Bundesliga · resolved market
Will SV 07 Elversberg win on 2026-02-28?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc9cc59dcbb98f2b53572654e9f89dfe10890cb67f7a096ce8a8f1df0b5c46c4f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $27,400
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $27,467
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $27,400 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 71 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked No | 54c | 4,000$2,160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,839.95 | 332 | 44.6%148 W · 184 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8cb3…9818backed Yes | 48c | 2,611$1,244 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,244 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7705…a442backed Yes | 46c | 2,398$1,115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,114.64 | 158 | 29.1%46 W · 112 L | -5.7wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked No | 54c | 2,030$1,087 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$943.89 | 1,681 | 45.2%759 W · 922 L | +6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x258f…4493backed Yes | 30c | 1,479$447 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$447.04 | 74 | 24.3%18 W · 56 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed No | 67c | 1,413$946 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$467.15 | 1,013 | 44.5%451 W · 562 L | -8.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked No | 55c | 1,356$745 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$610.93 | 1,355 | 50.9%690 W · 665 L | +12.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x08ce…f301backed Yes | 21c | 1,248$262 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$262.15 | 45 | 26.7%12 W · 33 L | -3.2wins | -0.07per pick | 34cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 72c | 1,047$757 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$289.58 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a8d…31eabacked Yes | 47c | 678.71$319 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$318.99 | 345 | 47.5%164 W · 181 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 63c | 593.8$376 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$217.37 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc550…8e46backed No | 55c | 499.99$275 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$225 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -1.5wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc686…5a55backed Yes | 21c | 476.19$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 241 | 32%77 W · 164 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x13a1…d9bcbacked Yes | 40c | 471$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188.4 | 160 | 60.6%97 W · 63 L | +9.1wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x397e…3d84backed No | 72c | 401.32$288 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.77 | 446 | 55.4%247 W · 199 L | +22.4wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb2ed…2a85backed Yes | 42c | 400$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa383…a2f0backed Yes | 28c | 356$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.68 | 91 | 45.1%41 W · 50 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -25%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3944…6470backed Yes | 24c | 332.13$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.71 | 60 | 41.7%25 W · 35 L | +2.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbed0…3c7dbacked Yes | 30c | 305.6$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93 | 204 | 36.3%74 W · 130 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -13%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb30a…7fc3backed Yes | 41c | 299.99$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.7wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked No | 64c | 290$186 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.4 | 491 | 43.2%212 W · 279 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed No | 53c | 267.85$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.05 | 624 | 52.6%328 W · 296 L | -9.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe206…38cebacked Yes | 47c | 251.87$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.38 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -2.6wins | -0.33per pick | 45cpaid | -72.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8918…f4e4backed Yes | 40c | 249.1$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 23 | 17.4%4 W · 19 L | -4.0wins | -0.18per pick | 35cpaid | -51.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3b5f…7b99backed No | 52c | 220$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.2 | 102 | 46.1%47 W · 55 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x85a1…a640backed No | 55c | 218.18$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.18 | 89 | 59.6%53 W · 36 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x54a2…5dfebacked Yes | 47c | 212.77$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x505b…f71dbacked Yes | 49c | 204.73$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4588…d206backed Yes | 47c | 200$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | -2.9wins | -0.13per pick | 54cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1f3f…959bbacked Yes | 32c | 154.47$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.43 | 64 | 39.1%25 W · 39 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked No | 53c | 151$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.31 | 569 | 51.8%295 W · 274 L | +10.0wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbc1b…3b5bbacked No | 69c | 144.93$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.93 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | +3.1wins | +0.12per pick | 40cpaid | +50.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6508…1077backed Yes | 36c | 140$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.1 | 73 | 41.1%30 W · 43 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4512…5d41backed Yes | 43c | 122.22$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 64 | 43.8%28 W · 36 L | +7.1wins | +0.11per pick | 33cpaid | +44.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked No | 54c | 121.22$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.87 | 782 | 48.8%382 W · 400 L | -28.1wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x64ff…8f70backed Yes | 44c | 113.64$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 61 | 49.2%30 W · 31 L | +3.3wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa0f6…4892backed Yes | 45c | 111.11$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 66 | 45.5%30 W · 36 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xac98…7281backed Yes | 47c | 106.38$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 89 | 39.3%35 W · 54 L | +4.3wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f43…65fdbacked Yes | 13c | 100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 37 | 21.6%8 W · 29 L | -2.8wins | -0.08per pick | 29cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked No | 53c | 98.52$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.3 | 386 | 46.9%181 W · 205 L | -7.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f66…1f8cbacked Yes | 48c | 83.81$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.23 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +1.9wins | +0.15per pick | 47cpaid | +24%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb4a5…80d4backed Yes | 47c | 72.7$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.17 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -2.2wins | -0.20per pick | 56cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x452f…b277backed Yes | 47c | 67.02$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.5 | 59 | 45.8%27 W · 32 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa509…ae46backed No | 65c | 63.55$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.01 | 398 | 57.5%229 W · 169 L | +20.0wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe7e0…a433backed Yes | 44c | 59.68$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.26 | 42 | 38.1%16 W · 26 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda60…595cbacked Yes | 45c | 58.4$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.28 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ae…74c0backed Yes | 43c | 58.14$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 98 | 56.1%55 W · 43 L | -5.6wins | -0.06per pick | 62cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfa03…45e9backed Yes | 47c | 52.71$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.56 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | +1.6wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0157…d8dcbacked Yes | 47c | 51.28$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.1 | 48 | 60.4%29 W · 19 L | +5.2wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +17%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed No | 52c | 51$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.49 | 817 | 32.8%268 W · 549 L | -11.2wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d5f…7e6fbacked No | 53c | 50.94$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.94 | 93 | 45.2%42 W · 51 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6be…b977backed Yes | 39c | 48.64$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.97 | 89 | 50.6%45 W · 44 L | +5.3wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x44b8…a2d7backed Yes | 43c | 46.51$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 205 | 40%82 W · 123 L | -8.0wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x74be…d9dbbacked No | 66c | 45.13$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.13 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c9b…e74abacked Yes | 48c | 43.75$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 95 | 42.1%40 W · 55 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd205…e7fbbacked Yes | 47c | 43$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.21 | 43 | 53.5%23 W · 20 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b67…e889backed Yes | 27c | 42.8$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.76 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2062…6be2backed Yes | 47c | 42.55$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | -4.2wins | -0.18per pick | 40cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x92b5…2defbacked Yes | 41c | 41.82$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 78 | 34.6%27 W · 51 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed No | 73c | 41$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.07 | 395 | 58.7%232 W · 163 L | +27.4wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x67e6…86edbacked Yes | 46c | 37.43$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.22 | 121 | 57.9%70 W · 51 L | +8.9wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5f33…0d47backed Yes | 33c | 34.3$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.32 | 19 | 78.9%15 W · 4 L | +6.3wins | +0.33per pick | 46cpaid | +74.2%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xe196…0ab5backed Yes | 46c | 30.15$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.87 | 79 | 35.4%28 W · 51 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +42.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa209…d90ebacked No | 63c | 29.98$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.99 | 31 | 45.2%14 W · 17 L | -4.1wins | -0.13per pick | 58cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2b85…bf37backed No | 71c | 26$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.48 | 109 | 43.1%47 W · 62 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7253…9190backed No | 63c | 25$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.25 | 41 | 53.7%22 W · 19 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6390…873ebacked No | 62c | 21.13$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.08 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +57.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed No | 64c | 21.11$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.6 | 160 | 46.9%75 W · 85 L | +4.1wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1727…9e2bbacked No | 54c | 20.07$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.23 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 51c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 62 | 51.6%32 W · 30 L | -4.1wins | -0.07per pick | 58cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x995a…423bbacked Yes | 72c | 14.49$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.43 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 74cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will SV 07 Elversberg win on 2026-02-28?this page
- Will Holstein Kiel vs. SV 07 Elversberg end in a draw?Yes won
- Will Holstein Kiel win on 2026-02-28?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.