Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 94-95°F on August 13?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1f46d0ab91be6cddac84fd618cca62ed617f1e3131ebcff888deb9c58d4e8a47
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,544
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,688
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,544 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 55 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x441a…e9c7backed No | 62c | 2,318$1,448 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,447.67 | 395 | 43.5%172 W · 223 L | -12.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x56b3…3fa2backed Yes | 37c | 2,282$850 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,431.83 | 895 | 44.7%400 W · 495 L | +30.5wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked No | 64c | 741$471 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$471.41 | 1,196 | 57.9%693 W · 503 L | +47.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd22…2013backed Yes | 36c | 259.66$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167.12 | 314 | 54.1%170 W · 144 L | +31.3wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 54c | 221.27$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.47 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9506…1c4fbacked Yes | 35c | 212$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.9 | 815 | 58.5%477 W · 338 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed Yes | 30c | 200$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 9c | 196.17$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.26 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x1ba7…3d88backed No | 55c | 196$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.45 | 478 | 66.5%318 W · 160 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f1…3a05backed Yes | 37c | 176.45$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.54 | 535 | 25.2%135 W · 400 L | -8.7wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29ae…c79fbacked No | 65c | 132.31$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86 | 59 | 45.8%27 W · 32 L | -10.0wins | -0.17per pick | 63cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x1826…c31ebacked Yes | 32c | 127.39$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.39 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +1.5wins | +0.11per pick | 43cpaid | +36%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 57c | 126.24$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.45 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 32c | 123.61$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.05 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5757…9e19backed No | 68c | 120.63$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.03 | 451 | 62.1%280 W · 171 L | +19.8wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 15c | 113.4$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.9 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5695…60e9backed Yes | 46c | 106.38$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.43 | 192 | 52.1%100 W · 92 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed Yes | 29c | 101$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.71 | 1,274 | 50.9%649 W · 625 L | -35.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9eda…6e19backed Yes | 30c | 100$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70 | 775 | 55.2%428 W · 347 L | -13.9wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a4…f148backed Yes | 47c | 100$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.52 | 1,429 | 34.5%493 W · 936 L | -6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec62…9191backed Yes | 45c | 99.99$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.99 | 1,102 | 40.7%448 W · 654 L | +18.7wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x885f…7bf9backed No | 32c | 93.75$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 546 | 56.4%308 W · 238 L | +15.6wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 37c | 90.51$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.71 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked Yes | 42c | 84.88$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.82 | 771 | 51%393 W · 378 L | +23.7wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4435…786fbacked Yes | 30c | 78.53$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.97 | 971 | 52.2%507 W · 464 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 33c | 75.47$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.73 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd1…557ebacked No | 64c | 73$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.69 | 1,169 | 59.4%694 W · 475 L | +30.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1894…a936backed Yes | 37c | 62.96$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.97 | 667 | 58%387 W · 280 L | +48.0wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 54c | 61.91$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.67 | 1,316 | 56.2%740 W · 576 L | -18.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 54c | 60$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.5 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 55c | 60$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6cd2…8eaabacked Yes | 43c | 50$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.5 | 122 | 24.6%30 W · 92 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed Yes | 44c | 49.5$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.72 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x234c…90dbbacked Yes | 46c | 43.48$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.48 | 581 | 38.9%226 W · 355 L | +10.9wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x14a0…d8e3backed Yes | 44c | 42.06$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.52 | 41 | 53.7%22 W · 19 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 58c | 40.47$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.53 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x65f7…86ddbacked No | 55c | 40$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 257 | 58%149 W · 108 L | +7.5wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b6e…5848backed Yes | 38c | 39.47$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.65 | 241 | 41.1%99 W · 142 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 66c | 39.37$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.96 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa834…1c25backed Yes | 36c | 38.84$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.03 | 1,048 | 34.5%362 W · 686 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 65c | 38$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.7 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 37c | 37.72$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.71 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6120…f1febacked Yes | 46c | 32.61$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.61 | 827 | 42.8%354 W · 473 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa95c…171dbacked Yes | 46c | 30.28$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.39 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a3b…957bbacked Yes | 65c | 28.16$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.86 | 370 | 56.5%209 W · 161 L | +31.7wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +19%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x73e0…e538backed Yes | 45c | 27$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.85 | 72 | 45.8%33 W · 39 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 57c | 26.48$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x142a…a44abacked No | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 179 | 45.3%81 W · 98 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 54c | 22.74$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.28 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…0a64backed No | 56c | 21.38$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.93 | 1,010 | 58.1%587 W · 423 L | -34.0wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb699…4e20backed No | 55c | 20.07$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.14 | 213 | 52.1%111 W · 102 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05f7…22bcbacked No | 53c | 20.02$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.66 | 131 | 67.2%88 W · 43 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3904…539bbacked No | 58c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.52 | 427 | 62.8%268 W · 159 L | +16.3wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0082…c023backed No | 54c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 62c | 17.73$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.02 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 94-95°F on August 13?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 92-93°F on August 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 96-97°F on August 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 98-99°F on August 13?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.