NFL · resolved market
Steelers vs. Texans
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1e0e3376d6e50157035c946bbc714815af44b9f017a454f91c2df93e7221bfe8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Texansof Steelers, Texans
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $23,421
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,333
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,421 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6126…6411backed Texans | 63c | 7,216$4,531 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,685.53 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +57.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4cc3…7552backed Texans | 57c | 5,002$2,851 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,151 | 251 | 37.5%94 W · 157 L | -18.6wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0a12…01cebacked Steelers | 37c | 5,000$1,850 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,850 | 43 | 51.2%22 W · 21 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1dbd…af92backed Steelers | 42c | 4,805$2,010 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,009.53 | 186 | 45.7%85 W · 101 L | -5.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7fea…8f74backed Steelers | 5c | 2,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 43 | 30.2%13 W · 30 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9716…378abacked Steelers | 42c | 2,000$840 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$840 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | +1.9wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2855…afffbacked Steelers | 38c | 997$374 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$374.4 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa1d7…e17ebacked Steelers | 42c | 900$378 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$378 | 92 | 40.2%37 W · 55 L | +3.6wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8e82…64abbacked Texans | 58c | 750$435 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$315 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -1.6wins | -0.11per pick | 54cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4e91…b801backed Steelers | 42c | 600.05$251 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$251 | 50 | 34%17 W · 33 L | -2.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcede…f2f6backed Steelers | 41c | 594.47$242 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$241.57 | 90 | 22.2%20 W · 70 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8371…06febacked Texans | 56c | 499.99$280 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$220 | 43 | 18.6%8 W · 35 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +68.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9733…f034backed Steelers | 43c | 499.98$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$214.99 | 171 | 44.4%76 W · 95 L | -4.8wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec96…b987backed Steelers | 4c | 450$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.1 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -49.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8c67…bb39backed Texans | 63c | 270$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.9 | 202 | 46%93 W · 109 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x182b…f022backed Texans | 57c | 267$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.81 | 102 | 46.1%47 W · 55 L | +8.8wins | +0.09per pick | 37cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe7ce…c3abbacked Steelers | 40c | 250$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -2.7wins | -0.13per pick | 56cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x160f…524bbacked Steelers | 44c | 249.24$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.52 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7e…4562backed Steelers | 43c | 147$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.21 | 99 | 51.5%51 W · 48 L | +6.4wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +28.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd42f…047dbacked Steelers | 41c | 132.51$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.71 | 324 | 38%123 W · 201 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x216e…6501backed Steelers | 45c | 100$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b5f…7a25backed Steelers | 44c | 70$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.74 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +51.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09a3…8874backed Texans | 57c | 66.78$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.57 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf627…e466backed Steelers | 45c | 64.44$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0931…8381backed Steelers | 45c | 54.64$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.59 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1856…1964backed Texans | 56c | 52.27$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 38 | 60.5%23 W · 15 L | +4.0wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +36%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x46d8…3648backed Texans | 58c | 52.05$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.86 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +80.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd1d…b57fbacked Steelers | 44c | 50.52$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.23 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b55…02f8backed Texans | 75c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 73 | 46.6%34 W · 39 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4ff…950cbacked Steelers | 44c | 45.45$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.20per pick | 47cpaid | +40.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xecbe…42ffbacked Texans | 57c | 40$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.2 | 333 | 28.5%95 W · 238 L | +16.7wins | +0.05per pick | 24cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c5…c9b5backed Texans | 58c | 34.48$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.48 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -1.4wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.