Australian A League · resolved market
Macarthur FC vs. Perth Glory FC: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6e5c9b5d11b8e4919991fc22677299d870c43e90ff61d9c38caf781a7fd54048
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Australian A Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $42,080
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $49,380
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $42,080 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 72 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Australian A League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Australian A League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Under | 47c | 14,198$6,625 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,624.94 | 466 | 44.8%209 W · 257 L | -23.0wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xea32…8870backed Over | 60c | 10,806$6,482 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,324.34 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Over | 43c | 5,000$2,150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,850 | 120 | 55%66 W · 54 L | +12.6wins | +0.11per pick | 44cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 40c | 3,271$1,309 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,308.53 | 437 | 48.3%211 W · 226 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 43c | 3,000$1,302 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,301.99 | 988 | 44.4%439 W · 549 L | -11.4wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5440…edd4backed Over | 45c | 1,853$835 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,018.1 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.19per pick | 53cpaid | +56.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xba5a…344cbacked Over | 60c | 1,659$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$659.13 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c2e…9e01backed Under | 60c | 1,609$961 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$961 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Under | 32c | 1,314$420 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$420.05 | 226 | 52.7%119 W · 107 L | +13.1wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x20ad…307dbacked Over | 66c | 935.75$622 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$313.68 | 25 | 80%20 W · 5 L | +4.1wins | +0.16per pick | 64cpaid | +27%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 50c | 858.66$425 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$425.06 | 349 | 37.8%132 W · 217 L | -13.0wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9dea…3792backed Under | 58c | 856.93$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 34 | 52.9%18 W · 16 L | -4.5wins | -0.13per pick | 66cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3790…5e8bbacked Over | 66c | 800$528 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$272 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 74cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf42d…b35cbacked Over | 53c | 786.25$417 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$369.54 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | -2.3wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2fa0…aa66backed Over | 74c | 618.75$456 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.74 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 68cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5858…dc6bbacked Over | 53c | 538$285 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$252.86 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x832c…c46ebacked Over | 60c | 500$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200 | 30 | 63.3%19 W · 11 L | +4.8wins | +0.16per pick | 47cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8c0d…b612backed Over | 63c | 492.14$310 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$182.14 | 69 | 58%40 W · 29 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ae2…20a3backed Under | 68c | 440.62$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 28 | 53.6%15 W · 13 L | -1.7wins | -0.06per pick | 60cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4c16…a5e3backed Over | 48c | 416.67$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$216.67 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x90a5…9dccbacked Over | 42c | 337.43$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$194.56 | 46 | 67.4%31 W · 15 L | +13.1wins | +0.28per pick | 39cpaid | +90.8%equal weight | 71+0.18 edge/pick |
| 0x2dad…a040backed Over | 64c | 300$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108 | 23 | 78.3%18 W · 5 L | +2.6wins | +0.11per pick | 67cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa354…b85fbacked Over | 52c | 291.8$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.24 | 63 | 73%46 W · 17 L | +19.0wins | +0.30per pick | 43cpaid | +74.3%equal weight | 74+0.22 edge/pick |
| 0x4781…336dbacked Over | 60c | 266.67$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.67 | 90 | 65.6%59 W · 31 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4215…f03abacked Over | 65c | 264.7$172 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.77 | 41 | 48.8%20 W · 21 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x94d8…8835backed Over | 60c | 249.98$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.99 | 32 | 59.4%19 W · 13 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7cb1…984ebacked Over | 46c | 200$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108 | 32 | 68.8%22 W · 10 L | +4.7wins | +0.15per pick | 54cpaid | +26.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd473…3febbacked Over | 48c | 200$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104 | 118 | 58.5%69 W · 49 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb6b…b0b9backed Under | 52c | 200$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x66b1…340fbacked Under | 45c | 200$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.91 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe3c…a835backed Over | 55c | 190$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.5 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | -2.7wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0eb8…753bbacked Over | 53c | 188.68$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.68 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe015…621fbacked Over | 49c | 185.46$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.02 | 29 | 31%9 W · 20 L | -2.9wins | -0.10per pick | 41cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 42c | 176.66$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.55 | 334 | 44%147 W · 187 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f51…41edbacked Over | 60c | 175$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e41…36f2backed Over | 59c | 169.99$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.7 | 114 | 57.9%66 W · 48 L | +6.3wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1cc9…f0b3backed Over | 60c | 166.67$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.67 | 42 | 45.2%19 W · 23 L | +2.3wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +24.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x51eb…6bfabacked Over | 53c | 161.67$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.67 | 36 | 58.3%21 W · 15 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1346…0448backed Under | 46c | 150$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.3 | 135 | 40.7%55 W · 80 L | -8.0wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd944…07d5backed Under | 41c | 125.41$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.54 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa60b…c728backed Over | 65c | 125$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.25 | 62 | 53.2%33 W · 29 L | +2.9wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd9c0…7fc1backed Over | 65c | 116.97$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.81 | 83 | 61.4%51 W · 32 L | +10.4wins | +0.13per pick | 49cpaid | +27.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x0d44…2f97backed Under | 43c | 115.7$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.75 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf8b…51f7backed Over | 42c | 104.76$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.76 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.19per pick | 48cpaid | +40%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e0a…e4e6backed Over | 65c | 97.21$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.24 | 65 | 63.1%41 W · 24 L | +7.6wins | +0.12per pick | 51cpaid | +23.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9075…cfe8backed Over | 53c | 94.34$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.34 | 50 | 48%24 W · 26 L | -2.1wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0684…d1fabacked Over | 60c | 83.44$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.44 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -12%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Under | 43c | 81.92$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.21 | 198 | 49%97 W · 101 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79fd…78cebacked Under | 34c | 80.18$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.26 | 44 | 29.5%13 W · 31 L | -5.9wins | -0.14per pick | 43cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Under | 25c | 73.17$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.29 | 309 | 54.7%169 W · 140 L | +8.1wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8ae…7f3ebacked Over | 41c | 72.99$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.29 | 48 | 43.8%21 W · 27 L | +3.8wins | +0.08per pick | 36cpaid | +24%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe48c…163abacked Over | 67c | 66.45$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.93 | 75 | 48%36 W · 39 L | -3.6wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd4d1…086ebacked Under | 41c | 60.98$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.24per pick | 53cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x72ee…a848backed Over | 48c | 55$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.65 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd3d…e7ebbacked Over | 60c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 78 | 33.3%26 W · 52 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -11%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 40c | 48$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.38 | 324 | 53.1%172 W · 152 L | +6.8wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c9b…e74abacked Over | 60c | 41.67$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.67 | 80 | 50%40 W · 40 L | +6.1wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb1e2…66e2backed Over | 67c | 40.34$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.31 | 29 | 72.4%21 W · 8 L | +2.1wins | +0.07per pick | 65cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0f65…cdd3backed Over | 62c | 40$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.4 | 15 | 80%12 W · 3 L | +3.2wins | +0.21per pick | 59cpaid | +39.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2344…6ba3backed Under | 40c | 39.65$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.68 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed Over | 38c | 39.1$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.43 | 168 | 65.5%110 W · 58 L | +22.1wins | +0.13per pick | 52cpaid | +28.7%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xcfe6…49f8backed Over | 51c | 37.1$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.27 | 103 | 57.3%59 W · 44 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x848c…bfebbacked Under | 37c | 33.85$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.58 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e8d…3a3dbacked Over | 52c | 32.43$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.43 | 67 | 46.3%31 W · 36 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x57d5…0bbdbacked Over | 57c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | -3.8wins | -0.14per pick | 49cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1cc1…88a0backed Over | 51c | 29.41$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.41 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 60cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac27…18e7backed Over | 60c | 29.25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.7 | 33 | 66.7%22 W · 11 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 49c | 28.09$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.76 | 478 | 50.8%243 W · 235 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ad1…c06dbacked Over | 61c | 26.23$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.23 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69ee…6e35backed Under | 40c | 25.24$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.13 | 61 | 62.3%38 W · 23 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a3a…d5b0backed Over | 60c | 18.33$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.33 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.18per pick | 57cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x03b9…0e4dbacked Over | 65c | 16.63$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.82 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +3.2wins | +0.40per pick | 47cpaid | +155.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Australian A League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Macarthur FC vs. Perth Glory FC: O/U 2.5this page
- Macarthur FC vs. Perth Glory FC: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Macarthur FC vs. Perth Glory FC: O/U 1.5Over won
- Macarthur FC vs. Perth Glory FC: O/U 3.5Over won
- Macarthur FC vs. Perth Glory FC: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: Macarthur FC (-1.5)Perth Glory FC won
- Spread: Macarthur FC (-2.5)Perth Glory FC won
- Spread: Perth Glory FC (-1.5)Macarthur FC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.