Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 82-83°F on February 28?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1dc6f4d6c5bf92f02e5807da07808f56666469b6fcf81f0a70088693c3fd127d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,554
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $24,220
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,554 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 69 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x827b…906bbacked No | 21c | 1,029$213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$212.71 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.19per pick | 39cpaid | -75%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 17c | 997.01$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$827.22 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa96a…1377backed No | 49c | 599.88$292 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$291.6 | 541 | 43.6%236 W · 305 L | -12.9wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x47af…3999backed Yes | 13c | 400$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$347.46 | 326 | 52.1%170 W · 156 L | +7.6wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x91d9…141dbacked Yes | 10c | 315.06$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$283.25 | 1,256 | 38.2%480 W · 776 L | +53.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7d72…8e62backed Yes | 9c | 299.99$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$272.99 | 1,817 | 8.1%148 W · 1,669 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb01…43bbbacked Yes | 21c | 297.51$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$235.83 | 739 | 27.3%202 W · 537 L | +10.3wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 32c | 294.07$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$199.61 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32a8…4043backed Yes | 31c | 268.98$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$185.78 | 34 | 23.5%8 W · 26 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e7f…44d4backed No | 67c | 202.98$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.55 | 249 | 66.7%166 W · 83 L | +15.3wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4b40…96e3backed Yes | 31c | 183.45$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.58 | 522 | 45%235 W · 287 L | -13.2wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x331b…193fbacked Yes | 14c | 170.74$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.34 | 900 | 40.7%366 W · 534 L | +112.3wins | +0.12per pick | 28cpaid | +63.8%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x2967…4ae7backed Yes | 11c | 151.45$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.93 | 257 | 25.7%66 W · 191 L | +7.0wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +21.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e40…224ebacked No | 72c | 138.07$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 123 | 57.7%71 W · 52 L | -10.9wins | -0.09per pick | 67cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd229…fcd6backed Yes | 13c | 130$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.1 | 1,242 | 16.7%207 W · 1,035 L | -22.0wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x45c9…a3d1backed No | 71c | 124.42$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.87 | 275 | 60%165 W · 110 L | +7.9wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb581…0308backed Yes | 31c | 118$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.52 | 358 | 43.9%157 W · 201 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 67c | 116.59$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.53 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad13…7ed6backed No | 66c | 114.41$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.49 | 919 | 67%616 W · 303 L | -10.6wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 17c | 114$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x594e…1c11backed Yes | 19c | 105.15$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.67 | 661 | 44.5%294 W · 367 L | +57.8wins | +0.09per pick | 36cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6750…2f93backed Yes | 13c | 103$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.43 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +1.7wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | +168.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf4ad…d00bbacked Yes | 28c | 100$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72 | 490 | 38.8%190 W · 300 L | +24.4wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3f48…7825backed No | 67c | 100$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.18 | 106 | 14.2%15 W · 91 L | -4.1wins | -0.04per pick | 18cpaid | -57.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 48c | 94.93$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.37 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x4279…9f1bbacked Yes | 28c | 80.96$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.53 | 100 | 43%43 W · 57 L | +9.0wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe6f7…bfd3backed Yes | 34c | 80.91$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.29 | 194 | 26.3%51 W · 143 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0461…fcbcbacked No | 26c | 80$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.1 | 724 | 66.2%479 W · 245 L | +33.6wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4c4e…b978backed No | 75c | 78.38$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.04 | 50 | 46%23 W · 27 L | +6.5wins | +0.13per pick | 33cpaid | +38.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 69c | 75.76$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.79 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x324c…df74backed No | 71c | 70.4$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.98 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7817…d4b1backed Yes | 27c | 65.29$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.66 | 54 | 20.4%11 W · 43 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5bf8…ccf6backed Yes | 32c | 60.2$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.2 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x80bd…1f70backed Yes | 31c | 57.68$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.58 | 41 | 56.1%23 W · 18 L | +6.1wins | +0.15per pick | 41cpaid | +40.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4742…a58dbacked Yes | 34c | 55.35$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.75 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked No | 72c | 55.32$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.58 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4635…6c48backed Yes | 37c | 54.56$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.56 | 67 | 35.8%24 W · 43 L | -7.2wins | -0.11per pick | 47cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x720a…0a49backed No | 70c | 52.14$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.66 | 118 | 78.8%93 W · 25 L | +9.3wins | +0.08per pick | 71cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa4c8…34efbacked Yes | 28c | 50$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.8 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -3.2wins | -0.16per pick | 46cpaid | -43.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x87c7…d1b6backed No | 72c | 50$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 287 | 37.6%108 W · 179 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x03d0…d647backed Yes | 41c | 50$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.5 | 103 | 52.4%54 W · 49 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc3a2…7e2fbacked Yes | 31c | 49.74$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.4 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x989a…b73fbacked Yes | 58c | 49.63$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.06 | 181 | 64.1%116 W · 65 L | +29.3wins | +0.16per pick | 48cpaid | +37%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x1e54…ad5dbacked Yes | 34c | 44.44$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.44 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -36%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe131…cf95backed Yes | 34c | 42.53$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.07 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +42.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc6fb…3bdfbacked No | 69c | 42.08$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.16 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7dfa…73acbacked Yes | 32c | 39.99$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.34 | 1,022 | 30.6%313 W · 709 L | +17.2wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x531e…a7b3backed Yes | 40c | 39.52$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.52 | 50 | 48%24 W · 26 L | +3.1wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 59c | 36.31$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.49 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46ad…a131backed No | 75c | 35.28$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.42 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +52.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb2f6…5d2dbacked Yes | 30c | 33.9$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.78 | 77 | 19.5%15 W · 62 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3865…fcbebacked No | 69c | 33.19$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.76 | 1,002 | 60.9%610 W · 392 L | -26.2wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x36c2…2b8cbacked No | 65c | 30.8$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.02 | 707 | 70.2%496 W · 211 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 71cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35c4…d144backed No | 75c | 30$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.64 | 1,255 | 62.5%785 W · 470 L | +99.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd22b…acfcbacked No | 72c | 29.89$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.64 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.22per pick | 56cpaid | -38.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7943…27a1backed No | 70c | 29.09$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.36 | 320 | 44.7%143 W · 177 L | +9.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x39a2…00e3backed Yes | 35c | 29$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.85 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +1.4wins | +0.15per pick | 29cpaid | +42.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x034f…ca6bbacked No | 74c | 26.7$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.83 | 36 | 58.3%21 W · 15 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf845…7c31backed No | 70c | 24.14$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 89 | 57.3%51 W · 38 L | +7.9wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb2b1…4a60backed No | 69c | 20.69$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.36 | 25 | 64%16 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 61c | 20.33$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.45 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9a31…b2c2backed No | 73c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.6 | 38 | 31.6%12 W · 26 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x22b3…53f6backed No | 78c | 19.23$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.78per pick | 78cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…b720backed No | 67c | 16.64$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.16 | 981 | 60.6%594 W · 387 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b4e…d839backed No | 70c | 16.16$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.32 | 227 | 28.6%65 W · 162 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x953a…9dedbacked No | 68c | 16.15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.95 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.11per pick | 55cpaid | +47.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d28…a6ecbacked Yes | 70c | 15.35$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.65 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.24per pick | 60cpaid | +51.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2e70…50ebbacked No | 71c | 15.1$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.65 | 315 | 67%211 W · 104 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d84…2c45backed No | 70c | 15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 34 | 58.8%20 W · 14 L | -2.2wins | -0.07per pick | 65cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 82-83°F on February 28?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 88°F or higher on February 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 74-75°F on February 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 76-77°F on February 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 78-79°F on February 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 80-81°F on February 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 84-85°F on February 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 86-87°F on February 28?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.