Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 80-81°F on May 11?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1efd315190282e5fbb43d65bbab5cf3920737c74aeb25e306d63266feb1c82c1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $25,009
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $25,664
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $25,009 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 48 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4b1c…bd99backed No | 0c | 12,503$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.6 | 37 | 43.2%16 W · 21 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 17c | 652.02$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$542.12 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 31c | 489.05$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$337.41 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 11c | 383.42$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$342.02 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 8c | 344.88$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$318.43 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a4…f148backed Yes | 23c | 263.03$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$201.29 | 1,429 | 34.5%493 W · 936 L | -6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 8c | 257.11$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$236.11 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2510…b91bbacked Yes | 24c | 209.01$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158.64 | 85 | 45.9%39 W · 46 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 26c | 154.34$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.3 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x942d…278ebacked Yes | 23c | 154.25$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.27 | 434 | 30.9%134 W · 300 L | +10.2wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +78.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 32c | 148.27$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.27 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46d3…2c20backed Yes | 12c | 128.13$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.13 | 166 | 27.7%46 W · 120 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 75c | 128$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 34c | 127.99$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.1 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked No | 54c | 122.83$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.19 | 718 | 23.4%168 W · 550 L | -26.6wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 46c | 119.06$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.72 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 72c | 112.47$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.78 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed Yes | 14c | 105.22$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.21 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 70c | 94.77$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.12 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b18…2639backed Yes | 28c | 89.26$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.3 | 438 | 42%184 W · 254 L | -14.7wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 53c | 79.63$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.91 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 61c | 78.56$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.36 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe196…b2b8backed Yes | 19c | 78.02$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.06 | 154 | 54.5%84 W · 70 L | +5.5wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b72…a958backed Yes | 15c | 74.4$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.38 | 686 | 45.8%314 W · 372 L | -10.7wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf3d2…6efcbacked Yes | 17c | 74.01$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.3 | 219 | 30.1%66 W · 153 L | +15.3wins | +0.07per pick | 23cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked Yes | 33c | 69.33$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.28 | 1,420 | 58.7%833 W · 587 L | +69.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6892…fcd6backed No | 73c | 68.92$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 30 | 60%18 W · 12 L | -1.7wins | -0.06per pick | 66cpaid | -19%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfba1…2769backed Yes | 39c | 64.33$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.33 | 106 | 40.6%43 W · 63 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9008…09f0backed Yes | 30c | 63.27$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.42 | 119 | 39.5%47 W · 72 L | +8.7wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaa84…e985backed Yes | 24c | 62$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.12 | 407 | 39.3%160 W · 247 L | -11.2wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75f3…fe29backed No | 76c | 61$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.33 | 521 | 55.3%288 W · 233 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 77c | 56$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.94 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84b9…7f7fbacked Yes | 38c | 51.78$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.07 | 357 | 42.9%153 W · 204 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd43e…3604backed No | 75c | 50$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.38 | 515 | 53.6%276 W · 239 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4de1…18a2backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 435 | 15.2%66 W · 369 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x66a1…3de8backed Yes | 29c | 40.9$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.18 | 685 | 21.5%147 W · 538 L | +12.8wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 41c | 40$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.4 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdba1…8239backed Yes | 67c | 37$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.21 | 128 | 53.9%69 W · 59 L | +10.0wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 28c | 36.33$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.01 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 60c | 34$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.43 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc120…a7e3backed No | 76c | 30$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.8 | 1,299 | 54.1%703 W · 596 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x31a6…5aaabacked No | 61c | 27.69$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.99 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.13per pick | 53cpaid | -38.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcca3…7450backed No | 70c | 27$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.9 | 426 | 43.2%184 W · 242 L | +9.7wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6409…9411backed No | 80c | 26.28$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 825 | 62.2%513 W · 312 L | -23.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbff7…554fbacked No | 63c | 24.15$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.18 | 1,026 | 60.8%624 W · 402 L | +11.0wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 79c | 21.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.37 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e04…3475backed No | 80c | 15.81$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.64 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | -4.7wins | -0.20per pick | 64cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 78c | 15$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.72 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 80-81°F on May 11?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be 86°F or higher on May 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 76-77°F on May 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 78-79°F on May 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 82-83°F on May 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 84-85°F on May 11?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.