Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 72°F or higher on May 2?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1f882afd2d0655ad0ee6bf1cb786bf9af632db61442fd1aba4405475013ff067
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,183
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,632
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,183 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 63 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 62c | 584.16$363 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$221.31 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 76c | 474.5$360 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.26 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 29c | 349.36$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.29 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa17…aa48backed No | 22c | 317.99$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.85 | 122 | 26.2%32 W · 90 L | +10.2wins | +0.08per pick | 18cpaid | +133.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf967…1adfbacked Yes | 76c | 280.27$214 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.61 | 312 | 62.5%195 W · 117 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x831a…ad82backed Yes | 21c | 269.9$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$213.22 | 196 | 48.5%95 W · 101 L | +9.9wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x784a…06c3backed Yes | 70c | 266.05$185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.05 | 340 | 50.6%172 W · 168 L | -10.0wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xefae…3acebacked Yes | 75c | 253.96$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.43 | 268 | 27.2%73 W · 195 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b20…bc23backed No | 79c | 253$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.87 | 811 | 65.8%534 W · 277 L | -37.1wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked Yes | 67c | 244.33$163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.37 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd3…ccacbacked No | 25c | 209.7$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.42 | 346 | 24.3%84 W · 262 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 72c | 201.3$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.75 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 21c | 190.88$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.77 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f60…026abacked No | 33c | 188.81$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.39 | 999 | 63.5%634 W · 365 L | -3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 22c | 152.27$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.78 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2e62…b22ebacked No | 31c | 128.2$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.14 | 749 | 26.7%200 W · 549 L | -20.6wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 50c | 123.55$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.54 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x23d8…f6b9backed Yes | 73c | 120$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.01 | 251 | 75.7%190 W · 61 L | +24.7wins | +0.10per pick | 66cpaid | +14%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f8…f4cbbacked Yes | 69c | 111$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.03 | 812 | 34.1%277 W · 535 L | +56.9wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4320…4a44backed No | 28c | 107$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.9 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 24c | 104.2$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.79 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 29c | 100.33$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.92 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa0b1…6754backed Yes | 73c | 97.37$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.29 | 354 | 65%230 W · 124 L | +6.8wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff74…5de4backed Yes | 70c | 90.12$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.78 | 659 | 34.1%225 W · 434 L | +36.6wins | +0.06per pick | 29cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6409…9411backed No | 36c | 88.21$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 825 | 62.2%513 W · 312 L | -23.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4d45…652abacked No | 27c | 80$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.95 | 35 | 51.4%18 W · 17 L | +3.6wins | +0.10per pick | 41cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x57e3…a500backed No | 24c | 74.54$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.68 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed Yes | 77c | 70.57$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.58 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd1…557ebacked Yes | 77c | 66.78$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.09 | 1,169 | 59.4%694 W · 475 L | +30.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1ab9…8ba6backed No | 17c | 61.66$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.44 | 304 | 42.8%130 W · 174 L | +8.5wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3302…489dbacked No | 30c | 59.96$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.03 | 22 | 4.5%1 W · 21 L | -2.0wins | -0.09per pick | 14cpaid | -85.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xde57…76a4backed Yes | 49c | 59.63$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.46 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +93.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b74…cbaebacked No | 26c | 56.96$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.69 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.13per pick | 24cpaid | -79.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa708…9321backed No | 31c | 55.93$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.15 | 1,299 | 57.5%747 W · 552 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2bb…ae21backed Yes | 56c | 53.83$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.89 | 353 | 62.9%222 W · 131 L | +16.9wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbd0d…1fb4backed Yes | 76c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.1 | 242 | 38%92 W · 150 L | +11.6wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd78c…a66ebacked No | 54c | 50$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 728 | 37.8%275 W · 453 L | -12.0wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7bd5…4390backed Yes | 80c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 66 | 60.6%40 W · 26 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f8a…b076backed Yes | 54c | 48.59$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.35 | 208 | 35.6%74 W · 134 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x95bb…fae8backed Yes | 68c | 44.09$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.09 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +12%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 77c | 43$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.83 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x068c…c5bebacked Yes | 70c | 40$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.2 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 68c | 39.56$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.64 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x3066…1e7bbacked Yes | 69c | 36.49$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.29 | 92 | 70.7%65 W · 27 L | +10.7wins | +0.12per pick | 59cpaid | +25.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xcd9b…492abacked Yes | 80c | 36.44$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.29 | 173 | 65.3%113 W · 60 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 77c | 30.03$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.83 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e99…b482backed Yes | 75c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 425 | 44%187 W · 238 L | +15.1wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef14…3edabacked No | 50c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 177 | 44.6%79 W · 98 L | -10.1wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x13d2…6f72backed No | 46c | 27.29$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.55 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x76f7…d7cdbacked Yes | 75c | 26.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.67 | 25 | 72%18 W · 7 L | +2.1wins | +0.09per pick | 63cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6572…3968backed Yes | 72c | 25.21$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.06 | 45 | 71.1%32 W · 13 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 71cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 79c | 25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.75 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb8fc…88e1backed Yes | 62c | 25$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.5 | 1,298 | 33.1%430 W · 868 L | +39.5wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5757…9e19backed Yes | 78c | 22.91$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.04 | 451 | 62.1%280 W · 171 L | +19.8wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe07e…0e7ebacked Yes | 77c | 20.79$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.87 | 334 | 50.6%169 W · 165 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5308…a8f6backed Yes | 74c | 20.27$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.27 | 38 | 65.8%25 W · 13 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5848…1e49backed No | 53c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 863 | 62.9%543 W · 320 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x958a…9f65backed Yes | 68c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.5 | 558 | 55.2%308 W · 250 L | -10.0wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0080…923cbacked Yes | 67c | 19.4$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.4 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x733b…f7f7backed Yes | 70c | 17.69$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.3 | 78 | 47.4%37 W · 41 L | -7.8wins | -0.10per pick | 57cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7447…1480backed No | 64c | 16$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 105 | 18.1%19 W · 86 L | -8.8wins | -0.08per pick | 27cpaid | -49.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xef2e…10c3backed Yes | 73c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.1 | 402 | 42.5%171 W · 231 L | -12.4wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x96cf…644abacked Yes | 75c | 14.09$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.52 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 72°F or higher on May 2?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 66-67°F on May 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 68-69°F on May 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 70-71°F on May 2?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.