Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 96-97°F on August 13?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2254414cb48a87c3214a9838f547f6bc8e666bd08abdf9ab576247b63983fcda
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,756
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,226
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,756 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 68 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed No | 56c | 1,030$579 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$450.95 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56b3…3fa2backed Yes | 43c | 721.17$313 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$312.89 | 895 | 44.7%400 W · 495 L | +30.5wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked Yes | 47c | 455.56$213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$212.68 | 1,196 | 57.9%693 W · 503 L | +47.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7e9c…f3a8backed Yes | 35c | 447.76$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.9 | 602 | 36.5%220 W · 382 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd22…2013backed No | 49c | 380.73$187 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$193.98 | 314 | 54.1%170 W · 144 L | +31.3wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb0da…3ff6backed No | 56c | 324$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.87 | 176 | 58%102 W · 74 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 57c | 321$183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.03 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 50c | 307.32$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.3 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebdb…5ac4backed No | 52c | 300$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.5 | 850 | 49.8%423 W · 427 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6261…2e11backed Yes | 61c | 266.5$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.61 | 50 | 48%24 W · 26 L | -7.6wins | -0.15per pick | 63cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f1…3a05backed No | 51c | 260.14$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.85 | 535 | 25.2%135 W · 400 L | -8.7wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 64c | 214$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.04 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 49c | 212.99$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.17 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a4…f148backed Yes | 59c | 180$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.19 | 1,429 | 34.5%493 W · 936 L | -6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa834…1c25backed No | 58c | 174.98$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.95 | 1,048 | 34.5%362 W · 686 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2572…80dbbacked Yes | 58c | 173.6$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.2 | 144 | 46.5%67 W · 77 L | -3.3wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 55c | 170.08$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.53 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed Yes | 47c | 154.62$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.67 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbddc…5d4fbacked Yes | 37c | 133.42$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 644 | 46.4%299 W · 345 L | +19.3wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1826…c31ebacked Yes | 49c | 126.53$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +1.5wins | +0.11per pick | 43cpaid | +36%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b73…174ebacked Yes | 40c | 87.01$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.81 | 172 | 47.7%82 W · 90 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 60c | 85.42$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.56 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 49c | 81.96$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.16 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…0a64backed Yes | 49c | 70.6$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.59 | 1,010 | 58.1%587 W · 423 L | -34.0wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed Yes | 42c | 66.08$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.08 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 44c | 63.93$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.25 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 23c | 63.2$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.85 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x441a…e9c7backed No | 46c | 62.05$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.57 | 395 | 43.5%172 W · 223 L | -12.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 57c | 60$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.8 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x14a0…d8e3backed Yes | 42c | 59.99$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.4 | 41 | 53.7%22 W · 19 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 50c | 59.71$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.96 | 1,316 | 56.2%740 W · 576 L | -18.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed No | 62c | 57.99$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.04 | 869 | 49.8%433 W · 436 L | -24.0wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x885f…7bf9backed No | 53c | 55.56$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.24 | 546 | 56.4%308 W · 238 L | +15.6wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 39c | 54.97$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.41 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed Yes | 46c | 54$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.84 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 27c | 51.96$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.03 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf18c…18c1backed No | 64c | 50.58$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.21 | 439 | 59.5%261 W · 178 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb31b…b140backed Yes | 45c | 50.46$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.71 | 559 | 54.7%306 W · 253 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8547…39abbacked Yes | 44c | 50$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 148 | 33.1%49 W · 99 L | -4.4wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed Yes | 48c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 1,075 | 54.8%589 W · 486 L | -17.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 43c | 47.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.45 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1894…a936backed Yes | 43c | 45.96$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.87 | 667 | 58%387 W · 280 L | +48.0wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x986b…2721backed No | 58c | 45.65$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.14 | 203 | 58.1%118 W · 85 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked No | 47c | 44.48$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.64 | 771 | 51%393 W · 378 L | +23.7wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…4420backed No | 57c | 42$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.06 | 895 | 57.2%512 W · 383 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 73c | 41.09$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.1 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked No | 55c | 41$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.64 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 78c | 40.64$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.83 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x65f7…86ddbacked No | 56c | 40$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.6 | 257 | 58%149 W · 108 L | +7.5wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x831a…ad82backed No | 51c | 38$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.62 | 196 | 48.5%95 W · 101 L | +9.9wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcfc7…2c88backed Yes | 57c | 36.88$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x41e6…66b7backed No | 55c | 36.03$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.21 | 468 | 57.3%268 W · 200 L | -22.3wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa755…6c5bbacked Yes | 38c | 32.16$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.22 | 125 | 30.4%38 W · 87 L | -8.4wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa95c…171dbacked Yes | 34c | 31.18$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.58 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5bb4…f3a4backed No | 54c | 26.01$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.96 | 35 | 60%21 W · 14 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xccf2…b206backed Yes | 59c | 23.83$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f7c…34e7backed No | 75c | 23$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.75 | 185 | 67.6%125 W · 60 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9aa8…63a4backed No | 55c | 22.74$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.23 | 115 | 25.2%29 W · 86 L | -9.8wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5a3b…957bbacked Yes | 67c | 22.5$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.98 | 370 | 56.5%209 W · 161 L | +31.7wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +19%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 64c | 21.35$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.77 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf2cf…464bbacked No | 58c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 1,115 | 63.4%707 W · 408 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 55c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc6e2…06f4backed No | 57c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 184 | 49.5%91 W · 93 L | -4.6wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x813f…26ecbacked No | 62c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.6 | 809 | 62.1%502 W · 307 L | -22.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e89…e7edbacked No | 54c | 18.86$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.68 | 547 | 35.5%194 W · 353 L | +11.5wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 69c | 16.44$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.02 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 64c | 15.97$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.68 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef61…2ee6backed No | 68c | 14.71$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.71 | 335 | 50.4%169 W · 166 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 96-97°F on August 13?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 92-93°F on August 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 94-95°F on August 13?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 98-99°F on August 13?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.