CS2 · resolved market
Map Handicap: AUR (-1.5) vs B8 (+1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1de2a1ddd38d05d07cedbffd838f953d5246465c8222e9c49f5d2c19f18cb689
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Aurora Gamingof Aurora Gaming, B8
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,892
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,347
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,892 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in CS2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1867…92cabacked B8 | 59c | 10,312$6,084 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,083.95 | 65 | 55.4%36 W · 29 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb7f5…c669backed Aurora Gaming | 41c | 7,500$3,075 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,424.99 | 670 | 41.8%280 W · 390 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf988…d63bbacked Aurora Gaming | 41c | 1,947$798 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,148.68 | 358 | 50.8%182 W · 176 L | +11.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ec4…6529backed Aurora Gaming | 43c | 1,288$560 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$727.8 | 89 | 44.9%40 W · 49 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb9ab…f282backed B8 | 55c | 800$440 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$440 | 1,081 | 50.9%550 W · 531 L | +37.9wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa097…8795backed B8 | 59c | 627.12$370 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$370 | 173 | 47.4%82 W · 91 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd14…2267backed Aurora Gaming | 40c | 440$176 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$264 | 5,830 | 37.8%2,203 W · 3,627 L | +79.0wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0659…d74dbacked Aurora Gaming | 41c | 310.76$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184.53 | 980 | 52.4%514 W · 466 L | +26.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1a8d…ab7ebacked Aurora Gaming | 40c | 300$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180 | 168 | 46.4%78 W · 90 L | +6.9wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed B8 | 60c | 273$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.8 | 259 | 34%88 W · 171 L | -8.6wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4c8c…2359backed Aurora Gaming | 41c | 266$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157 | 93 | 51.6%48 W · 45 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb5b7…7ffabacked Aurora Gaming | 41c | 265.85$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.85 | 102 | 51%52 W · 50 L | +7.6wins | +0.07per pick | 44cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xee4b…43dcbacked Aurora Gaming | 41c | 155$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.45 | 380 | 51.3%195 W · 185 L | +12.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x79c9…b2f1backed Aurora Gaming | 38c | 131.97$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.82 | 116 | 38.8%45 W · 71 L | +4.8wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8c34…2d7dbacked B8 | 61c | 97.12$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.01 | 91 | 51.6%47 W · 44 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd055…28d0backed B8 | 60c | 70.46$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.28 | 655 | 46.9%307 W · 348 L | +18.4wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0106…0e63backed Aurora Gaming | 44c | 70$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.2 | 75 | 46.7%35 W · 40 L | +2.8wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x53ab…65aabacked B8 | 56c | 70$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.2 | 1,144 | 49.4%565 W · 579 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5056…db7dbacked Aurora Gaming | 40c | 68.93$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.16 | 54 | 53.7%29 W · 25 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc0af…5490backed B8 | 59c | 61.02$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 92 | 60.9%56 W · 36 L | +5.5wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x10ad…827cbacked B8 | 60c | 60$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 306 | 39.5%121 W · 185 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4f3…999fbacked Aurora Gaming | 41c | 60$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.4 | 251 | 43.8%110 W · 141 L | -6.9wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfc8b…d3d6backed B8 | 60c | 60$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 40 | 30%12 W · 28 L | -5.6wins | -0.14per pick | 44cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 41-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3763…345fbacked B8 | 59c | 50$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.5 | 535 | 45%241 W · 294 L | -11.6wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked B8 | 60c | 40.89$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.53 | 1,714 | 46.7%801 W · 913 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4fb0…6197backed Aurora Gaming | 41c | 37.28$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 89 | 58.4%52 W · 37 L | +7.2wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc76e…caa5backed B8 | 62c | 32.26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 187 | 50.3%94 W · 93 L | -8.5wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -10%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd85…6a32backed B8 | 62c | 31.28$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.39 | 31 | 51.6%16 W · 15 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9fe…e4bebacked Aurora Gaming | 49c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.3 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e19…d2b0backed B8 | 51c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.3 | 527 | 50.7%267 W · 260 L | +17.8wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9cf7…a506backed Aurora Gaming | 55c | 23.43$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.59 | 47 | 59.6%28 W · 19 L | +5.3wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc209…7924backed B8 | 62c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 266 | 60.9%162 W · 104 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Map Handicap: AUR (-1.5) vs B8 (+1.5)this page
- Counter-Strike: B8 vs Aurora Gaming (BO3) - PGL Cluj-Napoca Group StageAurora Gaming won
- Counter-Strike: B8 vs Aurora Gaming - Map 1 WinnerAurora Gaming won
- Counter-Strike: B8 vs Aurora Gaming - Map 2 WinnerAurora Gaming won
- Games Total: O/U 2.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.