MLB · resolved market
Atlanta Braves vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 9.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1f6a90c0c4f3b56dbd2c8f1a1a49f642b15a4b7ac3785e132588edc81ac79b23
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $126,405
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $124,362
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $126,405 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 52 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x63a5…8e33backed Under | 56c | 106,863$59,899 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46,964.79 | 64 | 45.3%29 W · 35 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb45a…192cbacked Over | 44c | 99,713$43,874 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43,873.59 | 411 | 49.1%202 W · 209 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 43c | 12,137$5,273 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,273.29 | 1,355 | 49.8%675 W · 680 L | +7.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb7f5…c669backed Under | 56c | 9,000$5,040 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,959.99 | 479 | 53.2%255 W · 224 L | +18.0wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Over | 44c | 3,164$1,402 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,402.11 | 2,389 | 43.4%1,037 W · 1,352 L | -25.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Over | 44c | 2,421$1,062 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,062.2 | 6,999 | 50.6%3,538 W · 3,461 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef46…b0eabacked Over | 44c | 1,000$440 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$440 | 54 | 35.2%19 W · 35 L | -6.8wins | -0.13per pick | 48cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd092…342abacked Under | 56c | 782.14$438 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$344.01 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | -3.1wins | -0.13per pick | 59cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5966…af5dbacked Under | 57c | 599.13$342 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$257.63 | 274 | 49.3%135 W · 139 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf26…6fe2backed Over | 44c | 564.47$248 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$248.36 | 42 | 47.6%20 W · 22 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc1b5…c8f8backed Over | 45c | 537.22$242 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$241.75 | 1,708 | 49.9%852 W · 856 L | -17.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Under | 55c | 515.67$283 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$232.34 | 6,123 | 55.4%3,390 W · 2,733 L | +346.0wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Over | 44c | 500$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220 | 5,471 | 50.5%2,763 W · 2,708 L | +21.8wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x004e…c650backed Over | 45c | 433.47$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.06 | 60 | 48.3%29 W · 31 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed Over | 47c | 416.32$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.59 | 1,053 | 47.3%498 W · 555 L | -14.7wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x76e4…febcbacked Over | 44c | 329.61$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.03 | 90 | 45.6%41 W · 49 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc81a…c368backed Over | 44c | 270$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.8 | 404 | 46.5%188 W · 216 L | +4.5wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1880…a421backed Over | 44c | 219.64$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.64 | 34 | 52.9%18 W · 16 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x98d0…f14abacked Under | 55c | 195.99$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.2 | 199 | 51.8%103 W · 96 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe226…95a5backed Under | 56c | 173.86$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.5 | 54 | 51.9%28 W · 26 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c8a…02acbacked Under | 56c | 153.27$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.44 | 77 | 46.8%36 W · 41 L | -4.8wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Over | 46c | 153.23$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.16 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Over | 31c | 121.75$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.32 | 1,928 | 17.2%331 W · 1,597 L | -320.9wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x412f…30fabacked Over | 44c | 117.23$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.58 | 57 | 26.3%15 W · 42 L | -3.0wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | +221.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8fb4…d080backed Under | 56c | 111.57$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.09 | 142 | 45.8%65 W · 77 L | -5.3wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x22cf…b815backed Over | 14c | 101.49$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.75 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.8wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Under | 55c | 100$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 2,947 | 51.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L | -34.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5668…eababacked Under | 56c | 95.62$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.07 | 83 | 51.8%43 W · 40 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca2d…39edbacked Over | 45c | 92.83$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.77 | 232 | 48.7%113 W · 119 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc33d…0d40backed Over | 41c | 83.19$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.49 | 432 | 43.1%186 W · 246 L | -13.5wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -20%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed Under | 56c | 65.22$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.7 | 123 | 39%48 W · 75 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1243…2a64backed Over | 45c | 64.47$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.01 | 82 | 48.8%40 W · 42 L | -5.2wins | -0.06per pick | 55cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x700f…a69bbacked Over | 37c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 63 | 57.1%36 W · 27 L | +7.1wins | +0.11per pick | 46cpaid | +28.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Under | 54c | 50$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 781 | 46.4%362 W · 419 L | +11.8wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17f5…3e64backed Under | 56c | 46.12$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.29 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0bec…c707backed Under | 56c | 46.12$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.29 | 88 | 47.7%42 W · 46 L | -5.1wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2ee7…4c1abacked Under | 56c | 46.12$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.29 | 92 | 55.4%51 W · 41 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8900…a444backed Under | 56c | 46.12$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.29 | 33 | 60.6%20 W · 13 L | +2.0wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30db…44e1backed Under | 56c | 46.12$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.29 | 194 | 52.6%102 W · 92 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x94d4…18f9backed Under | 56c | 46.12$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.29 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +1.9wins | +0.13per pick | 58cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc9b7…93ebbacked Under | 56c | 43.46$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.12 | 92 | 54.3%50 W · 42 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2528…b77dbacked Over | 45c | 42.52$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.13 | 1,630 | 55.2%899 W · 731 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa5aa…e292backed Under | 79c | 39.94$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.39 | 107 | 57.9%62 W · 45 L | +2.8wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0bbd…98f2backed Over | 45c | 38.68$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.41 | 187 | 51.3%96 W · 91 L | +9.9wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x51eb…6bfabacked Under | 56c | 34.77$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.3 | 704 | 55%387 W · 317 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d49…e00abacked Over | 41c | 34.25$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.2 | 667 | 49.3%329 W · 338 L | -22.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x65f6…8333backed Over | 45c | 33.71$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.17 | 34 | 44.1%15 W · 19 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04fb…47f9backed Under | 56c | 33.62$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.62 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x104b…ed6bbacked Over | 46c | 31.3$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.37 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -1.5wins | -0.08per pick | 47cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Under | 56c | 31.02$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.65 | 2,995 | 50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L | -36.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5cb4…4576backed Over | 44c | 29.5$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.13 | 186 | 49.5%92 W · 94 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16ea…9400backed Over | 44c | 22.9$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 252 | 49.6%125 W · 127 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Atlanta Braves vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 9.5this page
- Atlanta Braves vs. Arizona DiamondbacksAtlanta Braves won
- Atlanta Braves vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 2.5Under won
- Atlanta Braves vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-1.5)Atlanta Braves won
- Spread: Atlanta Braves (-1.5)Atlanta Braves won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.