NBA · resolved market
NBA Finals G6: Will Siakam score 23+ points against the Thunder?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1e399df689b07b4a6ad5e3897141573916ab3fd9573f71adebdfd5836f3866cc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,351
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $2,352
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,351 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2a35…3073backed No | 52c | 1,000$520 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$480 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +92.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf72…aea6backed Yes | 48c | 485$233 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$232.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec98…afcdbacked No | 51c | 430.85$221 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$209.91 | 87 | 43.7%38 W · 49 L | -3.1wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf8e0…238abacked Yes | 48c | 260$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ce1…f37cbacked Yes | 48c | 255$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x067f…e041backed Yes | 45c | 246.65$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.07 | 1,269 | 44.5%565 W · 704 L | +32.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3e04…564dbacked No | 55c | 234.44$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.5 | 168 | 44%74 W · 94 L | -11.8wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -10%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x84b8…8590backed Yes | 45c | 222.22$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +23%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed No | 55c | 220$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99 | 1,197 | 47.5%569 W · 628 L | -32.0wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb47e…c602backed No | 51c | 199.99$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98 | 617 | 40.7%251 W · 366 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe471…c87cbacked Yes | 50c | 175$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.5 | 173 | 26.6%46 W · 127 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6042…6330backed Yes | 49c | 124.49$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +3.2wins | +0.17per pick | 36cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Yes | 48c | 105$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.4 | 786 | 52.4%412 W · 374 L | +14.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb98b…7e18backed Yes | 48c | 100$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 412 | 27.4%113 W · 299 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +94.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd621…bc07backed No | 51c | 89.35$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.78 | 95 | 55.8%53 W · 42 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc6c9…bb9ebacked No | 45c | 63.64$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 61 | 52.5%32 W · 29 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6455…eff4backed Yes | 55c | 45.45$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6c82…6150backed No | 53c | 44.17$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.76 | 635 | 55.6%353 W · 282 L | +9.5wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…4f2abacked Yes | 48c | 41.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 47 | 57.4%27 W · 20 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x218e…e49dbacked Yes | 49c | 40.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 482 | 55%265 W · 217 L | -9.6wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef54…c997backed Yes | 49c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.6 | 33 | 51.5%17 W · 16 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4919…0c56backed Yes | 47c | 31.91$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 97 | 42.3%41 W · 56 L | -3.3wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8725…eb10backed Yes | 48c | 25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1,109 | 41.8%464 W · 645 L | -20.3wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x11ca…c3c9backed Yes | 46c | 24.48$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.26 | 34 | 61.8%21 W · 13 L | +5.9wins | +0.17per pick | 44cpaid | +37.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x9d11…31fbbacked No | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 39 | 61.5%24 W · 15 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f87…4919backed Yes | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -1.2wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.