Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 70-71°F on May 2?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x99e7e0be5a4281a4c44feb850907ca2627cc3e86968f7de99e966139a31d44f7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $43,349
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $42,505
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $43,349 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 55 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd4d1…1733backed Yes | 0c | 34,000$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 213 | 38.5%82 W · 131 L | -9.8wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd36…a832backed Yes | 22c | 488.83$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.31 | 650 | 43.4%282 W · 368 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 20c | 442.76$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.06 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa17…aa48backed Yes | 14c | 353.54$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.81 | 122 | 26.2%32 W · 90 L | +10.2wins | +0.08per pick | 18cpaid | +133.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf56c…ad84backed Yes | 4c | 300$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 507 | 3.4%17 W · 490 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 28c | 264.7$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.52 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b20…bc23backed No | 79c | 253$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.72 | 811 | 65.8%534 W · 277 L | -37.1wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 76c | 213.95$163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.65 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b74…cbaebacked Yes | 15c | 179.53$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.67 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.13per pick | 24cpaid | -79.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x12ce…2b5cbacked Yes | 25c | 175$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.43 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe99…9ca7backed Yes | 28c | 166.1$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.19 | 669 | 26.2%175 W · 494 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 30c | 157.95$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.7 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fb4…b9edbacked Yes | 22c | 153.93$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.86 | 421 | 30.4%128 W · 293 L | +19.5wins | +0.05per pick | 26cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c12…b669backed No | 79c | 144$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.24 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.16per pick | 70cpaid | +22.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x784a…06c3backed Yes | 22c | 139.81$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 340 | 50.6%172 W · 168 L | -10.0wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked No | 74c | 136.41$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.09 | 1,420 | 58.7%833 W · 587 L | +69.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed Yes | 15c | 122.52$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.79 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 77c | 121.35$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.9 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82f3…9f82backed Yes | 10c | 108$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 1,455 | 24.7%359 W · 1,096 L | -33.3wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f8…f4cbbacked Yes | 13c | 100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 812 | 34.1%277 W · 535 L | +56.9wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8842…dfa7backed Yes | 25c | 93.13$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.92 | 452 | 36.5%165 W · 287 L | +20.0wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x57e3…a500backed Yes | 16c | 91.02$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.2 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 69c | 85.29$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.81 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3322…7dc2backed Yes | 24c | 83.32$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.9 | 152 | 36.2%55 W · 97 L | +5.4wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3646…ba5abacked Yes | 21c | 77.03$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.27 | 407 | 41.3%168 W · 239 L | +32.5wins | +0.08per pick | 33cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbd6c…1e6dbacked Yes | 34c | 59.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.3 | 327 | 38.2%125 W · 202 L | +8.7wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 73c | 57.94$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.72 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd78c…a66ebacked Yes | 27c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.75 | 728 | 37.8%275 W · 453 L | -12.0wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b18…2639backed Yes | 30c | 49.43$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 438 | 42%184 W · 254 L | -14.7wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd611…53c8backed No | 80c | 47.43$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.49 | 72 | 77.8%56 W · 16 L | +3.6wins | +0.05per pick | 73cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb675…9f60backed Yes | 28c | 46.46$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4179…cceebacked No | 75c | 43.76$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.94 | 429 | 76.5%328 W · 101 L | +4.5wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a5c…e8f2backed Yes | 27c | 40$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 107 | 36.4%39 W · 68 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked Yes | 27c | 38$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.26 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde57…76a4backed No | 67c | 36.9$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.18 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +93.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf576…a786backed No | 67c | 35.01$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.55 | 376 | 69.4%261 W · 115 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 69cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f1e…f21ebacked No | 78c | 34$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f0b…8202backed Yes | 41c | 31.71$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 104 | 41.3%43 W · 61 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 76c | 30.46$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.18 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f60…026abacked No | 78c | 30.38$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.68 | 999 | 63.5%634 W · 365 L | -3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 71c | 28$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.12 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa081…e7a0backed No | 77c | 25.95$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 389 | 61.7%240 W · 149 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6572…3968backed No | 78c | 25.59$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.63 | 45 | 71.1%32 W · 13 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 71cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2869…527dbacked No | 78c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.51 | 937 | 34.9%327 W · 610 L | -203.5wins | -0.22per pick | 57cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 79c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.25 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 74c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.5 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x901f…64f0backed No | 80c | 22$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.4 | 131 | 33.6%44 W · 87 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb8f6…a71bbacked No | 78c | 21.79$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.79 | 33 | 66.7%22 W · 11 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcaaa…da37backed No | 71c | 21$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.02 | 446 | 59%263 W · 183 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5848…1e49backed No | 64c | 19.99$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.3 | 863 | 62.9%543 W · 320 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 72c | 18.33$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.13 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcd61…02d4backed No | 76c | 17.34$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.22 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | -2.4wins | -0.09per pick | 57cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8215…1279backed No | 77c | 16$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.62 | 387 | 58.7%227 W · 160 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85c8…80f8backed No | 73c | 15.89$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.28 | 391 | 58.1%227 W · 164 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb34d…e1bdbacked No | 73c | 14.79$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.99 | 81 | 64.2%52 W · 29 L | +4.1wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 70-71°F on May 2?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 72°F or higher on May 2?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 66-67°F on May 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 68-69°F on May 2?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.