Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 78-79°F on May 11?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1e1c6f2e6586bd225023411016848bec717156ff8923b1a08bfdbcd9d6092a49
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,408
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,166
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,408 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 50 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc969…0377backed Yes | 1c | 1,417$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.95 | 85 | 12.9%11 W · 74 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -45.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9686…1701backed Yes | 10c | 433.64$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.94 | 351 | 33.6%118 W · 233 L | +10.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 28c | 336.16$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.2 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5757…9e19backed No | 73c | 287.34$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.67 | 451 | 62.1%280 W · 171 L | +19.8wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x213e…5e0fbacked Yes | 55c | 285.29$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.3 | 657 | 49.8%327 W · 330 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf430…f3c2backed No | 71c | 277.31$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.36 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 59cpaid | +30.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 52c | 236.83$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.25 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked No | 47c | 143.42$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.8 | 718 | 23.4%168 W · 550 L | -26.6wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 78c | 138.96$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.17 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 34c | 127.99$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.9 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1502…922ebacked No | 36c | 122.88$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79 | 42 | 69%29 W · 13 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x40eb…ade9backed Yes | 80c | 122.24$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.38 | 495 | 47.1%233 W · 262 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 61c | 120.4$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.72 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82f3…9f82backed Yes | 31c | 115.04$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.22 | 1,455 | 24.7%359 W · 1,096 L | -33.3wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfba1…2769backed No | 63c | 94.75$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.75 | 106 | 40.6%43 W · 63 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d3e…2c6bbacked Yes | 46c | 87.72$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.34 | 188 | 14.4%27 W · 161 L | -14.7wins | -0.08per pick | 22cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x82ca…3135backed Yes | 71c | 78.72$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.86 | 1,026 | 64%657 W · 369 L | +49.8wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 14c | 75.07$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.31 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x15ca…310fbacked No | 67c | 74.84$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.84 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x66a1…3de8backed Yes | 31c | 63.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.12 | 685 | 21.5%147 W · 538 L | +12.8wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75f3…fe29backed No | 53c | 61$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.58 | 521 | 55.3%288 W · 233 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf3d2…6efcbacked Yes | 25c | 59.07$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.61 | 219 | 30.1%66 W · 153 L | +15.3wins | +0.07per pick | 23cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2698…2941backed No | 69c | 53.79$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.85 | 1,011 | 61.2%619 W · 392 L | +14.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3808…8b90backed Yes | 73c | 52$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.19 | 85 | 63.5%54 W · 31 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36f1…847fbacked No | 76c | 51.89$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.45 | 51 | 39.2%20 W · 31 L | -5.9wins | -0.12per pick | 51cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x69fd…b2f0backed No | 53c | 50$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.5 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed Yes | 33c | 45.59$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f51…8b09backed Yes | 55c | 44.28$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.17 | 146 | 38.4%56 W · 90 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +37.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84b9…7f7fbacked Yes | 48c | 43.62$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.98 | 357 | 42.9%153 W · 204 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9791…a14abacked Yes | 74c | 41.43$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.72 | 194 | 61.9%120 W · 74 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b42…9fc4backed Yes | 28c | 40.33$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.11 | 259 | 46.3%120 W · 139 L | +11.0wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 41c | 40$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.6 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f12…9424backed Yes | 40c | 36.19$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 175 | 53.7%94 W · 81 L | +9.6wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xef5e…b385backed No | 35c | 35.29$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.05 | 31 | 61.3%19 W · 12 L | +2.2wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 40c | 35$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.9 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed No | 60c | 34.26$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.59 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc445…1724backed No | 51c | 30.68$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.09 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.6wins | -0.20per pick | 45cpaid | -57.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xda91…d760backed Yes | 47c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.1 | 1,010 | 40.3%407 W · 603 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd2d…0ef3backed Yes | 79c | 30$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.76 | 114 | 46.5%53 W · 61 L | -6.3wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc120…a7e3backed No | 37c | 30$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.92 | 1,299 | 54.1%703 W · 596 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Yes | 52c | 29.55$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.31 | 926 | 2.5%23 W · 903 L | -379.9wins | -0.41per pick | 44cpaid | -90.2%equal weight | 6-0.40 edge/pick |
| 0x684b…b99fbacked Yes | 42c | 26.12$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.86 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c05…a460backed No | 67c | 25$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.25 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8817…cda8backed Yes | 68c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.62 | 248 | 41.1%102 W · 146 L | -13.5wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb1ac…a062backed No | 67c | 18.84$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.24 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.16per pick | 64cpaid | +31.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ad7…347abacked Yes | 56c | 18.31$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.19 | 729 | 52.4%382 W · 347 L | +34.9wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x85c8…80f8backed No | 64c | 18.23$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 391 | 58.1%227 W · 164 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd3ce…618dbacked Yes | 70c | 15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x506c…840cbacked Yes | 77c | 13.34$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.34 | 151 | 52.3%79 W · 72 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 78-79°F on May 11?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be 86°F or higher on May 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 76-77°F on May 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 80-81°F on May 11?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 82-83°F on May 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 84-85°F on May 11?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.