Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 84-85°F on April 23?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1f19b84f9a7685ef0d96c6102bc185901a3b48409eb0a98dcfa3647e442e9506
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,191
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,137
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,191 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 66 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb8fc…88e1backed Yes | 34c | 1,167$396 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$395.96 | 1,298 | 33.1%430 W · 868 L | +39.5wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 26c | 820.86$216 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215.69 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x83a3…4d2bbacked Yes | 40c | 583.29$234 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$234.17 | 81 | 51.9%42 W · 39 L | +6.6wins | +0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4cad…e203backed No | 60c | 250$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 40 | 35%14 W · 26 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30bd…cecabacked Yes | 39c | 242.51$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.7 | 38 | 36.8%14 W · 24 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f8…f4cbbacked Yes | 19c | 228.44$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.83 | 812 | 34.1%277 W · 535 L | +56.9wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb5fc…c493backed No | 63c | 199.99$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74 | 54 | 51.9%28 W · 26 L | +6.2wins | +0.11per pick | 40cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 34c | 199.51$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.08 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 71c | 164.32$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.04 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 34c | 144.92$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.18 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd51e…6465backed No | 67c | 126.96$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.59 | 375 | 33.6%126 W · 249 L | -11.9wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd035…f165backed No | 62c | 120.41$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.24 | 590 | 21.7%128 W · 462 L | -24.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x553a…0c2bbacked No | 67c | 120.05$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.21 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5147…f078backed No | 64c | 107.22$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.04 | 68 | 45.6%31 W · 37 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked No | 63c | 105.5$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.2 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ca6…4b74backed Yes | 36c | 103.41$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.04 | 118 | 33.1%39 W · 79 L | -7.7wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -26%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x951c…d8c7backed Yes | 35c | 98.05$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.32 | 683 | 35.4%242 W · 441 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad8a…9d7bbacked No | 62c | 88.44$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.77 | 75 | 58.7%44 W · 31 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3182…4ff7backed No | 75c | 83.11$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.38 | 141 | 68.1%96 W · 45 L | -3.6wins | -0.03per pick | 71cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x76a2…6651backed Yes | 40c | 80.01$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 146 | 37.7%55 W · 91 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b78…e589backed Yes | 37c | 75.99$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.12 | 379 | 42.5%161 W · 218 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0b4…834ebacked No | 70c | 69.29$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.79 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 70cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 33c | 68.68$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.85 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed No | 65c | 66.9$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.42 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 63c | 61.1$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.71 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked No | 67c | 60.88$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.28 | 1,420 | 58.7%833 W · 587 L | +69.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 60c | 60$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed Yes | 30c | 59.86$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.22 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x710d…02aabacked Yes | 40c | 59.48$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.69 | 340 | 67.4%229 W · 111 L | +24.4wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 34c | 58.42$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16d9…f0b0backed Yes | 33c | 56.13$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.67 | 286 | 48.3%138 W · 148 L | +7.6wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 70c | 53.56$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.07 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a8e…05a4backed Yes | 44c | 53.46$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.43 | 430 | 50.2%216 W · 214 L | +21.7wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 63c | 53$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.61 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd01…d8cdbacked Yes | 30c | 52.76$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.83 | 332 | 43.1%143 W · 189 L | +7.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc423…2ccdbacked Yes | 37c | 51.14$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.73 | 524 | 44.1%231 W · 293 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x72e5…6412backed Yes | 37c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc2f3…c13cbacked Yes | 29c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 67c | 47.94$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.01 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5499…cf6dbacked Yes | 36c | 45.31$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.14 | 250 | 37.6%94 W · 156 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | +36.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf05a…d78fbacked No | 66c | 45.12$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.34 | 126 | 70.6%89 W · 37 L | +4.1wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 36c | 44.95$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.12 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x236b…9b00backed No | 68c | 44.81$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.4 | 202 | 66.8%135 W · 67 L | -8.9wins | -0.04per pick | 71cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x36c2…2b8cbacked No | 69c | 43.5$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.49 | 707 | 70.2%496 W · 211 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 71cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea6b…5ac2backed No | 67c | 43.3$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.29 | 534 | 37.3%199 W · 335 L | -29.9wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8b81…82dbbacked Yes | 35c | 41.51$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.47 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2869…527dbacked Yes | 33c | 39.95$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.08 | 937 | 34.9%327 W · 610 L | -203.5wins | -0.22per pick | 57cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x1076…9416backed No | 67c | 38.68$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.76 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5245…d0a6backed No | 67c | 38.68$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.81 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.11per pick | 64cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x017c…00c3backed Yes | 35c | 38.44$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.45 | 250 | 42.4%106 W · 144 L | +5.0wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c38…d6a6backed Yes | 33c | 37.9$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 64 | 21.9%14 W · 50 L | -5.0wins | -0.08per pick | 30cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe8e6…aa6cbacked No | 67c | 36.08$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.91 | 119 | 77.3%92 W · 27 L | +4.9wins | +0.04per pick | 73cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ebd…e0cabacked Yes | 33c | 33.93$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc5b…619abacked No | 61c | 33.05$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.82 | 274 | 64.6%177 W · 97 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf64f…99d7backed No | 65c | 30.41$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.49 | 39 | 48.7%19 W · 20 L | -4.2wins | -0.11per pick | 60cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdded…13a2backed Yes | 44c | 29.62$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.99 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -2.2wins | -0.12per pick | 54cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 65c | 27.12$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.49 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb3d7…e878backed No | 54c | 20.79$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.56 | 237 | 43%102 W · 135 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa7a…4d23backed No | 64c | 19.99$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 987 | 38.1%376 W · 611 L | +80.8wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd228…ea6fbacked No | 67c | 19.68$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.4 | 229 | 34.1%78 W · 151 L | -8.4wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7a79…c875backed No | 66c | 19.33$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.49 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | +2.9wins | +0.11per pick | 38cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb7…1a88backed No | 62c | 19.23$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 999 | 49.5%495 W · 504 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbfb8…fb8bbacked No | 78c | 18.78$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.09 | 6 | 100%6 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +33%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6557…8474backed No | 64c | 18$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.48 | 71 | 56.3%40 W · 31 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d21…b569backed No | 62c | 17.34$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.59 | 141 | 58.2%82 W · 59 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9410…9160backed No | 67c | 15.47$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.11 | 420 | 49%206 W · 214 L | -15.9wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 84-85°F on April 23?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 78-79°F on April 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 80-81°F on April 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 82-83°F on April 23?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 86-87°F on April 23?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.