Bundesliga · resolved market
Will Holstein Kiel win on 2026-02-28?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1e84051b41a58bcf4a7cc495e8d63dc17d0a319f9a56ae5d04f49a1984498735
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $34,644
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $40,572
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $34,644 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3505…f7a3backed No | 72c | 7,000$5,040 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,959.89 | 28 | 85.7%24 W · 4 L | +4.1wins | +0.14per pick | 71cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x13a1…d9bcbacked Yes | 31c | 4,059$1,270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,270.2 | 160 | 60.6%97 W · 63 L | +9.1wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 28c | 4,022$1,142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,141.76 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…4f20backed No | 72c | 3,000$2,160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$840 | 126 | 51.6%65 W · 61 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x08ce…f301backed Yes | 21c | 1,250$263 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$262.5 | 45 | 26.7%12 W · 33 L | -3.2wins | -0.07per pick | 34cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed No | 70c | 968.22$677 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$291.18 | 1,013 | 44.5%451 W · 562 L | -8.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3045…8f78backed Yes | 28c | 933.79$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260.27 | 175 | 49.1%86 W · 89 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Yes | 32c | 822$263 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$263.2 | 491 | 43.2%212 W · 279 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed No | 71c | 801.5$568 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$233.52 | 624 | 52.6%328 W · 296 L | -9.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x49ed…a2fbbacked Yes | 28c | 678$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189.84 | 48 | 37.5%18 W · 30 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Yes | 28c | 644.05$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180.25 | 1,681 | 45.2%759 W · 922 L | +6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed Yes | 28c | 600$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168 | 565 | 47.8%270 W · 295 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x02d4…d26cbacked Yes | 30c | 500$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 131 | 29.8%39 W · 92 L | +5.6wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa383…a2f0backed Yes | 6c | 416$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.96 | 91 | 45.1%41 W · 50 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -25%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Yes | 25c | 307.83$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.21 | 1,355 | 50.9%690 W · 665 L | +12.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe206…38cebacked Yes | 32c | 291.22$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.19 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -2.6wins | -0.33per pick | 45cpaid | -72.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf3f9…125fbacked Yes | 7c | 289.43$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbc1b…3b5bbacked Yes | 30c | 282.81$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.84 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | +3.1wins | +0.12per pick | 40cpaid | +50.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9f0f…a571backed Yes | 28c | 270.83$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -1.6wins | -0.10per pick | 39cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa6be…b977backed Yes | 28c | 267.86$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 89 | 50.6%45 W · 44 L | +5.3wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked Yes | 28c | 213$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.64 | 569 | 51.8%295 W · 274 L | +10.0wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x682f…3265backed Yes | 28c | 178.57$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 175 | 47.4%83 W · 92 L | -9.0wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5487…a014backed No | 72c | 170$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.6 | 300 | 54%162 W · 138 L | +10.2wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Yes | 28c | 116$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.19 | 1,083 | 50.8%550 W · 533 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Yes | 28c | 100.65$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.18 | 762 | 34.8%265 W · 497 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked No | 72c | 91.43$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.8 | 386 | 46.9%181 W · 205 L | -7.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x14b0…8d0ebacked Yes | 28c | 89.29$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 82 | 46.3%38 W · 44 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…b143backed Yes | 29c | 84.25$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.28 | 306 | 47.1%144 W · 162 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe343…5c31backed Yes | 28c | 71.43$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 52 | 15.4%8 W · 44 L | -4.9wins | -0.09per pick | 25cpaid | -48.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x37c4…359ebacked Yes | 38c | 64.42$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.48 | 42 | 73.8%31 W · 11 L | +12.1wins | +0.29per pick | 45cpaid | +73%equal weight | 70+0.18 edge/pick |
| 0x5b93…9915backed Yes | 23c | 57.55$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa03…45e9backed Yes | 29c | 55.5$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.87 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | +1.6wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa509…ae46backed No | 79c | 52.97$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.2 | 398 | 57.5%229 W · 169 L | +20.0wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked No | 77c | 50$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.45 | 782 | 48.8%382 W · 400 L | -28.1wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x617f…cde5backed Yes | 32c | 40$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.13per pick | 53cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x02ee…9ac3backed Yes | 31c | 35$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.85 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.19per pick | 39cpaid | +58.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2f31…e2b6backed No | 68c | 26.87$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 80 | 67.5%54 W · 26 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 64cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7a49…d9f5backed No | 70c | 24.07$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.16 | 407 | 44.5%181 W · 226 L | -5.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Holstein Kiel win on 2026-02-28?this page
- Will Holstein Kiel vs. SV 07 Elversberg end in a draw?Yes won
- Will SV 07 Elversberg win on 2026-02-28?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.