Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 82-83°F on May 11?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x232117d37f34a0930a1021e62262e9b6a0c7a79371d8a2098b8029c934d82a9b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,154
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,637
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,154 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 65 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 6c | 999.94$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 18c | 590.99$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.6 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 23c | 439.2$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.53 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5968…3fc4backed No | 79c | 322.91$255 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.86 | 421 | 60.6%255 W · 166 L | -25.0wins | -0.06per pick | 67cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 24c | 319.22$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.73 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 75c | 314.99$236 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.5 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 31c | 192.92$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.98 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed Yes | 8c | 161.21$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.76 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a4…f148backed Yes | 30c | 149.98$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.99 | 1,429 | 34.5%493 W · 936 L | -6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…a526backed Yes | 37c | 134.59$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.65 | 154 | 66.9%103 W · 51 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9a26…c335backed Yes | 17c | 131.74$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.37 | 862 | 26.8%231 W · 631 L | +28.6wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x82f3…9f82backed Yes | 40c | 123.53$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.4 | 1,455 | 24.7%359 W · 1,096 L | -33.3wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae47…638dbacked No | 76c | 112.64$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.85 | 525 | 71.2%374 W · 151 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x94b1…27cbbacked No | 75c | 105.88$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.09 | 975 | 70.6%688 W · 287 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 77c | 96.46$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.65 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 70c | 94$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.07 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x66a1…3de8backed Yes | 19c | 90.42$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.17 | 685 | 21.5%147 W · 538 L | +12.8wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x53bc…be7cbacked No | 75c | 82.61$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.98 | 627 | 70.5%442 W · 185 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 71cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 66c | 81.53$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.9 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc24f…81d3backed No | 74c | 80.91$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.01 | 985 | 71%699 W · 286 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 16c | 79.13$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.44 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 69c | 77.67$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.29 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 27c | 71.75$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.05 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 15c | 69$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.65 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x684b…b99fbacked Yes | 24c | 67.8$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x60d8…f2a6backed Yes | 22c | 63.15$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.87 | 378 | 35.4%134 W · 244 L | +10.5wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b98…925ebacked Yes | 35c | 61.7$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.6 | 138 | 42.8%59 W · 79 L | +11.9wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +164.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6de9…a8e5backed No | 75c | 61.1$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.01 | 201 | 61.7%124 W · 77 L | -10.1wins | -0.05per pick | 67cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x942d…278ebacked Yes | 30c | 56.5$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.23 | 434 | 30.9%134 W · 300 L | +10.2wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +78.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f51…8b09backed Yes | 36c | 56.43$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.45 | 146 | 38.4%56 W · 90 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +37.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1885…521bbacked Yes | 31c | 55.18$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x07e0…ac5cbacked No | 67c | 54.9$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.89 | 29 | 65.5%19 W · 10 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebdb…5ac4backed Yes | 43c | 52.51$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 850 | 49.8%423 W · 427 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 21c | 52.04$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46d3…2c20backed Yes | 31c | 47.86$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 166 | 27.7%46 W · 120 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef22…441dbacked Yes | 28c | 45.13$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.66 | 100 | 53%53 W · 47 L | +20.3wins | +0.20per pick | 33cpaid | +86.2%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed Yes | 37c | 43.25$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf021…245ebacked No | 78c | 40.09$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.94 | 116 | 64.7%75 W · 41 L | -8.2wins | -0.07per pick | 72cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 65c | 38.69$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.54 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8842…dfa7backed Yes | 38c | 34.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.3 | 452 | 36.5%165 W · 287 L | +20.0wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 73c | 34.61$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.34 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 58c | 34$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.28 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b95…898abacked No | 80c | 31.37$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.4 | 301 | 68.8%207 W · 94 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 67cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x973e…15c2backed No | 70c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 173 | 64.7%112 W · 61 L | -10.3wins | -0.06per pick | 71cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6557…8474backed No | 67c | 28.55$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.54 | 71 | 56.3%40 W · 31 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbbaa…88a2backed Yes | 38c | 28$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.64 | 67 | 31.3%21 W · 46 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6fd4…5cfcbacked No | 65c | 27.49$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.49 | 572 | 64.5%369 W · 203 L | -10.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6409…9411backed No | 78c | 26.7$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.96 | 825 | 62.2%513 W · 312 L | -23.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…b720backed No | 71c | 26.13$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.59 | 981 | 60.6%594 W · 387 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x87a2…2250backed No | 76c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 170 | 66.5%113 W · 57 L | -7.3wins | -0.04per pick | 71cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6659…b7cabacked No | 62c | 24.8$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.42 | 938 | 37.6%353 W · 585 L | -14.5wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdff0…5865backed No | 73c | 24.71$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.58 | 69 | 81.2%56 W · 13 L | +5.3wins | +0.08per pick | 73cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb423…c178backed No | 64c | 23.44$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.44 | 268 | 61.6%165 W · 103 L | -6.4wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa1bd…940ebacked No | 68c | 23.01$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.47 | 170 | 71.2%121 W · 49 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa259…6597backed No | 67c | 21.96$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.17 | 995 | 71.1%707 W · 288 L | +22.0wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa22f…af41backed No | 68c | 21.78$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.9 | 120 | 57.5%69 W · 51 L | -8.1wins | -0.07per pick | 64cpaid | -11%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c9…d2b8backed No | 64c | 21.54$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.76 | 535 | 47.5%254 W · 281 L | -8.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf4ea…7ef6backed No | 68c | 21.12$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.81 | 116 | 70.7%82 W · 34 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9770…d57dbacked No | 69c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.25 | 486 | 72%350 W · 136 L | +9.4wins | +0.02per pick | 70cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5243…e40ebacked No | 72c | 19.27$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.3 | 38 | 71.1%27 W · 11 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 73cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf075…3f43backed No | 77c | 18.91$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.41 | 108 | 66.7%72 W · 36 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf5dc…dec3backed No | 70c | 18.72$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.71 | 1,360 | 69.3%943 W · 417 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcca3…7450backed No | 67c | 16$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.28 | 426 | 43.2%184 W · 242 L | +9.7wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xecd5…ebdcbacked No | 78c | 15.43$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.43 | 64 | 81.3%52 W · 12 L | +6.2wins | +0.10per pick | 71cpaid | +13%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe32a…a7f9backed No | 67c | 15.21$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.95 | 45 | 64.4%29 W · 16 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 82-83°F on May 11?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be 86°F or higher on May 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 76-77°F on May 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 78-79°F on May 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 80-81°F on May 11?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 84-85°F on May 11?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.