Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 23°C on May 5?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1ea6c6098903777dcbedf191cd0779dd003ebf56c0c63c4c5eb2cc22f141cf42
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,107
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,117
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,107 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 54 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2d59…f513backed Yes | 1c | 4,143$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.81 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -54.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 23c | 309.64$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.44 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf56c…ad84backed Yes | 4c | 299.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 507 | 3.4%17 W · 490 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce07…5c3cbacked No | 75c | 273.32$205 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.11 | 310 | 62.6%194 W · 116 L | +38.4wins | +0.12per pick | 50cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 75c | 268.55$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.46 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x09e7…1fffbacked Yes | 40c | 163.44$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.96 | 94 | 39.4%37 W · 57 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | +48.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2967…4ae7backed Yes | 23c | 159.98$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.35 | 257 | 25.7%66 W · 191 L | +7.0wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +21.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd78c…a66ebacked Yes | 22c | 125$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.88 | 728 | 37.8%275 W · 453 L | -12.0wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 75c | 123.34$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.81 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 10c | 115.33$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.13 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6d58…17a9backed Yes | 33c | 109.43$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.01 | 165 | 30.9%51 W · 114 L | +10.0wins | +0.06per pick | 25cpaid | +31.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb3d7…e878backed No | 79c | 108.88$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.58 | 237 | 43%102 W · 135 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…5c20backed Yes | 33c | 105.91$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.71 | 1,787 | 25.7%460 W · 1,327 L | +132.5wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed Yes | 28c | 99.49$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.02 | 886 | 28.9%256 W · 630 L | -22.6wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x49c4…db5bbacked Yes | 33c | 98.49$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.73 | 1,275 | 36.5%465 W · 810 L | -15.9wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb5f4…3fdbbacked Yes | 26c | 95$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.6 | 273 | 35.9%98 W · 175 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc1a7…f77fbacked Yes | 39c | 86.27$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.75 | 180 | 38.9%70 W · 110 L | +13.2wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x354d…eb8fbacked Yes | 26c | 81.46$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.13 | 701 | 33.5%235 W · 466 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e06…0e80backed Yes | 25c | 80$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea6b…5ac2backed Yes | 28c | 70.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 534 | 37.3%199 W · 335 L | -29.9wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 75c | 63.8$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.03 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 25c | 61.27$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.53 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x440c…8dccbacked Yes | 29c | 61$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.4 | 96 | 35.4%34 W · 62 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -15%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0461…fcbcbacked No | 70c | 60$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 724 | 66.2%479 W · 245 L | +33.6wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbb0d…7839backed Yes | 22c | 60$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.09 | 40 | 32.5%13 W · 27 L | -2.6wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2869…527dbacked Yes | 21c | 50.56$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.37 | 937 | 34.9%327 W · 610 L | -203.5wins | -0.22per pick | 57cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 71c | 50.38$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.56 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcf7c…b00dbacked No | 65c | 49.99$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.5 | 786 | 63.6%500 W · 286 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2fef…816bbacked Yes | 25c | 48.84$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 44 | 52.3%23 W · 21 L | -3.2wins | -0.07per pick | 60cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x07d6…64fbbacked No | 78c | 48.16$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.72 | 210 | 68.6%144 W · 66 L | +12.1wins | +0.06per pick | 63cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc120…a7e3backed No | 58c | 47.22$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.73 | 1,299 | 54.1%703 W · 596 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a52…baafbacked Yes | 30c | 42.75$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.67 | 38 | 36.8%14 W · 24 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xedd6…a9a6backed Yes | 29c | 39.7$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.52 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.13per pick | 47cpaid | -47.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb7f…0abbbacked No | 74c | 37.8$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 189 | 48.1%91 W · 98 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe196…b2b8backed No | 75c | 34.99$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.85 | 154 | 54.5%84 W · 70 L | +5.5wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe1e4…b4dabacked No | 75c | 33.14$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.16 | 45 | 71.1%32 W · 13 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 75c | 32.19$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.05 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 63c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.1 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75b0…e7b7backed No | 79c | 30$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.25 | 1,585 | 78.5%1,244 W · 341 L | +39.7wins | +0.03per pick | 76cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa708…9321backed No | 63c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.95 | 1,299 | 57.5%747 W · 552 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 59c | 28$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.48 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3edb…aa1ebacked No | 73c | 27.81$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.45 | 169 | 68%115 W · 54 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeffb…f5e4backed Yes | 41c | 27.25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.17 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.4wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | +38.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3a86…b0d1backed Yes | 38c | 26.72$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa1bd…940ebacked No | 76c | 26.3$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.38 | 170 | 71.2%121 W · 49 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd9b…492abacked No | 74c | 22.16$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.76 | 173 | 65.3%113 W · 60 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f60…026abacked No | 71c | 21.72$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.3 | 999 | 63.5%634 W · 365 L | -3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe1de…aadfbacked No | 79c | 21.63$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.59 | 63 | 76.2%48 W · 15 L | +7.8wins | +0.12per pick | 64cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2f01…4c3abacked No | 76c | 21.32$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.17 | 161 | 59%95 W · 66 L | -6.4wins | -0.04per pick | 63cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3972…a677backed No | 77c | 20.69$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.76 | 817 | 56.4%461 W · 356 L | -23.0wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3507…71d7backed No | 74c | 20.2$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 333 | 73%243 W · 90 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 73cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 71c | 19.83$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.71 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed No | 70c | 17.56$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.18 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9c1…be67backed No | 77c | 17.15$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.97 | 34 | 88.2%30 W · 4 L | +7.2wins | +0.21per pick | 67cpaid | +29.6%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 23°C on May 5?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 18°C or below on May 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 21°C on May 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 22°C on May 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 24°C on May 5?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 25°C on May 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 26°C on May 5?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.