Australian A League · resolved market
Macarthur FC vs. Perth Glory FC: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2e21088ffe58ed9eed24c1eab4b6e146209e457a139afdfa847ca3d5d35737e1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Australian A Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,225
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $22,343
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,225 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 52 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Australian A League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Australian A League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Under | 67c | 5,881$3,958 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,957.74 | 466 | 44.8%209 W · 257 L | -23.0wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Over | 30c | 2,000$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,400 | 120 | 55%66 W · 54 L | +12.6wins | +0.11per pick | 44cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xef21…3dc9backed Over | 37c | 1,575$583 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$992.05 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.33per pick | 42cpaid | +62.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ca1…aea0backed Over | 37c | 1,000$370 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$630 | 43 | 41.9%18 W · 25 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x832c…c46ebacked Over | 40c | 994$394 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$600.4 | 30 | 63.3%19 W · 11 L | +4.8wins | +0.16per pick | 47cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7a84…0e54backed Over | 24c | 625$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$475 | 22 | 22.7%5 W · 17 L | -1.9wins | -0.09per pick | 31cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9ae2…20a3backed Under | 56c | 532.43$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 28 | 53.6%15 W · 13 L | -1.7wins | -0.06per pick | 60cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 60c | 479.89$290 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$289.83 | 349 | 37.8%132 W · 217 L | -13.0wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x33af…288abacked Over | 37c | 438.03$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$278.03 | 94 | 46.8%44 W · 50 L | +6.8wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +20.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbb6b…b0b9backed Under | 77c | 427.26$328 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$328.4 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1cc9…f0b3backed Over | 42c | 315.57$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$182.57 | 42 | 45.2%19 W · 23 L | +2.3wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +24.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 56c | 302.25$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.66 | 334 | 44%147 W · 187 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4215…f03abacked Over | 40c | 256.6$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.33 | 41 | 48.8%20 W · 21 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8996…15efbacked Under | 8c | 223.89$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.31 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -3.0wins | -0.20per pick | 40cpaid | -69.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa354…b85fbacked Over | 23c | 219.6$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168.37 | 63 | 73%46 W · 17 L | +19.0wins | +0.30per pick | 43cpaid | +74.3%equal weight | 74+0.22 edge/pick |
| 0x350e…bd56backed Over | 46c | 202$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.91 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.54per pick | 46cpaid | +119.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e65…ff48backed Over | 29c | 199.98$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.99 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +2.0wins | +0.41per pick | 39cpaid | +80.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x90a5…9dccbacked Over | 25c | 149.91$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.6 | 46 | 67.4%31 W · 15 L | +13.1wins | +0.28per pick | 39cpaid | +90.8%equal weight | 71+0.18 edge/pick |
| 0x03b9…0e4dbacked Over | 30c | 148$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.98 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +3.2wins | +0.40per pick | 47cpaid | +155.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x5487…a014backed Under | 63c | 146.99$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.61 | 101 | 60.4%61 W · 40 L | +7.1wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa60b…c728backed Over | 40c | 125$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.5 | 62 | 53.2%33 W · 29 L | +2.9wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x755a…6da6backed Under | 59c | 120.76$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.25 | 64 | 34.4%22 W · 42 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd9c0…7fc1backed Over | 40c | 120$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.6 | 83 | 61.4%51 W · 32 L | +10.4wins | +0.13per pick | 49cpaid | +27.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x66b1…340fbacked Under | 47c | 117$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.99 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 73c | 112.79$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.39 | 988 | 44.4%439 W · 549 L | -11.4wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13a1…d9bcbacked Over | 57c | 110.7$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.6 | 37 | 73%27 W · 10 L | +6.3wins | +0.17per pick | 56cpaid | +30.9%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x79fd…78cebacked Under | 71c | 102.61$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.85 | 44 | 29.5%13 W · 31 L | -5.9wins | -0.14per pick | 43cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xcd3d…e7ebbacked Over | 25c | 100$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75 | 78 | 33.3%26 W · 52 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -11%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e0a…e4e6backed Over | 41c | 99.12$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.62 | 65 | 63.1%41 W · 24 L | +7.6wins | +0.12per pick | 51cpaid | +23.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7d77…9dd7backed Over | 38c | 82.31$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.33 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.8wins | +0.37per pick | 43cpaid | +82.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbec3…22b6backed Over | 37c | 70.27$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.27 | 46 | 45.7%21 W · 25 L | +4.3wins | +0.09per pick | 36cpaid | +34.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa8ae…7f3ebacked Over | 23c | 70$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54 | 48 | 43.8%21 W · 27 L | +3.8wins | +0.08per pick | 36cpaid | +24%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8d84…6df0backed Under | 64c | 61.95$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.65 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -1.6wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf628…ba6fbacked Over | 24c | 57.53$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.72 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | +82.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf42d…b35cbacked Over | 40c | 57.39$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.25 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | -2.3wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Over | 46c | 55.34$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.93 | 478 | 50.8%243 W · 235 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9b1…242fbacked Over | 37c | 54.05$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.05 | 68 | 50%34 W · 34 L | +3.9wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0f65…cdd3backed Over | 41c | 53.08$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.1 | 15 | 80%12 W · 3 L | +3.2wins | +0.21per pick | 59cpaid | +39.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdf1e…5d9bbacked Over | 80c | 53$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.6 | 7 | 100%7 W · 0 L | +3.1wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +129.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xef51…f58dbacked Over | 22c | 50$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.23per pick | 28cpaid | +127.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1f…f5eabacked Over | 39c | 47.77$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.27 | 77 | 39%30 W · 47 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0eb8…753bbacked Over | 47c | 47.19$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.19 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57cb…2208backed Under | 72c | 46.83$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.54 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -2.0wins | -0.22per pick | 45cpaid | -63.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2ddf…1b96backed Over | 45c | 44.44$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.44 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.57per pick | 43cpaid | +130.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xce9d…3c05backed Under | 58c | 43.1$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 80 | 48.8%39 W · 41 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7cb1…984ebacked Over | 43c | 39.98$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.79 | 32 | 68.8%22 W · 10 L | +4.7wins | +0.15per pick | 54cpaid | +26.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x43f6…ee3ebacked Under | 64c | 31.25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.7wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa42a…d91fbacked Over | 43c | 25$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.25 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +2.1wins | +0.15per pick | 50cpaid | +24.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x16a4…2d70backed Under | 60c | 24.97$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x11f2…a7a0backed Over | 43c | 24.57$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -21%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Under | 54c | 20.08$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.78 | 226 | 52.7%119 W · 107 L | +13.1wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x57d5…0bbdbacked Under | 67c | 20.01$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.34 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | -3.8wins | -0.14per pick | 49cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Australian A League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Macarthur FC vs. Perth Glory FC: O/U 3.5this page
- Macarthur FC vs. Perth Glory FC: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Macarthur FC vs. Perth Glory FC: O/U 1.5Over won
- Macarthur FC vs. Perth Glory FC: O/U 2.5Over won
- Macarthur FC vs. Perth Glory FC: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: Macarthur FC (-1.5)Perth Glory FC won
- Spread: Macarthur FC (-2.5)Perth Glory FC won
- Spread: Perth Glory FC (-1.5)Macarthur FC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.