College Football · resolved market
Army vs. Kansas State
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1f65eb1fdfda4e6dbb14816be5fd478afbbda4188001318620f55fae57a68015
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Armyof Army, Kansas State
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- College Footballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $327,685
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $348,149
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $327,685 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in College Football is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in College Football | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdf2e…ddecbacked Army | 49c | 52,855$26,145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26,710.21 | 405 | 49.4%200 W · 205 L | +10.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Kansas State | 67c | 43,444$29,198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29,198.02 | 862 | 43.7%377 W · 485 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed Kansas State | 72c | 12,371$8,917 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,917.07 | 648 | 41.2%267 W · 381 L | +12.4wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x481b…74c1backed Army | 43c | 10,758$4,586 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,171.24 | 237 | 51.1%121 W · 116 L | +6.8wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xebc0…fa41backed Army | 22c | 10,607$2,317 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,290.51 | 154 | 51.9%80 W · 74 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa983…46a3backed Kansas State | 53c | 8,331$4,400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,400 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | +1.8wins | +0.11per pick | 58cpaid | +22.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7197…14c8backed Army | 16c | 8,301$1,293 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,007.92 | 34 | 38.2%13 W · 21 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x197f…dc8dbacked Kansas State | 71c | 7,089$5,018 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,017.68 | 38 | 50%19 W · 19 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d0f…4faabacked Army | 13c | 6,263$814 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,448.81 | 155 | 39.4%61 W · 94 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2873…ad0abacked Army | 66c | 5,675$3,723 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,952 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16b1…968abacked Army | 15c | 3,924$579 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,344.79 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | +2.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Army | 8c | 3,562$297 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,265.56 | 859 | 47.7%410 W · 449 L | +14.9wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x067f…e041backed Army | 12c | 2,929$351 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,577.18 | 191 | 20.9%40 W · 151 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x486e…c403backed Army | 35c | 2,470$873 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,596.9 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb13d…2e90backed Army | 17c | 2,176$370 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,806.47 | 108 | 51.9%56 W · 52 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a61…b560backed Kansas State | 76c | 1,882$1,438 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,438.42 | 68 | 38.2%26 W · 42 L | -3.1wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b90…3d27backed Army | 46c | 1,595$727 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$868.95 | 110 | 22.7%25 W · 85 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4132…a5a5backed Army | 9c | 1,116$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,015.59 | 52 | 44.2%23 W · 29 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ffb…a834backed Army | 12c | 1,000$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$880 | 37 | 59.5%22 W · 15 L | +7.6wins | +0.21per pick | 39cpaid | +600.4%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x699d…7b47backed Army | 11c | 998.87$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$888.99 | 31 | 19.4%6 W · 25 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Army | 13c | 939.71$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$818.94 | 402 | 44.8%180 W · 222 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x97e1…017bbacked Army | 12c | 612.39$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$538.99 | 48 | 41.7%20 W · 28 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3989…27b1backed Army | 15c | 600$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$511.13 | 135 | 48.9%66 W · 69 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ac…4ec7backed Army | 14c | 600$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$513 | 71 | 23.9%17 W · 54 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 24cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed Kansas State | 57c | 296$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.9 | 305 | 48.9%149 W · 156 L | -6.1wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…06c9backed Army | 38c | 263.16$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.16 | 46 | 41.3%19 W · 27 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x371a…34b0backed Kansas State | 9c | 222$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.98 | 237 | 0.8%2 W · 235 L | -5.0wins | -0.02per pick | 3cpaid | -98.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Army | 38c | 183.87$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.49 | 553 | 50.3%278 W · 275 L | +9.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -11%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Army | 78c | 178$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.47 | 632 | 43.7%276 W · 356 L | +34.8wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | +138.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x328e…dc42backed Kansas State | 24c | 163$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.47 | 58 | 44.8%26 W · 32 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6239…c24fbacked Kansas State | 75c | 137.68$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.43 | 494 | 43.7%216 W · 278 L | -9.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51fd…4272backed Army | 14c | 100$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86 | 473 | 31.5%149 W · 324 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea9e…d3fbbacked Army | 15c | 100$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85 | 184 | 16.8%31 W · 153 L | -3.3wins | -0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f84…f1c4backed Army | 14c | 100$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.21per pick | 29cpaid | +129.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in College Football and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Army vs. Kansas Statethis page
- Spread: Kansas State (-18.5)Army won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.