Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 25°C on May 5?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x99e87d24c7b7d114961bf42c80ae0375accff960913de52c80f02f04b53be732
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,915
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,058
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,915 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 49 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1717…1f7cbacked Yes | 7c | 712.21$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.85 | 65 | 36.9%24 W · 41 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac24…576ebacked Yes | 12c | 682.85$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.15 | 233 | 34.3%80 W · 153 L | -6.6wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe1ac…586cbacked Yes | 11c | 618.12$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.71 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ca1…17e5backed Yes | 11c | 554.94$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.35 | 153 | 28.1%43 W · 110 L | +10.0wins | +0.07per pick | 22cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x98e9…8dbebacked Yes | 22c | 482.67$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.76 | 134 | 30.6%41 W · 93 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf967…1adfbacked No | 79c | 245.63$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.4 | 312 | 62.5%195 W · 117 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 30c | 213.73$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.6 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 13c | 199.1$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.15 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 18c | 190$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.26 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6d58…17a9backed Yes | 31c | 182.58$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.6 | 165 | 30.9%51 W · 114 L | +10.0wins | +0.06per pick | 25cpaid | +31.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…5c20backed Yes | 31c | 176.5$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.54 | 1,787 | 25.7%460 W · 1,327 L | +132.5wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 69c | 154.7$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.17 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 15c | 136.72$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x4179…cceebacked No | 75c | 133.53$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.53 | 429 | 76.5%328 W · 101 L | +4.5wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb3d7…e878backed Yes | 21c | 130.39$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.9 | 237 | 43%102 W · 135 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd78c…a66ebacked Yes | 29c | 125$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.25 | 728 | 37.8%275 W · 453 L | -12.0wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff9b…6a02backed Yes | 9c | 122.34$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 158 | 34.2%54 W · 104 L | +8.8wins | +0.06per pick | 29cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 76c | 118.59$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.1 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 28c | 106.62$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.66 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e06…0e80backed Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb5f4…3fdbbacked Yes | 20c | 99.5$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 273 | 35.9%98 W · 175 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed34…2309backed Yes | 24c | 92.59$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.82 | 83 | 36.1%30 W · 53 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed Yes | 17c | 89.72$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.63 | 886 | 28.9%256 W · 630 L | -22.6wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 77c | 76.44$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.44 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc09…467fbacked Yes | 16c | 75.52$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.82 | 69 | 49.3%34 W · 35 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes | 15c | 70$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 1,861 | 23.8%443 W · 1,418 L | +47.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x51f6…9f18backed No | 74c | 67.56$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.57 | 146 | 59.6%87 W · 59 L | +4.6wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc1a7…f77fbacked Yes | 34c | 67.08$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.95 | 180 | 38.9%70 W · 110 L | +13.2wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5278…5306backed No | 76c | 66.14$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.14 | 149 | 41.6%62 W · 87 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x49c4…db5bbacked Yes | 31c | 64.52$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1,275 | 36.5%465 W · 810 L | -15.9wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b98…925ebacked Yes | 25c | 60.96$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.24 | 138 | 42.8%59 W · 79 L | +11.9wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +164.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b4…73cdbacked No | 80c | 60.7$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.17 | 631 | 43.1%272 W · 359 L | -14.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39c0…ae83backed Yes | 22c | 51.95$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.43 | 122 | 23%28 W · 94 L | -4.2wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 76c | 51$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.24 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd210…92dfbacked Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.1 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | -1.6wins | -0.09per pick | 21cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc120…a7e3backed No | 79c | 50$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.65 | 1,299 | 54.1%703 W · 596 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf7c…b00dbacked No | 65c | 50$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.5 | 786 | 63.6%500 W · 286 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0619…0379backed No | 69c | 43.22$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.4 | 548 | 57.5%315 W · 233 L | +13.1wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 78c | 40.53$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.91 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a71…a991backed No | 80c | 37.58$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.58 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.16per pick | 59cpaid | +116.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2c1…cd78backed No | 77c | 30.87$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.17 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.14per pick | 54cpaid | -42.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 79c | 26.3$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.43 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3972…a677backed No | 69c | 25.1$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.78 | 817 | 56.4%461 W · 356 L | -23.0wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe14a…c6c8backed No | 68c | 20.93$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.7 | 64 | 59.4%38 W · 26 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2cf…464bbacked No | 68c | 16.67$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.28 | 1,115 | 63.4%707 W · 408 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca5e…4a1cbacked No | 70c | 14.56$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.37 | 22 | 68.2%15 W · 7 L | +1.8wins | +0.08per pick | 60cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfbc3…37b9backed No | 79c | 13.8$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.9 | 74 | 64.9%48 W · 26 L | +5.8wins | +0.08per pick | 57cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2698…2941backed No | 80c | 12.83$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.57 | 1,011 | 61.2%619 W · 392 L | +14.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 25°C on May 5?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 18°C or below on May 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 21°C on May 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 22°C on May 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 23°C on May 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 24°C on May 5?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 26°C on May 5?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.