Australian A League · resolved market
Macarthur FC vs. Perth Glory FC: O/U 1.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1f2fbdc6ac5831fac11ab3849d801750f74e0fa9cdb97a993c038beb759c0427
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Australian A Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,795
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $26,993
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,795 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Australian A League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Australian A League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Under | 30c | 4,951$1,463 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,462.75 | 466 | 44.8%209 W · 257 L | -23.0wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3790…5e8bbacked Over | 75c | 2,000$1,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$500 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 74cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Under | 21c | 812.67$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.14 | 226 | 52.7%119 W · 107 L | +13.1wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2af2…ec6fbacked Over | 62c | 808$501 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$307.04 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +118.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8c0d…b612backed Over | 69c | 579.71$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$179.71 | 69 | 58%40 W · 29 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4157…04f9backed Over | 63c | 570.14$358 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$212.14 | 62 | 43.5%27 W · 35 L | -4.5wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe6a5…e95dbacked Under | 19c | 526.32$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 95 | 50.5%48 W · 47 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 22c | 467.4$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.02 | 988 | 44.4%439 W · 549 L | -11.4wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x832c…c46ebacked Over | 65c | 466$303 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.1 | 30 | 63.3%19 W · 11 L | +4.8wins | +0.16per pick | 47cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Under | 18c | 458.76$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.49 | 198 | 49%97 W · 101 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa128…8d4bbacked Over | 78c | 399.08$311 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.08 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79fd…78cebacked Under | 22c | 357.31$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.24 | 44 | 29.5%13 W · 31 L | -5.9wins | -0.14per pick | 43cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7cb1…984ebacked Over | 70c | 300$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90 | 32 | 68.8%22 W · 10 L | +4.7wins | +0.15per pick | 54cpaid | +26.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbe3c…a835backed Over | 65c | 300$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | -2.7wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd6c5…0d72backed Under | 20c | 227.05$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.41 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -14%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2344…6ba3backed Under | 19c | 226.86$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.1 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 12c | 186.1$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.12 | 334 | 44%147 W · 187 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 33c | 158.61$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.73 | 349 | 37.8%132 W · 217 L | -13.0wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4035…5e54backed Over | 72c | 110$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.8 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x76e7…1872backed Under | 20c | 79.25$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.85 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.23per pick | 52cpaid | -61.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 37c | 47.32$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.51 | 478 | 50.8%243 W · 235 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd8…5cdbbacked Under | 22c | 46$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.12 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -2.0wins | -0.33per pick | 49cpaid | -65.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x44c9…2bd8backed Over | 72c | 32.05$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.85 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.11per pick | 66cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed Over | 78c | 30.76$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.83 | 168 | 65.5%110 W · 58 L | +22.1wins | +0.13per pick | 52cpaid | +28.7%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Australian A League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Macarthur FC vs. Perth Glory FC: O/U 1.5this page
- Macarthur FC vs. Perth Glory FC: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Macarthur FC vs. Perth Glory FC: O/U 2.5Over won
- Macarthur FC vs. Perth Glory FC: O/U 3.5Over won
- Macarthur FC vs. Perth Glory FC: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: Macarthur FC (-1.5)Perth Glory FC won
- Spread: Macarthur FC (-2.5)Perth Glory FC won
- Spread: Perth Glory FC (-1.5)Macarthur FC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.