Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 80-81°F on February 26?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xae223c0b9f521058bc9b30123033f9b7f12eb67fd7fe09ddff4e3d06d0081759
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,351
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,374
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,351 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 53 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 4c | 1,050$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.15 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5093…272cbacked Yes | 4c | 570$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.7 | 727 | 26.4%192 W · 535 L | +63.8wins | +0.09per pick | 18cpaid | +47.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 17c | 523.47$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.61 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 27c | 325.66$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.43 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 20c | 233$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.92 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8929…733ebacked Yes | 9c | 216.11$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.02 | 564 | 24.5%138 W · 426 L | -18.3wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x39c9…b108backed Yes | 15c | 206.76$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.5 | 344 | 57%196 W · 148 L | +8.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d72…8e62backed Yes | 8c | 200$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1,817 | 8.1%148 W · 1,669 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 15c | 184.47$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.97 | 1,544 | 16.3%252 W · 1,292 L | +21.9wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf19d…9afabacked Yes | 6c | 180$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 41 | 29.3%12 W · 29 L | +2.3wins | +0.06per pick | 24cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7a42…8da8backed Yes | 17c | 138.73$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.81 | 388 | 40.7%158 W · 230 L | -14.9wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd229…fcd6backed Yes | 8c | 129.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 1,242 | 16.7%207 W · 1,035 L | -22.0wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x87c7…d1b6backed Yes | 32c | 126.25$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 287 | 37.6%108 W · 179 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc2d9…274cbacked Yes | 18c | 119.74$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.98 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.13per pick | 38cpaid | -61.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad13…7ed6backed No | 77c | 115.11$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.48 | 919 | 67%616 W · 303 L | -10.6wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd8b9…3296backed Yes | 21c | 114.63$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.75 | 111 | 29.7%33 W · 78 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 21c | 111.36$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.25 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c02…ba96backed Yes | 19c | 98.01$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.48 | 83 | 41%34 W · 49 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 78c | 89.07$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.39 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x66a1…3de8backed Yes | 16c | 83.77$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.47 | 685 | 21.5%147 W · 538 L | +12.8wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a1…3840backed Yes | 20c | 82$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.6 | 1,153 | 27.1%312 W · 841 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb25e…a93bbacked Yes | 14c | 80.03$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.18 | 234 | 36.3%85 W · 149 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked Yes | 18c | 75$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a4…f148backed Yes | 18c | 75$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 1,429 | 34.5%493 W · 936 L | -6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x09ae…a7d6backed Yes | 29c | 73.37$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.54 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -1.7wins | -0.09per pick | 39cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x47af…3999backed No | 69c | 72.97$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.62 | 326 | 52.1%170 W · 156 L | +7.6wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b07…e4c5backed No | 80c | 67.5$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 87 | 48.3%42 W · 45 L | -2.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe82…7056backed Yes | 33c | 60.04$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 54 | 24.1%13 W · 41 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -52.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x089b…c619backed No | 79c | 50.44$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.44 | 75 | 76%57 W · 18 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 74cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d73…43f6backed Yes | 22c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 116 | 19.8%23 W · 93 L | -7.6wins | -0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb8fc…88e1backed Yes | 24c | 49.5$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 1,298 | 33.1%430 W · 868 L | +39.5wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x44c4…e3bfbacked Yes | 25c | 46.79$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 25 | 28%7 W · 18 L | -2.8wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1fbc…4105backed Yes | 26c | 42.65$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.19 | 337 | 26.4%89 W · 248 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc82…6421backed No | 80c | 40$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.2 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.30per pick | 80cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa717…faeabacked No | 75c | 38.5$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.57 | 311 | 70.7%220 W · 91 L | +42.3wins | +0.14per pick | 57cpaid | +30.8%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 74c | 38.46$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbac8…0837backed No | 79c | 37.97$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.97 | 29 | 75.9%22 W · 7 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 74cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7498…387bbacked No | 67c | 36.63$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.09 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +45%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe811…c5f6backed No | 68c | 34.11$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.06 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +48%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36c2…2b8cbacked No | 65c | 30.8$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.78 | 707 | 70.2%496 W · 211 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 71cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 80c | 30$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe520…6e93backed Yes | 39c | 29.23$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.52 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d29…c502backed No | 70c | 28.57$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.57 | 42 | 61.9%26 W · 16 L | -3.6wins | -0.09per pick | 71cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2bbe…e620backed No | 76c | 26.3$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.33 | 51 | 43.1%22 W · 29 L | -5.5wins | -0.11per pick | 54cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xea83…7393backed No | 67c | 24$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.92 | 1,445 | 60.1%868 W · 577 L | +5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xebfc…46e8backed No | 70c | 23.43$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.08 | 64 | 59.4%38 W · 26 L | -3.1wins | -0.05per pick | 64cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1ccf…9ea3backed No | 70c | 20.58$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.17 | 27 | 63%17 W · 10 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 66cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ae3…3401backed No | 77c | 20.15$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.6 | 274 | 63.9%175 W · 99 L | -15.0wins | -0.05per pick | 69cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xed80…0022backed No | 69c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.2 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.20per pick | 30cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeea9…3a27backed No | 67c | 16.52$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.45 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.13per pick | 71cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9e7f…44d4backed No | 77c | 16.21$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.73 | 249 | 66.7%166 W · 83 L | +15.3wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa081…e7a0backed No | 67c | 14.93$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.93 | 389 | 61.7%240 W · 149 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x39fa…0b7dbacked No | 78c | 14.02$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.02 | 407 | 77.1%314 W · 93 L | +28.1wins | +0.07per pick | 70cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 80-81°F on February 26?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be 73°F or below on February 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be 88°F or higher on February 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 74-75°F on February 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 76-77°F on February 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 78-79°F on February 26?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 82-83°F on February 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 84-85°F on February 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on February 26?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.