Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 22°C or higher on March 13?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1ee2469a1f77a5ea1f28e17c93329b889a0bb75493f019273036a1d631417499
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $22,612
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,612 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 68 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x93be…5f5fbacked No | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c89…98c3backed Yes | 52c | 1,200$624 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$576 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.44per pick | 22cpaid | +297.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1c78…42e6backed No | 7c | 814.85$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.99 | 597 | 42%251 W · 346 L | +96.8wins | +0.16per pick | 26cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 67+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x518d…516abacked No | 48c | 800$384 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$384 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad13…7ed6backed No | 48c | 488.94$235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$235.07 | 919 | 67%616 W · 303 L | -10.6wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a15…dfb4backed No | 11c | 394.64$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -55%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7273…ee98backed No | 48c | 390$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.2 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 44c | 344.66$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192.67 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f5b…e747backed Yes | 60c | 280.9$169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.31 | 34 | 52.9%18 W · 16 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 27c | 200.93$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.02 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa96a…1377backed No | 62c | 158$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.66 | 541 | 43.6%236 W · 305 L | -12.9wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked Yes | 54c | 154.72$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.86 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3681…4e48backed Yes | 52c | 153.02$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.58 | 1,375 | 56%770 W · 605 L | +25.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 47c | 135.45$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.69 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x91d9…141dbacked No | 16c | 135.35$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.85 | 1,256 | 38.2%480 W · 776 L | +53.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed Yes | 64c | 130.56$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.93 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x919d…f1b1backed Yes | 63c | 130.32$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.22 | 100 | 51%51 W · 49 L | +5.0wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +29.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 26c | 129.97$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.07 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x64b0…ab64backed Yes | 74c | 129.37$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.37 | 294 | 59.5%175 W · 119 L | +20.7wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5264…9a63backed Yes | 44c | 127.11$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.11 | 740 | 23.9%177 W · 563 L | +23.6wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1600…9236backed Yes | 48c | 117.07$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.01 | 354 | 32.5%115 W · 239 L | +9.2wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc550…dbe8backed Yes | 76c | 105.19$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.19 | 43 | 53.5%23 W · 20 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +11%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b40…96e3backed No | 42c | 99.93$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.51 | 522 | 45%235 W · 287 L | -13.2wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x83fe…23d9backed No | 47c | 99$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.01 | 327 | 60.6%198 W · 129 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb537…14ccbacked No | 53c | 94.34$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 414 | 60.1%249 W · 165 L | -21.5wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 24c | 90.76$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.83 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 40c | 87.89$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.39 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0044…cb2cbacked No | 15c | 84.01$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 368 | 19.6%72 W · 296 L | +21.9wins | +0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9bda…439fbacked No | 36c | 82.84$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 594 | 40.6%241 W · 353 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce45…aa7bbacked No | 41c | 73.23$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 39 | 20.5%8 W · 31 L | -4.9wins | -0.12per pick | 33cpaid | -67.8%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3024…8ecebacked Yes | 67c | 71.86$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.65 | 172 | 37.2%64 W · 108 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 23c | 69.06$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.87 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef0f…1dc9backed Yes | 47c | 66.42$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.5 | 106 | 50%53 W · 53 L | +11.0wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +27%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 31c | 64.6$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.22 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xf967…1adfbacked No | 24c | 60.73$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.42 | 312 | 62.5%195 W · 117 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe9b7…8030backed Yes | 74c | 57.35$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.91 | 125 | 64.8%81 W · 44 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xebb1…e7afbacked Yes | 73c | 55.85$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.25 | 575 | 45%259 W · 316 L | +26.6wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +13%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3865…fcbebacked No | 46c | 54.94$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1,002 | 60.9%610 W · 392 L | -26.2wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5068…1ffabacked Yes | 74c | 53$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.73 | 54 | 57.4%31 W · 23 L | -3.2wins | -0.06per pick | 63cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4df8…4005backed No | 57c | 52.17$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.74 | 108 | 41.7%45 W · 63 L | -3.8wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a6b…223dbacked Yes | 76c | 50.78$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.19 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 75c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5504…665dbacked No | 54c | 48.99$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.46 | 100 | 55%55 W · 45 L | -4.3wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 24c | 46.54$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.33 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xdf36…ffb0backed Yes | 53c | 41.88$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.68 | 159 | 39%62 W · 97 L | +14.4wins | +0.09per pick | 30cpaid | +28%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7de6…2471backed No | 48c | 41.63$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbe34…8ee7backed No | 48c | 40$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.12 | 163 | 55.2%90 W · 73 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x70ab…c998backed Yes | 75c | 39.36$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.72 | 61 | 37.7%23 W · 38 L | +5.9wins | +0.10per pick | 28cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked No | 33c | 39.14$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.92 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xade1…9040backed Yes | 53c | 37.89$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.89 | 338 | 39.9%135 W · 203 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbe63…2de4backed Yes | 75c | 37.07$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.27 | 115 | 46.1%53 W · 62 L | -5.4wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe8ab…823bbacked No | 46c | 35.18$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.1 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84d7…298fbacked Yes | 50c | 32.65$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.38 | 584 | 22.8%133 W · 451 L | -26.5wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -52.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3735…5a5bbacked No | 64c | 31.25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 151 | 36.4%55 W · 96 L | -11.3wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -36%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0cab…7489backed Yes | 76c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 103 | 71.8%74 W · 29 L | +4.3wins | +0.04per pick | 68cpaid | +3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1418…6fefbacked Yes | 65c | 29$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.25 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -4.4wins | -0.21per pick | 54cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x9b1f…9ff2backed Yes | 78c | 28.97$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.35 | 323 | 52.9%171 W · 152 L | +19.6wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd3c0…8032backed No | 64c | 26.72$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.1 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | -4.0wins | -0.17per pick | 65cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc437…0f42backed Yes | 75c | 26.59$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.59 | 29 | 27.6%8 W · 21 L | -2.8wins | -0.10per pick | 37cpaid | -41.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x47af…3999backed No | 56c | 25.93$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.39 | 326 | 52.1%170 W · 156 L | +7.6wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf618…6a90backed Yes | 79c | 25.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.32 | 58 | 58.6%34 W · 24 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked Yes | 53c | 24$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.28 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0494…631fbacked No | 49c | 21$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.29 | 30 | 60%18 W · 12 L | +3.2wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4109…7c10backed Yes | 63c | 20.63$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.63 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.15per pick | 32cpaid | -73.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x09c5…9e8abacked Yes | 76c | 20.53$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.03 | 213 | 33.8%72 W · 141 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x33b6…597bbacked No | 49c | 20.41$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 26 | 7.7%2 W · 24 L | -3.4wins | -0.13per pick | 21cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 74c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.3 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d56…6530backed Yes | 78c | 14.9$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.28 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 71cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 22°C or higher on March 13?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 19°C on March 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 20°C on March 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 21°C on March 13?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.