Ligue 1 · resolved market
Spread: Stade Rennais FC 1901 (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1e376415b9b52518498f9e028ac3f5399576eeec4c36a16f2cead34651c7fbcf
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Toulouse FCof Stade Rennais FC 1901, Toulouse FC
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ligue 1every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,641
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $2,637
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,641 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 12 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ligue 1 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ligue 1 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Toulouse FC | 58c | 1,629$942 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$687.73 | 1,916 | 45.5%872 W · 1,044 L | +13.7wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x258f…4493backed Stade Rennais FC 1901 | 44c | 760$334 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$334.4 | 31 | 29%9 W · 22 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c86…15c0backed Stade Rennais FC 1901 | 48c | 520.83$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 94 | 47.9%45 W · 49 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x397e…3d84backed Stade Rennais FC 1901 | 33c | 318$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.94 | 266 | 60.5%161 W · 105 L | +25.2wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Toulouse FC | 68c | 297.45$203 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.06 | 593 | 48.4%287 W · 306 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Stade Rennais FC 1901 | 25c | 200$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 265 | 50.6%134 W · 131 L | +8.6wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x650e…9147backed Stade Rennais FC 1901 | 47c | 176.33$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc1b5…c8f8backed Toulouse FC | 77c | 162.34$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.34 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Stade Rennais FC 1901 | 23c | 99.62$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.01 | 873 | 44.3%387 W · 486 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x74be…d9dbbacked Stade Rennais FC 1901 | 30c | 83.33$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x02f4…4effbacked Toulouse FC | 58c | 25.86$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.86 | 21 | 66.7%14 W · 7 L | +1.7wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa50…27d6backed Toulouse FC | 60c | 23.28$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.31 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ligue 1 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Stade Rennais FC 1901 (-1.5)this page
- Spread: Stade Rennais FC 1901 (-2.5)Toulouse FC won
- Spread: Toulouse FC (-2.5)Stade Rennais FC 1901 won
- Stade Rennais FC 1901 vs. Toulouse FC: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Stade Rennais FC 1901 vs. Toulouse FC: O/U 1.5Under won
- Stade Rennais FC 1901 vs. Toulouse FC: O/U 2.5Under won
- Stade Rennais FC 1901 vs. Toulouse FC: O/U 3.5Under won
- Stade Rennais FC 1901 vs. Toulouse FC: O/U 4.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.