Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 78-79°F on February 26?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1df6a27c75c95f33c4187472d16098f7f0c5ccfe7fa83edd4f920b54c0a2f075
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $26,395
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $34,922
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $26,395 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 62 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed No | 5c | 2,040$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.15 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x100a…c6cebacked No | 1c | 2,000$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 255 | 4.3%11 W · 244 L | +8.3wins | +0.03per pick | 1cpaid | +221.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf516…1ea1backed Yes | 65c | 618.43$401 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$216.99 | 51 | 35.3%18 W · 33 L | +2.2wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa96a…1377backed No | 7c | 533.96$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.04 | 541 | 43.6%236 W · 305 L | -12.9wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 6c | 359.77$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x8929…733ebacked No | 18c | 253.07$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.74 | 564 | 24.5%138 W · 426 L | -18.3wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b75…ed49backed Yes | 50c | 238.31$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.31 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | +4.6wins | +0.18per pick | 42cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7a42…8da8backed Yes | 41c | 214.79$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.1 | 388 | 40.7%158 W · 230 L | -14.9wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 38c | 194.7$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.69 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x324c…df74backed No | 47c | 138.6$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.98 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 30c | 133.51$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.39 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xa37d…b2b4backed No | 38c | 126.08$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.45 | 321 | 57.3%184 W · 137 L | +17.4wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xad13…7ed6backed No | 56c | 122.92$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.92 | 919 | 67%616 W · 303 L | -10.6wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b22…8945backed No | 61c | 116.18$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.46 | 253 | 41.5%105 W · 148 L | -13.3wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +27.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 55c | 102.03$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.55 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 42c | 93.77$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.79 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x87c7…d1b6backed Yes | 31c | 90.4$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.37 | 287 | 37.6%108 W · 179 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a1…3840backed Yes | 43c | 82$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.86 | 1,153 | 27.1%312 W · 841 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e9e…648fbacked No | 57c | 79.73$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.48 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x47af…3999backed No | 65c | 77.52$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.39 | 326 | 52.1%170 W · 156 L | +7.6wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a38…ada9backed Yes | 36c | 75$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 236 | 33.1%78 W · 158 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc135…a01abacked Yes | 71c | 74.9$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.7 | 616 | 59.3%365 W · 251 L | +68.7wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +17%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xa717…faeabacked No | 43c | 74.43$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.76 | 311 | 70.7%220 W · 91 L | +42.3wins | +0.14per pick | 57cpaid | +30.8%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xb25e…a93bbacked Yes | 54c | 74.33$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.82 | 234 | 36.3%85 W · 149 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 43c | 74$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.16 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d84…2c45backed No | 45c | 60.63$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.23 | 34 | 58.8%20 W · 14 L | -2.2wins | -0.07per pick | 65cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x252b…dfc9backed No | 55c | 53.92$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.81 | 61 | 44.3%27 W · 34 L | -4.8wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3c00…1c78backed No | 47c | 51.53$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.2 | 153 | 30.7%47 W · 106 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c4e…b978backed Yes | 68c | 50.96$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.1 | 50 | 46%23 W · 27 L | +6.5wins | +0.13per pick | 33cpaid | +38.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x672f…13ccbacked Yes | 70c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.2 | 330 | 58.8%194 W · 136 L | +10.8wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x531e…a7b3backed Yes | 51c | 49.82$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.23 | 50 | 48%24 W · 26 L | +3.1wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfe88…e756backed Yes | 40c | 41.01$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.59 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +46%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a3c…4fecbacked No | 59c | 40.9$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.1 | 52 | 50%26 W · 26 L | +2.5wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb4f7…5a55backed Yes | 50c | 40.23$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.23 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa67d…c6f9backed Yes | 35c | 40$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.88 | 250 | 29.2%73 W · 177 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a31…b2c2backed No | 30c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 38 | 31.6%12 W · 26 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x306d…7a38backed Yes | 36c | 39.99$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.59 | 667 | 35.4%236 W · 431 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xddbb…bc3abacked Yes | 54c | 36.03$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.46 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf18…f5c3backed Yes | 40c | 35.71$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.43 | 110 | 44.5%49 W · 61 L | +6.3wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2a35…6387backed Yes | 35c | 35$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.65 | 59 | 28.8%17 W · 42 L | -3.4wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe19c…0b8dbacked Yes | 65c | 34.31$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.16 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +54.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9837…8bf8backed Yes | 75c | 34.22$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.41 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x36c2…2b8cbacked No | 59c | 33.89$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.99 | 707 | 70.2%496 W · 211 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 71cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 55c | 31.38$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.25 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe8a0…dafabacked No | 64c | 31.16$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3865…fcbebacked No | 49c | 30.42$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.91 | 1,002 | 60.9%610 W · 392 L | -26.2wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5093…272cbacked Yes | 45c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.5 | 727 | 26.4%192 W · 535 L | +63.8wins | +0.09per pick | 18cpaid | +47.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 57c | 27.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.95 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0574…e49fbacked No | 58c | 25.75$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 67 | 29.9%20 W · 47 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeaaa…1d0ebacked Yes | 51c | 25.49$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.49 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | -4.7wins | -0.22per pick | 46cpaid | -52.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa305…0a6ebacked Yes | 51c | 25$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.25 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xade1…9040backed Yes | 53c | 25$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.75 | 338 | 39.9%135 W · 203 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d77…a694backed No | 50c | 24.56$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.28 | 1,160 | 57.3%665 W · 495 L | +20.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x982c…40d8backed Yes | 50c | 23.96$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.96 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +62.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc2d9…274cbacked Yes | 58c | 22.24$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.41 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.13per pick | 38cpaid | -61.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4950…d8edbacked Yes | 51c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01c0…5443backed Yes | 53c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.5 | 187 | 40.6%76 W · 111 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30c8…446cbacked No | 54c | 19$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.26 | 52 | 25%13 W · 39 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5830…f928backed Yes | 65c | 18$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.3 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -2.4wins | -0.13per pick | 47cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe9da…ed70backed No | 60c | 17.9$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.74 | 763 | 71.4%545 W · 218 L | +11.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7ce…2b6fbacked No | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -2.2wins | -0.25per pick | 58cpaid | -47.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3ed8…42a4backed No | 69c | 15.04$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.36 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 78-79°F on February 26?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be 73°F or below on February 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be 88°F or higher on February 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 74-75°F on February 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 76-77°F on February 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 80-81°F on February 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 82-83°F on February 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 84-85°F on February 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on February 26?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.