College Football · resolved market
Illinois vs. Purdue Boilermakers
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1e166f211ad1fc8a53a686278a70d06616fa6d8c2d7e32df5206ac0aa10563b5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Illinoisof Illinois, Purdue Boilermakers
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- College Footballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $195,844
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $241,641
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $195,844 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in College Football is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in College Football | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3672…edbdbacked Illinois | 74c | 111,194$81,987 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29,207.03 | 29 | 48.3%14 W · 15 L | -3.6wins | -0.12per pick | 61cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Purdue Boilermakers | 27c | 40,148$10,850 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,849.63 | 862 | 43.7%377 W · 485 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd38b…5029backed Purdue Boilermakers | 27c | 30,842$8,227 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,227.29 | 327 | 45.6%149 W · 178 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf2e…ddecbacked Purdue Boilermakers | 26c | 24,592$6,391 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,390.92 | 405 | 49.4%200 W · 205 L | +10.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x04b9…cdaabacked Purdue Boilermakers | 27c | 14,815$4,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,000 | 157 | 45.2%71 W · 86 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…e319backed Illinois | 74c | 10,000$7,390 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,610 | 399 | 54.1%216 W · 183 L | +16.7wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4231…f63ebacked Purdue Boilermakers | 26c | 5,122$1,328 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,327.93 | 134 | 50.7%68 W · 66 L | +5.5wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +11%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Purdue Boilermakers | 25c | 3,772$933 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$933.09 | 859 | 47.7%410 W · 449 L | +14.9wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed Purdue Boilermakers | 20c | 3,333$681 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$680.63 | 648 | 41.2%267 W · 381 L | +12.4wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd589…27c2backed Purdue Boilermakers | 25c | 2,000$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 53 | 34%18 W · 35 L | -6.1wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe429…fb94backed Illinois | 74c | 2,000$1,480 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$520 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc684…2228backed Illinois | 67c | 1,657$1,110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$546.81 | 267 | 50.9%136 W · 131 L | +21.7wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Purdue Boilermakers | 26c | 1,357$348 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$347.52 | 628 | 43.6%274 W · 354 L | +7.4wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Purdue Boilermakers | 26c | 1,268$329 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$328.66 | 402 | 44.8%180 W · 222 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Illinois | 74c | 978.67$726 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$252.75 | 503 | 58.1%292 W · 211 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6239…c24fbacked Purdue Boilermakers | 24c | 973.19$233 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$232.8 | 494 | 43.7%216 W · 278 L | -9.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcfca…68fcbacked Purdue Boilermakers | 25c | 889.83$226 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225.69 | 471 | 31.4%148 W · 323 L | +15.6wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1fbc…3099backed Illinois | 76c | 842.11$640 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$202.11 | 168 | 39.9%67 W · 101 L | -5.9wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb45d…a406backed Illinois | 58c | 812.55$472 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$341 | 79 | 29.1%23 W · 56 L | -8.1wins | -0.10per pick | 39cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Purdue Boilermakers | 43c | 738.88$316 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$316.04 | 553 | 50.3%278 W · 275 L | +9.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -11%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe53f…62d7backed Illinois | 69c | 537.32$368 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$169.01 | 138 | 45.7%63 W · 75 L | -3.5wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x613b…823abacked Purdue Boilermakers | 28c | 508$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.55 | 94 | 46.8%44 W · 50 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea64…f2a2backed Illinois | 57c | 444.3$253 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$191.05 | 81 | 49.4%40 W · 41 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Illinois | 76c | 331$251 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.99 | 571 | 44.7%255 W · 316 L | +11.3wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ed0…b051backed Purdue Boilermakers | 8c | 276.92$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 36 | 36.1%13 W · 23 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ceb…b516backed Purdue Boilermakers | 26c | 200$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51fd…4272backed Purdue Boilermakers | 27c | 150$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.5 | 473 | 31.5%149 W · 324 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ee…a8aebacked Purdue Boilermakers | 27c | 148.15$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.11per pick | 45cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x177e…a572backed Illinois | 74c | 135.14$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.14 | 70 | 60%42 W · 28 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe408…232bbacked Illinois | 77c | 125$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.75 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a03…47c1backed Purdue Boilermakers | 9c | 122.22$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 41 | 43.9%18 W · 23 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc26d…63f2backed Purdue Boilermakers | 22c | 68.18$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 20 | 15%3 W · 17 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 20cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a29…c0b6backed Illinois | 75c | 66.67$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.67 | 67 | 64.2%43 W · 24 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 67cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf135…eb06backed Purdue Boilermakers | 26c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -31%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda4f…e43bbacked Illinois | 76c | 39.99$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 52 | 69.2%36 W · 16 L | +2.7wins | +0.05per pick | 64cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Illinois | 74c | 38.46$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 492 | 53.5%263 W · 229 L | +7.3wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ae5…d466backed Illinois | 77c | 36.36$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.36 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | -2.4wins | -0.10per pick | 67cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed Illinois | 73c | 31.15$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.56 | 305 | 48.9%149 W · 156 L | -6.1wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1526…a77dbacked Illinois | 76c | 26.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.32 | 43 | 41.9%18 W · 25 L | -5.3wins | -0.12per pick | 54cpaid | -24%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7869…61d8backed Illinois | 76c | 26.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.32 | 72 | 66.7%48 W · 24 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe913…4b84backed Illinois | 66c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -2.9wins | -0.24per pick | 57cpaid | -44.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4bb0…e845backed Illinois | 78c | 19.23$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.23 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.11per pick | 60cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in College Football and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Illinois vs. Purdue Boilermakersthis page
- Spread: Illinois (-8.5)Illinois won
- Spread: Illinois (-9.5)Illinois won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.