Bundesliga · resolved market
Will VfB Stuttgart win on 2025-08-30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1e5f0504970de4dbd1a6eb26c73879eaca50ab7666a19294bf6f070f5863b334
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $23,442
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $26,202
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,442 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4e94…6243backed Yes | 66c | 9,976$6,611 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,364.64 | 36 | 61.1%22 W · 14 L | +7.5wins | +0.21per pick | 40cpaid | +45.1%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x9e5c…d8e6backed No | 44c | 7,851$3,455 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,455.13 | 237 | 45.6%108 W · 129 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fd9…544abacked No | 55c | 3,500$1,917 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,917.41 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xed61…9aa3backed Yes | 32c | 1,250$402 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$848.5 | 150 | 64%96 W · 54 L | +25.0wins | +0.17per pick | 47cpaid | +53.3%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb4…8285backed Yes | 36c | 750$266 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$483.5 | 550 | 58.7%323 W · 227 L | +23.5wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc2f8…56b6backed No | 65c | 605.76$392 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$392.26 | 40 | 42.5%17 W · 23 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e49…63f2backed No | 38c | 599.64$228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$227.88 | 150 | 24%36 W · 114 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 62c | 550$341 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$209.3 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x06b2…9f35backed Yes | 47c | 502$234 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$268.22 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca43…b369backed Yes | 38c | 500$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$310 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.8wins | +0.25per pick | 60cpaid | +41.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb405…8771backed Yes | 61c | 327.87$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.87 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3045…8f78backed Yes | 62c | 321.73$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.73 | 175 | 49.1%86 W · 89 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Yes | 60c | 319.85$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.49 | 193 | 47.2%91 W · 102 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xce2b…08fabacked No | 53c | 284.85$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 380 | 55.8%212 W · 168 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4487…08c6backed Yes | 62c | 264.21$164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.16 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +70%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed No | 39c | 256.41$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 47 | 51.1%24 W · 23 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc41b…4fdfbacked Yes | 54c | 253.72$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.72 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed No | 40c | 250$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 45 | 57.8%26 W · 19 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a05…5c62backed Yes | 61c | 244.43$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.33 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +113.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc9d1…2b9ebacked No | 45c | 243.72$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.66 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda0f…f0e7backed Yes | 64c | 200$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | +5.4wins | +0.19per pick | 33cpaid | +257.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xd8fe…ba40backed Yes | 62c | 200$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | -2.5wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdf2e…ddecbacked No | 38c | 172.58$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.58 | 90 | 53.3%48 W · 42 L | -3.6wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd244…550bbacked Yes | 62c | 161.29$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.29 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd12…c4d4backed Yes | 63c | 158.73$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.73 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -42.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7e2…c7fdbacked No | 21c | 130.52$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.78 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -44%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked No | 38c | 121$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.98 | 339 | 45.7%155 W · 184 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51fd…4272backed No | 39c | 100$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 35 | 20%7 W · 28 L | -3.6wins | -0.10per pick | 30cpaid | -50.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc684…2228backed No | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 30 | 33.3%10 W · 20 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc71e…f450backed No | 39c | 100$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | -4.1wins | -0.21per pick | 43cpaid | -68.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xefe7…0cdfbacked Yes | 47c | 85.11$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.11 | 33 | 51.5%17 W · 16 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 29c | 74.09$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.64 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdf5c…e309backed Yes | 61c | 49.59$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.34 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.14per pick | 51cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbed0…3c7dbacked Yes | 61c | 32.6$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.6 | 204 | 36.3%74 W · 130 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -13%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x750d…566bbacked No | 38c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 52 | 50%26 W · 26 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97cc…bbbfbacked No | 44c | 25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 21 | 66.7%14 W · 7 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed No | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 243 | 22.2%54 W · 189 L | -13.3wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x865f…e88ebacked Yes | 61c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.66 | 343 | 42%144 W · 199 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc463…0918backed Yes | 62c | 24.19$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.19 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -25%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f1a…7c47backed Yes | 58c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 64 | 59.4%38 W · 26 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1781…a0ecbacked Yes | 70c | 18$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.45 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +1.9wins | +0.21per pick | 57cpaid | +52.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will VfB Stuttgart win on 2025-08-30?this page
- Will Borussia Mönchengladbach win on 2025-08-30?No won
- Will VfB Stuttgart vs. Borussia Mönchengladbach end in a draw?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.