Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 76-77°F on February 26?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x07ecefc80fb91254c70d455d2f8eea1bd4da4d966dd2b2ecea9e5b84fe933028
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $38,623
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $41,768
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $38,623 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 63 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xef98…7926backed Yes | 0c | 15,085$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.9 | 423 | 15.4%65 W · 358 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b4c…efa9backed Yes | 5c | 1,180$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 122 | 30.3%37 W · 85 L | -11.5wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf516…1ea1backed Yes | 4c | 1,164$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.68 | 51 | 35.3%18 W · 33 L | +2.2wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6582…b20bbacked No | 78c | 964$756 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$207.88 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa37d…b2b4backed Yes | 24c | 949.08$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$224.83 | 321 | 57.3%184 W · 137 L | +17.4wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa717…faeabacked Yes | 24c | 928.08$219 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$218.97 | 311 | 70.7%220 W · 91 L | +42.3wins | +0.14per pick | 57cpaid | +30.8%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 27c | 570.93$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.74 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf19d…9afabacked Yes | 16c | 268.15$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.22 | 41 | 29.3%12 W · 29 L | +2.3wins | +0.06per pick | 24cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 17c | 230.53$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.1 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8929…733ebacked Yes | 15c | 223.41$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.89 | 564 | 24.5%138 W · 426 L | -18.3wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a4…f148backed Yes | 16c | 219.82$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.56 | 1,429 | 34.5%493 W · 936 L | -6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0574…e49fbacked Yes | 21c | 205.79$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.02 | 67 | 29.9%20 W · 47 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d72…8e62backed Yes | 9c | 200$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 1,817 | 8.1%148 W · 1,669 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 74c | 200$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.6 | 583 | 49.4%288 W · 295 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 79c | 195.26$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.27 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1726…d18fbacked No | 74c | 168.74$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.87 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.26per pick | 75cpaid | +34.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9126…f4efbacked Yes | 9c | 166.67$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2084…d4bcbacked Yes | 16c | 143.79$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.82 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 17cpaid | -71.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e86…27afbacked Yes | 20c | 127.43$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.09 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab37…467bbacked Yes | 17c | 125.11$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.84 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.13per pick | 25cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf4cc…a95dbacked No | 79c | 124.11$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.11 | 70 | 81.4%57 W · 13 L | +10.1wins | +0.14per pick | 67cpaid | +26.8%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x6422…a30ebacked Yes | 18c | 121.15$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.61 | 27 | 18.5%5 W · 22 L | -2.6wins | -0.10per pick | 28cpaid | -52.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 69c | 116.65$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.59 | 860 | 50.9%438 W · 422 L | +29.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x324b…3fe4backed Yes | 34c | 104.1$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad13…7ed6backed No | 78c | 102.61$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.25 | 919 | 67%616 W · 303 L | -10.6wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e7f…44d4backed Yes | 10c | 101.2$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.12 | 249 | 66.7%166 W · 83 L | +15.3wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked Yes | 12c | 98.25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.79 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 75c | 98.08$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.52 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2cf4…c2efbacked Yes | 21c | 97.35$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.44 | 16 | 0%0 W · 16 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xecaa…34d2backed No | 79c | 94.59$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.59 | 66 | 74.2%49 W · 17 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 70cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 14c | 85.82$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.29 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x459c…0b30backed Yes | 18c | 84.67$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4914…722ebacked Yes | 36c | 82.43$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 54 | 29.6%16 W · 38 L | -4.4wins | -0.08per pick | 38cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a1…3840backed Yes | 27c | 82$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.99 | 1,153 | 27.1%312 W · 841 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x089b…c619backed No | 74c | 81.08$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.08 | 75 | 76%57 W · 18 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 74cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32a8…4043backed Yes | 13c | 80$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.26 | 34 | 23.5%8 W · 26 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x66a1…3de8backed Yes | 19c | 77.67$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.58 | 685 | 21.5%147 W · 538 L | +12.8wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 21c | 74.95$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.42 | 1,544 | 16.3%252 W · 1,292 L | +21.9wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x797b…c1dbbacked Yes | 16c | 69.98$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 36 | 27.8%10 W · 26 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e61…eaeebacked No | 74c | 67.57$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.57 | 33 | 54.5%18 W · 15 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 60cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2779…62dfbacked Yes | 20c | 65.63$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.13 | 251 | 19.9%50 W · 201 L | -6.6wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -29%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 17c | 64.57$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.22 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5368…2d62backed Yes | 18c | 59.11$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.64 | 1,804 | 27.4%494 W · 1,310 L | +27.6wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8454…3587backed No | 79c | 58.26$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.41 | 273 | 76.6%209 W · 64 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 76cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x672f…13ccbacked Yes | 28c | 53.76$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 330 | 58.8%194 W · 136 L | +10.8wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf57d…f322backed Yes | 29c | 51.93$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 255 | 19.2%49 W · 206 L | +5.8wins | +0.02per pick | 17cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea89…26abbacked Yes | 38c | 51.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.72 | 23 | 69.6%16 W · 7 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 66cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a19…1e2ebacked No | 66c | 43.14$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.67 | 417 | 67.9%283 W · 134 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 66cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e40…224ebacked No | 71c | 42.16$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.16 | 123 | 57.7%71 W · 52 L | -10.9wins | -0.09per pick | 67cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 74c | 39.9$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.37 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e70…50ebbacked No | 79c | 39.17$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.35 | 315 | 67%211 W · 104 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 27c | 38$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.26 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2520…b197backed Yes | 28c | 35.89$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.05 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -2.4wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8817…ba5cbacked No | 79c | 33.27$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.11per pick | 62cpaid | +30%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x517e…4fb2backed No | 80c | 29.24$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.96 | 90 | 76.7%69 W · 21 L | +4.7wins | +0.05per pick | 71cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ecc…bd0bbacked No | 80c | 28.17$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.72 | 7 | 100%7 W · 0 L | +1.9wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +40.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa96a…1377backed No | 77c | 25.84$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.94 | 541 | 43.6%236 W · 305 L | -12.9wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb256…0506backed No | 73c | 24.28$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.57 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | -1.8wins | -0.11per pick | 74cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x30c8…446cbacked No | 72c | 20.48$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.82 | 52 | 25%13 W · 39 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…ca1bbacked No | 80c | 18.83$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.83 | 1,274 | 34%433 W · 841 L | +46.9wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 77c | 16.19$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.65 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3865…fcbebacked No | 69c | 15.26$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.68 | 1,002 | 60.9%610 W · 392 L | -26.2wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9770…d57dbacked No | 76c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.55 | 486 | 72%350 W · 136 L | +9.4wins | +0.02per pick | 70cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 76-77°F on February 26?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be 73°F or below on February 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be 88°F or higher on February 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 74-75°F on February 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 78-79°F on February 26?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 80-81°F on February 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 82-83°F on February 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 84-85°F on February 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on February 26?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.