Bundesliga · resolved market
Will FC Augsburg vs. Hamburger SV end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1f8aa7b470ec772af16db070a9e4848957945de5a76609807ca358f1bc09752d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,863
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,969
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,863 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf519…906bbacked Yes | 28c | 5,457$1,528 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,528.08 | 166 | 47%78 W · 88 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x31b0…8c4cbacked Yes | 32c | 3,092$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +2.4wins | +0.14per pick | 39cpaid | +41.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 62c | 2,302$1,436 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$866.52 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b8e…5c3cbacked No | 72c | 2,000$1,440 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$560 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -3.7wins | -0.23per pick | 54cpaid | -47%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6ade…f5b0backed No | 72c | 1,775$1,278 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$497 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -1.8wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -42%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x460a…d738backed Yes | 27c | 1,111$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 68 | 27.9%19 W · 49 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -10%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde53…e5bebacked No | 73c | 988.11$721 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$266.79 | 77 | 58.4%45 W · 32 L | -3.7wins | -0.05per pick | 63cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 67c | 850.04$572 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$278.1 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9020…2cfcbacked Yes | 18c | 555.56$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | +3.9wins | +0.15per pick | 29cpaid | +51.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed No | 70c | 486.95$339 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.37 | 751 | 42.5%319 W · 432 L | -26.7wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked Yes | 14c | 449.76$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.87 | 569 | 51.8%295 W · 274 L | +10.0wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfefb…4b5dbacked Yes | 21c | 269.23$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.54 | 238 | 42.9%102 W · 136 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Yes | 11c | 255.8$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.27 | 511 | 36.8%188 W · 323 L | -28.0wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked No | 71c | 241.38$171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70 | 148 | 46.6%69 W · 79 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x64ff…8f70backed Yes | 29c | 241.38$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 61 | 49.2%30 W · 31 L | +3.3wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x873a…2066backed No | 68c | 221.04$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.89 | 133 | 32.3%43 W · 90 L | -5.4wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -37%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x39aa…583cbacked Yes | 10c | 200$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -55.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked No | 70c | 198.38$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.02 | 1,355 | 50.9%690 W · 665 L | +12.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed No | 72c | 132.3$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.04 | 447 | 49.4%221 W · 226 L | +13.2wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc049…48abbacked Yes | 19c | 105.26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 61 | 42.6%26 W · 35 L | +4.2wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb4…8285backed No | 69c | 104.84$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.59 | 550 | 58.7%323 W · 227 L | +23.5wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Yes | 17c | 91$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.13 | 210 | 41.9%88 W · 122 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d24…a93fbacked No | 67c | 75$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.75 | 88 | 70.5%62 W · 26 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16ce…b3dcbacked No | 72c | 69.44$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.44 | 42 | 61.9%26 W · 16 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e8f…6b61backed No | 72c | 60$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.8 | 55 | 32.7%18 W · 37 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8421…37d7backed No | 55c | 54.55$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.55 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +75.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde17…68d2backed No | 77c | 54.28$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.63 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | -2.3wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xefa5…b417backed No | 72c | 50$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed Yes | 43c | 40$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.2 | 223 | 32.3%72 W · 151 L | -7.6wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -24%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked No | 71c | 34.48$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 193 | 47.2%91 W · 102 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x587b…2622backed No | 79c | 19.05$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 194 | 58.2%113 W · 81 L | +9.8wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +28%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will FC Augsburg vs. Hamburger SV end in a draw?this page
- Will FC Augsburg win on 2025-11-22?Yes won
- Will Hamburger SV win on 2025-11-22?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.