Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 84-85°F on February 28?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd51f5aefdb4e460244fff9ada7536983ca267428244d7bd7fbf66146e42643d7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,934
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,703
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,934 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 79 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7764…29d3backed Yes | 1c | 4,911$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.88 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 20c | 1,143$223 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$223.34 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa96a…1377backed No | 61c | 835.79$513 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$322.4 | 541 | 43.6%236 W · 305 L | -12.9wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbc13…5eb6backed No | 69c | 330.14$227 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.59 | 517 | 62.3%322 W · 195 L | -15.5wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d72…8e62backed Yes | 9c | 300$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 1,817 | 8.1%148 W · 1,669 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad13…7ed6backed No | 65c | 242.94$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.22 | 919 | 67%616 W · 303 L | -10.6wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0574…e49fbacked Yes | 37c | 238.05$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87 | 67 | 29.9%20 W · 47 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32a8…4043backed Yes | 31c | 220$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.4 | 34 | 23.5%8 W · 26 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb01…43bbbacked Yes | 47c | 174.28$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.91 | 739 | 27.3%202 W · 537 L | +10.3wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbdf6…c61bbacked Yes | 47c | 170.45$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.7 | 608 | 51.2%311 W · 297 L | -24.0wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xea83…7393backed No | 62c | 165.98$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.07 | 1,445 | 60.1%868 W · 577 L | +5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 33c | 164.19$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.88 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ec4…6f33backed Yes | 7c | 152.71$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.24 | 41 | 39%16 W · 25 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd229…fcd6backed Yes | 12c | 150$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 1,242 | 16.7%207 W · 1,035 L | -22.0wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x827b…906bbacked Yes | 68c | 146.25$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.19per pick | 39cpaid | -75%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf84d…5e65backed No | 68c | 141.79$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.08 | 92 | 56.5%52 W · 40 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb581…0308backed Yes | 41c | 125$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.7 | 358 | 43.9%157 W · 201 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 34c | 123.07$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.73 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d42…f124backed No | 28c | 119.88$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.08 | 523 | 22.6%118 W · 405 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe6f7…bfd3backed Yes | 37c | 115.91$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.73 | 194 | 26.3%51 W · 143 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa67d…c6f9backed Yes | 29c | 99.99$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 250 | 29.2%73 W · 177 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e7f…44d4backed No | 67c | 98.45$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.63 | 249 | 66.7%166 W · 83 L | +15.3wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x36aa…a683backed Yes | 15c | 84.79$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 45 | 20%9 W · 36 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4c8…34efbacked Yes | 74c | 74.99$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.48 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -3.2wins | -0.16per pick | 46cpaid | -43.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4b40…96e3backed No | 68c | 74.59$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.87 | 522 | 45%235 W · 287 L | -13.2wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x47af…3999backed No | 68c | 74.05$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.69 | 326 | 52.1%170 W · 156 L | +7.6wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x69b2…e50abacked Yes | 44c | 68.34$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 41 | 36.6%15 W · 26 L | -6.5wins | -0.16per pick | 52cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x5bf8…ccf6backed Yes | 39c | 64.82$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.97 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x594e…1c11backed No | 79c | 63.39$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.59 | 661 | 44.5%294 W · 367 L | +57.8wins | +0.09per pick | 36cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x726c…e6f0backed No | 63c | 63.33$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.43 | 79 | 36.7%29 W · 50 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6077…8a56backed Yes | 33c | 60.7$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 109 | 56.9%62 W · 47 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9532…7c44backed Yes | 28c | 57.5$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.1 | 36 | 22.2%8 W · 28 L | -3.0wins | -0.08per pick | 31cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe1b7…13bebacked Yes | 32c | 57.05$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7817…d4b1backed Yes | 40c | 50.63$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.25 | 54 | 20.4%11 W · 43 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b4c…efa9backed Yes | 49c | 49.27$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 122 | 30.3%37 W · 85 L | -11.5wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa305…0a6ebacked Yes | 48c | 47.53$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.88 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb2b1…4a60backed No | 65c | 42.91$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.85 | 25 | 64%16 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e4…eec0backed Yes | 47c | 42.55$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4742…a58dbacked Yes | 49c | 41.14$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.2 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x306d…7a38backed Yes | 35c | 39.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 667 | 35.4%236 W · 431 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7dfa…73acbacked Yes | 37c | 39.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.91 | 1,022 | 30.6%313 W · 709 L | +17.2wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4303…a198backed No | 66c | 39.36$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.42 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked No | 61c | 38.31$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.94 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xab6d…4238backed No | 73c | 37.99$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.26 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 76cpaid | +4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x42b0…7e32backed Yes | 37c | 36.22$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.4 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x324b…3fe4backed Yes | 57c | 35.23$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4b66…3907backed Yes | 36c | 33$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.88 | 53 | 39.6%21 W · 32 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1b06…978dbacked Yes | 41c | 32.61$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.28 | 30 | 23.3%7 W · 23 L | -4.5wins | -0.15per pick | 38cpaid | -42.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc42f…14debacked Yes | 34c | 32$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.88 | 45 | 35.6%16 W · 29 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x18a1…e6d8backed Yes | 36c | 30.33$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.84 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9d1b…4f09backed Yes | 60c | 30$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 105 | 37.1%39 W · 66 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad62…2aa9backed Yes | 34c | 30$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.26 | 165 | 32.7%54 W · 111 L | +5.7wins | +0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x36c2…2b8cbacked No | 67c | 29.89$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 707 | 70.2%496 W · 211 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 71cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4635…6c48backed Yes | 37c | 29.85$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.94 | 67 | 35.8%24 W · 43 L | -7.2wins | -0.11per pick | 47cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x98c4…5d90backed No | 68c | 29.78$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.53 | 41 | 61%25 W · 16 L | -4.1wins | -0.10per pick | 71cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3865…fcbebacked No | 74c | 28.91$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 1,002 | 60.9%610 W · 392 L | -26.2wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf413…3f6cbacked No | 51c | 28.24$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.93 | 58 | 62.1%36 W · 22 L | +2.7wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf43…644fbacked No | 66c | 27.98$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.56 | 25 | 28%7 W · 18 L | -4.7wins | -0.19per pick | 47cpaid | -53.3%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7505…0807backed Yes | 74c | 27$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.98 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e02…3920backed Yes | 39c | 26.68$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.51 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x900a…59cebacked No | 72c | 26.53$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.41 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6750…2f93backed Yes | 58c | 26$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.16 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +1.7wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | +168.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 67c | 25.02$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.28 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x450f…865cbacked No | 67c | 24.72$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.16 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.30per pick | 64cpaid | -50.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x22f1…ef74backed No | 64c | 22.33$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.93 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +55.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d2b…815abacked No | 65c | 22$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.75 | 102 | 64.7%66 W · 36 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 52c | 20.86$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeaaa…1d0ebacked Yes | 58c | 20.34$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.84 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | -4.7wins | -0.22per pick | 46cpaid | -52.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 68c | 20.23$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.49 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x13a8…642bbacked No | 57c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.68 | 28 | 53.6%15 W · 13 L | -3.5wins | -0.12per pick | 66cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xad78…678cbacked No | 54c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.15 | 18 | 77.8%14 W · 4 L | +2.2wins | +0.12per pick | 66cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7943…27a1backed Yes | 70c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 320 | 44.7%143 W · 177 L | +9.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfc31…63a1backed No | 55c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 43 | 34.9%15 W · 28 L | +4.1wins | +0.10per pick | 25cpaid | +48%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5830…f928backed Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -2.4wins | -0.13per pick | 47cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x246d…e1b2backed No | 64c | 18.8$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.77 | 60 | 71.7%43 W · 17 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 73cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2cc0…b5f2backed No | 65c | 18.46$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.42 | 133 | 60.9%81 W · 52 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d28…a6ecbacked No | 72c | 15.37$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.38 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.24per pick | 60cpaid | +51.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7d84…2c45backed No | 67c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.9 | 34 | 58.8%20 W · 14 L | -2.2wins | -0.07per pick | 65cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0a3c…4fecbacked No | 68c | 14.98$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.74 | 52 | 50%26 W · 26 L | +2.5wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 84-85°F on February 28?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 88°F or higher on February 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 74-75°F on February 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 76-77°F on February 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 78-79°F on February 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 80-81°F on February 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 82-83°F on February 28?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 86-87°F on February 28?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.