Bundesliga · resolved market
Will FC Augsburg win on 2025-11-22?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x58ee2392de07a7da49fd0135100ed7732f53f3ebd73d12cb980dad2f10342699
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $45,650
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $47,968
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $45,650 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 74 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc3c3…eec8backed Yes | 42c | 25,000$10,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14,500 | 114 | 45.6%52 W · 62 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe90b…5da2backed No | 58c | 24,483$14,200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14,200.19 | 94 | 55.3%52 W · 42 L | +5.6wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe930…b44dbacked Yes | 42c | 2,366$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,366.02 | 35 | 37.1%13 W · 22 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x057a…3bacbacked No | 58c | 2,052$1,187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,186.83 | 76 | 48.7%37 W · 39 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Yes | 70c | 1,419$991 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$428.59 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed No | 64c | 1,238$791 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$790.88 | 536 | 45.9%246 W · 290 L | +6.7wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf699…07e1backed Yes | 35c | 1,220$427 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$793 | 104 | 63.5%66 W · 38 L | +9.8wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | +22.5%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xed61…9aa3backed Yes | 43c | 787.15$340 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$446.9 | 150 | 64%96 W · 54 L | +25.0wins | +0.17per pick | 47cpaid | +53.3%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x3a09…f9f7backed No | 59c | 775.99$461 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$460.53 | 100 | 40%40 W · 60 L | -3.8wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -12%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed No | 59c | 589.29$347 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$347.27 | 751 | 42.5%319 W · 432 L | -26.7wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d01…0ab1backed Yes | 39c | 500$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$305 | 110 | 36.4%40 W · 70 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7203…c123backed Yes | 38c | 468.71$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$288.71 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +2.3wins | +0.57per pick | 43cpaid | +137.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x14fa…73f0backed Yes | 43c | 465.12$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$265.12 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +1.3wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed No | 52c | 416.17$216 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215.88 | 511 | 36.8%188 W · 323 L | -28.0wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked Yes | 61c | 339.18$206 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.33 | 569 | 51.8%295 W · 274 L | +10.0wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35b9…1d44backed Yes | 40c | 300$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180 | 50 | 44%22 W · 28 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca38…460bbacked Yes | 43c | 300$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171 | 28 | 28.6%8 W · 20 L | -4.2wins | -0.15per pick | 43cpaid | -43%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x873a…2066backed No | 48c | 288.29$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.61 | 133 | 32.3%43 W · 90 L | -5.4wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -37%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec92…98f5backed Yes | 41c | 265$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.35 | 34 | 47.1%16 W · 18 L | -1.9wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f84…7650backed No | 59c | 250$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.5 | 15 | 93.3%14 W · 1 L | +3.7wins | +0.24per pick | 69cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x33a7…960dbacked Yes | 40c | 250$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150 | 116 | 30.2%35 W · 81 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb4…8285backed No | 64c | 222.33$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.33 | 550 | 58.7%323 W · 227 L | +23.5wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb531…b230backed Yes | 43c | 211.63$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.63 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +2.5wins | +0.16per pick | 44cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf641…7b6fbacked Yes | 73c | 211.62$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.14 | 226 | 69%156 W · 70 L | +13.1wins | +0.06per pick | 63cpaid | +25.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 36c | 207.12$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.15 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1346…8502backed No | 25c | 200$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfefb…4b5dbacked Yes | 77c | 182.84$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.37 | 238 | 42.9%102 W · 136 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b29…1f46backed Yes | 40c | 125$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | +3.1wins | +0.12per pick | 34cpaid | +38.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe071…d24cbacked Yes | 44c | 118.18$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.18 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8993…222dbacked Yes | 43c | 116.28$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.28 | 52 | 59.6%31 W · 21 L | +4.7wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb97e…4d9abacked Yes | 44c | 113.64$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.64 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed No | 59c | 103.24$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.36 | 165 | 42.4%70 W · 95 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x11f0…890dbacked Yes | 42c | 100$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58 | 90 | 62.2%56 W · 34 L | +6.4wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x66fe…e123backed No | 59c | 100$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -2.7wins | -0.19per pick | 55cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe9b1…815bbacked Yes | 41c | 73$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.84 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16ce…b3dcbacked Yes | 44c | 68.18$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.18 | 42 | 61.9%26 W · 16 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d3…9d4bbacked No | 58c | 62.56$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.28 | 242 | 58.7%142 W · 100 L | +11.2wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0ac3…ef53backed Yes | 41c | 62.24$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.72 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf142…57e7backed Yes | 38c | 62.24$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.59 | 230 | 46.5%107 W · 123 L | -6.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x522f…79c2backed Yes | 25c | 61$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.75 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec89…3286backed No | 59c | 59.32$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 40 | 30%12 W · 28 L | -7.1wins | -0.18per pick | 48cpaid | -41.4%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Yes | 42c | 59$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.22 | 151 | 34.4%52 W · 99 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed No | 61c | 54.33$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.14 | 74 | 47.3%35 W · 39 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a7…8150backed No | 59c | 50.85$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 14 | 78.6%11 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.08per pick | 70cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb327…0fccbacked Yes | 39c | 50.77$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.97 | 41 | 36.6%15 W · 26 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f48…5eb6backed No | 59c | 50$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x859e…d21fbacked Yes | 41c | 50$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.59per pick | 41cpaid | +143.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed No | 61c | 50$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.45 | 98 | 46.9%46 W · 52 L | -5.7wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x462a…f637backed No | 59c | 50$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x05a9…0e00backed Yes | 41c | 50$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.59per pick | 41cpaid | +143.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2886…0e62backed No | 26c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c4a…8e5dbacked No | 58c | 49.24$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.78 | 154 | 54.5%84 W · 70 L | +4.4wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x510b…fdedbacked Yes | 43c | 46.51$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.51 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Yes | 41c | 45.1$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.7 | 447 | 49.4%221 W · 226 L | +13.2wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x587b…2622backed Yes | 52c | 43.46$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.86 | 194 | 58.2%113 W · 81 L | +9.8wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +28%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc995…25c2backed Yes | 37c | 41.54$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.17 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf09d…115fbacked Yes | 35c | 38.52$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.12 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +3.0wins | +0.30per pick | 40cpaid | +57.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xcb6b…70fdbacked Yes | 39c | 38.46$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.46 | 44 | 54.5%24 W · 20 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +12%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5825…4ffbbacked No | 48c | 38.46$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.46 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +1.2wins | +0.09per pick | 55cpaid | +24.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4215…f03abacked No | 58c | 37.26$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.61 | 105 | 52.4%55 W · 50 L | +4.3wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x882e…e757backed No | 59c | 35$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.65 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e8f…6b61backed No | 59c | 35$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.65 | 55 | 32.7%18 W · 37 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde17…68d2backed Yes | 74c | 31.48$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.19 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | -2.3wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked No | 60c | 30$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.95 | 782 | 48.8%382 W · 400 L | -28.1wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a59…eb2ebacked No | 58c | 30$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.4 | 87 | 64.4%56 W · 31 L | +10.2wins | +0.12per pick | 53cpaid | +22.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xaf75…7623backed No | 70c | 29.35$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.41 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 67cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x133a…f9d1backed No | 60c | 28.33$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 58 | 39.7%23 W · 35 L | -6.2wins | -0.11per pick | 50cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd610…4c9abacked No | 58c | 28$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.24 | 145 | 39.3%57 W · 88 L | -9.6wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5179…2b29backed No | 58c | 27$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.66 | 228 | 54.8%125 W · 103 L | +9.1wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed No | 50c | 25.44$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.72 | 762 | 34.8%265 W · 497 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ef4…4e4ebacked Yes | 50c | 20.44$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.22 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9014…db4abacked No | 59c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 70 | 61.4%43 W · 27 L | +5.1wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x90f9…e894backed No | 59c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 81 | 54.3%44 W · 37 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc599…2cecbacked No | 58c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 118 | 60.2%71 W · 47 L | +7.3wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +10%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will FC Augsburg win on 2025-11-22?this page
- Will FC Augsburg vs. Hamburger SV end in a draw?No won
- Will Hamburger SV win on 2025-11-22?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.