NHL · resolved market
Flyers vs. Blues: O/U 5.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1f831d7bca8f0fa9ba24dc6b9202364785f0c107ccf24b0e9915f0e5e2987964
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,536
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,552
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,536 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Under | 52c | 4,222$2,195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,195.48 | 895 | 47%421 W · 474 L | -18.0wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 48c | 3,683$1,768 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,915.12 | 2,894 | 51.3%1,484 W · 1,410 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb7f5…c669backed Under | 51c | 1,741$888 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$887.7 | 510 | 45.5%232 W · 278 L | -9.3wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d5c…0182backed Over | 51c | 1,438$733 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$704.69 | 283 | 53%150 W · 133 L | +16.6wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5139…a8dbbacked Over | 49c | 1,020$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$520.2 | 574 | 53.8%309 W · 265 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Under | 49c | 978.69$478 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$478.23 | 874 | 47%411 W · 463 L | +3.5wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x53ab…65aabacked Under | 49c | 599.99$294 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$294 | 49 | 38.8%19 W · 30 L | -6.3wins | -0.13per pick | 52cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf457…d1a6backed Under | 52c | 384.62$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 86 | 48.8%42 W · 44 L | -2.6wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84d9…76dbbacked Over | 52c | 319.23$166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.23 | 485 | 52.2%253 W · 232 L | +8.1wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x57a8…6933backed Over | 49c | 277$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.27 | 388 | 44.6%173 W · 215 L | -17.1wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6d01…0ab1backed Under | 50c | 274.72$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.36 | 759 | 46.6%354 W · 405 L | -3.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x91fd…e4c8backed Over | 50c | 274.72$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.36 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 49c | 200$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98 | 1,555 | 51.4%800 W · 755 L | +12.2wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8059…c043backed Over | 51c | 200$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98 | 366 | 52.7%193 W · 173 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Over | 49c | 169$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86 | 1,948 | 49.4%962 W · 986 L | +24.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f1f…0b36backed Over | 50c | 150$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75 | 94 | 44.7%42 W · 52 L | -4.3wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x205f…0189backed Over | 52c | 132.69$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.69 | 153 | 47.7%73 W · 80 L | -7.7wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcd33…81d1backed Over | 50c | 60$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | +1.8wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4c4b…ec5ebacked Over | 49c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.5 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -4.1wins | -0.29per pick | 58cpaid | -49.3%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xf2c2…4de7backed Under | 51c | 50$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 380 | 46.6%177 W · 203 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c9b…e74abacked Over | 51c | 44.71$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.71 | 784 | 43.8%343 W · 441 L | +8.1wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbda3…ef65backed Under | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 49 | 53.1%26 W · 23 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x46a0…f721backed Over | 49c | 30.59$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.6 | 86 | 46.5%40 W · 46 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc5f8…148fbacked Over | 52c | 26.92$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.92 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.28per pick | 53cpaid | -51.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8b47…5286backed Over | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 178 | 45.5%81 W · 97 L | -6.9wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Flyers vs. Blues: O/U 5.5this page
- Flyers vs. BluesFlyers won
- Spread: Blues (-1.5)Flyers won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.