Champions League · resolved market
Arsenal FC leading at halftime?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1ddb55b0c51599217ece690b2e78e4c6b3c7abffd6b4e196d1dc679ce419d4ac
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Champions Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,933
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,933 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 51 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Champions League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Champions League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 62c | 3,160$1,948 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,212.65 | 1,994 | 43.9%875 W · 1,119 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9592…a85bbacked Yes | 48c | 2,020$960 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$959.8 | 82 | 41.5%34 W · 48 L | +3.6wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | +45.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xecfc…cd05backed Yes | 47c | 1,390$660 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$660.2 | 293 | 50.5%148 W · 145 L | +13.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +24.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked No | 52c | 1,171$609 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$562.3 | 153 | 49.7%76 W · 77 L | -7.0wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1420…9daabacked Yes | 30c | 653.69$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.98 | 45 | 44.4%20 W · 25 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8eea…df80backed Yes | 48c | 619.41$296 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$296 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e7c…164dbacked No | 51c | 500$255 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$245 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.14per pick | 48cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed No | 53c | 500$265 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$235 | 387 | 48.3%187 W · 200 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6c0e…62f0backed Yes | 46c | 499.99$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -2.3wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked No | 54c | 499.99$270 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$230 | 403 | 50.9%205 W · 198 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked No | 52c | 360.21$187 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172.85 | 260 | 47.7%124 W · 136 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x20ad…a7c6backed No | 56c | 313.29$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.84 | 150 | 38.7%58 W · 92 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x23cc…4f5abacked Yes | 24c | 285.32$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.13 | 51 | 25.5%13 W · 38 L | -2.1wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa910…0777backed Yes | 48c | 250$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +2.6wins | +0.14per pick | 47cpaid | +25.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed No | 52c | 244.56$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.96 | 31 | 35.5%11 W · 20 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc155…e36bbacked No | 53c | 219.53$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.25 | 41 | 61%25 W · 16 L | +2.4wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfe3b…0533backed Yes | 48c | 208.54$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -1.2wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -55%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3b5e…3c51backed Yes | 34c | 198.25$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.78 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.10per pick | 54cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 20c | 161.46$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.03 | 212 | 17%36 W · 176 L | -37.2wins | -0.18per pick | 35cpaid | -69.3%equal weight | 33-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x373a…f4c1backed No | 53c | 148.94$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70 | 57 | 59.6%34 W · 23 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2dc0…e57dbacked Yes | 45c | 123.52$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 53 | 30.2%16 W · 37 L | +4.5wins | +0.09per pick | 22cpaid | +30.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x133a…f9d1backed No | 54c | 120$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.8 | 80 | 51.3%41 W · 39 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43e8…af56backed No | 53c | 113.21$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.21 | 69 | 40.6%28 W · 41 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -17%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc26c…ffddbacked Yes | 38c | 101.09$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x064f…e8e6backed Yes | 20c | 67.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.92 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.16per pick | 41cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf02f…1ed8backed No | 53c | 67.64$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.93 | 158 | 47.5%75 W · 83 L | +7.4wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x252f…4f62backed Yes | 48c | 62.85$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 58 | 43.1%25 W · 33 L | +3.2wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x62f5…7845backed Yes | 48c | 62.58$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa9d…8ce0backed Yes | 47c | 53.19$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 34 | 41.2%14 W · 20 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4148…4397backed Yes | 48c | 51.92$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 32 | 53.1%17 W · 15 L | +3.1wins | +0.10per pick | 43cpaid | +34%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6c82…6150backed No | 52c | 50$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 344 | 49.7%171 W · 173 L | -15.3wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf39a…fe47backed No | 53c | 48.99$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.03 | 86 | 58.1%50 W · 36 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f2c…9d16backed Yes | 29c | 48.28$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 24 | 29.2%7 W · 17 L | -2.2wins | -0.09per pick | 38cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8a4e…0781backed No | 53c | 47.17$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.17 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +2.1wins | +0.14per pick | 39cpaid | +29.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x345d…4e41backed No | 54c | 43.31$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.92 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.6wins | +0.24per pick | 48cpaid | +29.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1bbe…1559backed Yes | 47c | 42.55$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +2.4wins | +0.12per pick | 43cpaid | +45.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2996…73debacked Yes | 48c | 41.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6094…ace4backed Yes | 48c | 41.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -16%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbce0…d031backed Yes | 47c | 31.91$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0040…9eb8backed Yes | 47c | 31.91$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 107 | 60.7%65 W · 42 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 45c | 29.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 257 | 35%90 W · 167 L | -7.7wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x849f…0665backed No | 53c | 29.84$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.02 | 99 | 48.5%48 W · 51 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed No | 51c | 28.02$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.73 | 502 | 47.2%237 W · 265 L | -8.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc314…3501backed Yes | 41c | 26.83$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb116…a679backed No | 55c | 26.45$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.9 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +81.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa16c…530bbacked Yes | 46c | 25.96$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeca1…57e4backed Yes | 48c | 24.96$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.88 | 66 | 48.5%32 W · 34 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcbb7…8462backed Yes | 46c | 24.32$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5037…a863backed No | 53c | 22.64$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.64 | 25 | 68%17 W · 8 L | +4.2wins | +0.17per pick | 51cpaid | +30.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2b5c…ab22backed No | 51c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +92.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5cbd…e9d2backed No | 54c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.23per pick | 57cpaid | +43.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Champions League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Arsenal FC leading at halftime?this page
- Bayer 04 Leverkusen leading at halftime?No won
- Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs. Arsenal FC: Draw at halftime?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.