96 | 920 | 49.7%457 W · 463 L | +14.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3bc5…7ac4backed Over | 55c | 45.54$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 94 | 52.1%49 W · 45 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0e0a…745dbacked Under | 45c | 44$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.2 | 61 | 45.9%28 W · 33 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa559…6dbbbacked Over | 32c | 40$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.64 | 234 | 50%117 W · 117 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc53…6bd3backed Over | 55c | 36.43$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 540 | 49.4%267 W · 273 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5337…222bbacked Under | 45c | 33$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.15 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | -1.8wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3100…9bc9backed Under | 46c | 32.35$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.47 | 118 | 55.9%66 W · 52 L | +7.4wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +13%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8dcd…74c6backed Under | 46c | 22.72$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.27 | 34 | 58.8%20 W · 14 L | +3.4wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xea58…b635backed Under | 67c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.95 | 44 | 43.2%19 W · 25 L | -3.7wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Golden Knights vs. Stars: O/U 5.5this page
- Golden Knights vs. StarsStars won
- Golden Knights vs. Stars: O/U 4.5Under won
- Golden Knights vs. Stars: O/U 6.5Under won
- Golden Knights vs. Stars: O/U 7.5Under won
- Spread: Stars (-1.5)Golden Knights won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.