Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 82-83°F on April 23?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdd6b5b4a370b0f04f14f5002883176dcdb2085b06ea62fa65e7c71f129c0e961
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,965
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,720
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,965 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 79 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 41c | 580.1$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240.36 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd035…f165backed No | 25c | 367.61$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.89 | 590 | 21.7%128 W · 462 L | -24.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 60c | 234.96$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.33 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28f7…9a6abacked Yes | 74c | 230.57$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.51 | 108 | 43.5%47 W · 61 L | +5.2wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x82f3…9f82backed Yes | 52c | 218.22$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.32 | 1,455 | 24.7%359 W · 1,096 L | -33.3wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked No | 53c | 194.98$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.18 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x213e…5e0fbacked Yes | 73c | 188.43$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.04 | 657 | 49.8%327 W · 330 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a4…f148backed Yes | 51c | 177.46$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.54 | 1,429 | 34.5%493 W · 936 L | -6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x553a…0c2bbacked No | 53c | 172.03$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.17 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 43c | 158.06$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.18 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 32c | 156.25$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 46c | 142.8$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.79 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe07e…0e7ebacked Yes | 45c | 123.44$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.89 | 334 | 50.6%169 W · 165 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5147…f078backed No | 54c | 121.02$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.77 | 68 | 45.6%31 W · 37 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 29c | 120.22$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.44 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 36c | 113.12$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.4 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 55c | 104.9$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.7 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x162e…fe52backed No | 58c | 99.59$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.46 | 40 | 37.5%15 W · 25 L | -6.8wins | -0.17per pick | 54cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x951c…d8c7backed Yes | 45c | 98.35$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.09 | 683 | 35.4%242 W · 441 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x86b1…c094backed Yes | 67c | 95.44$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.86 | 273 | 28.6%78 W · 195 L | -10.4wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbaf1…ffd5backed Yes | 46c | 81.47$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.6 | 114 | 36%41 W · 73 L | +5.0wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd36…a832backed Yes | 39c | 80.98$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.51 | 650 | 43.4%282 W · 368 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5644…ecbbbacked Yes | 58c | 80$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.9 | 237 | 38%90 W · 147 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x40eb…ade9backed Yes | 54c | 64.85$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.08 | 495 | 47.1%233 W · 262 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x710d…02aabacked Yes | 49c | 64.29$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.5 | 340 | 67.4%229 W · 111 L | +24.4wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 34c | 63.99$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.05 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa1f…af40backed Yes | 46c | 51.41$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.76 | 48 | 37.5%18 W · 30 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9c31…68a1backed No | 47c | 50.76$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.67 | 195 | 47.2%92 W · 103 L | -9.0wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfba3…4e15backed No | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 278 | 51.8%144 W · 134 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90a8…7a97backed Yes | 55c | 49.55$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.3 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +1.6wins | +0.09per pick | 32cpaid | +115%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x09c2…8210backed Yes | 60c | 48.02$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.01 | 541 | 54%292 W · 249 L | +13.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b78…e589backed Yes | 63c | 47.7$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.65 | 379 | 42.5%161 W · 218 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 43c | 47.23$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.92 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x989a…befcbacked Yes | 50c | 47.03$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.51 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +1.5wins | +0.09per pick | 39cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5964…35dfbacked No | 22c | 46$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.18 | 1,279 | 33.6%430 W · 849 L | -6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x36c2…2b8cbacked No | 64c | 45.75$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.28 | 707 | 70.2%496 W · 211 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 71cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 46c | 42.8$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.69 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x036d…e888backed Yes | 51c | 42.59$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.73 | 78 | 71.8%56 W · 22 L | +3.1wins | +0.04per pick | 68cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbe99…9ca7backed Yes | 47c | 41.66$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.08 | 669 | 26.2%175 W · 494 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf49…2486backed Yes | 43c | 39.31$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.44 | 155 | 45.2%70 W · 85 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x017c…00c3backed Yes | 44c | 38.95$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.81 | 250 | 42.4%106 W · 144 L | +5.0wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xebd2…0d5dbacked No | 54c | 38.16$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.61 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6c38…d6a6backed Yes | 42c | 37.66$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.03 | 64 | 21.9%14 W · 50 L | -5.0wins | -0.08per pick | 30cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9547…1bf5backed Yes | 38c | 37.52$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.26 | 34 | 41.2%14 W · 20 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f2c…6e24backed No | 53c | 37$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 34 | 23.5%8 W · 26 L | -10.9wins | -0.32per pick | 56cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 29-0.18 edge/pick |
| 0x1b8c…9de1backed Yes | 75c | 36.38$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.12 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b81…82dbbacked Yes | 38c | 34.43$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.35 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f18…5b28backed Yes | 40c | 33.81$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.45 | 265 | 66.4%176 W · 89 L | +13.0wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3c69…4622backed No | 62c | 32.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.45 | 562 | 65.5%368 W · 194 L | +35.2wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc323…4408backed No | 53c | 32.48$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.25 | 335 | 67.5%226 W · 109 L | -6.3wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 45c | 32.09$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.62 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x356b…1c3fbacked Yes | 36c | 32$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.48 | 591 | 25.9%153 W · 438 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4c77…ff72backed Yes | 45c | 31.5$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.33 | 45 | 71.1%32 W · 13 L | +2.3wins | +0.05per pick | 66cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc82c…c866backed Yes | 52c | 30.82$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.87 | 76 | 39.5%30 W · 46 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef2e…10c3backed Yes | 47c | 30.3$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.99 | 402 | 42.5%171 W · 231 L | -12.4wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa7a…4d23backed Yes | 38c | 30$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.6 | 987 | 38.1%376 W · 611 L | +80.8wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1b07…a7c5backed Yes | 35c | 30$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.5 | 30 | 63.3%19 W · 11 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee0c…c6b6backed No | 60c | 30$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 31cpaid | -68.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8941…83d7backed No | 53c | 28.58$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.1 | 163 | 66.3%108 W · 55 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa36b…1d89backed No | 50c | 28.5$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.25 | 555 | 38.4%213 W · 342 L | -14.1wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7453…aee6backed Yes | 55c | 27.8$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.51 | 35 | 51.4%18 W · 17 L | +2.6wins | +0.07per pick | 44cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x771c…809abacked Yes | 46c | 27.58$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.9 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.20per pick | 47cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb3d7…e878backed No | 44c | 25.71$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.34 | 237 | 43%102 W · 135 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 45c | 25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.25 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 41c | 24.98$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.66 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 52c | 23.55$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.29 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c70…edf3backed Yes | 47c | 22.15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.67 | 125 | 39.2%49 W · 76 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf55f…8e92backed No | 56c | 21.07$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 165 | 48.5%80 W · 85 L | -13.3wins | -0.08per pick | 57cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked No | 62c | 20.59$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.76 | 1,699 | 60.6%1,029 W · 670 L | -24.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1098…10a7backed No | 57c | 20.27$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.48 | 417 | 33.8%141 W · 276 L | -17.0wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x47f7…0312backed No | 55c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 146 | 63%92 W · 54 L | -3.4wins | -0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0461…fcbcbacked Yes | 54c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 724 | 66.2%479 W · 245 L | +33.6wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd228…ea6fbacked No | 66c | 19.83$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.09 | 229 | 34.1%78 W · 151 L | -8.4wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb17…0cd7backed Yes | 53c | 19.76$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.33 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | -2.9wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked No | 55c | 19.55$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.75 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4bcb…634fbacked Yes | 64c | 19.28$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.99 | 215 | 47.4%102 W · 113 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1076…9416backed No | 56c | 19.11$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.7 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d21…b569backed No | 64c | 17.42$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.15 | 141 | 58.2%82 W · 59 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 82-83°F on April 23?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 78-79°F on April 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 80-81°F on April 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 84-85°F on April 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 86-87°F on April 23?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.