Bundesliga · resolved market
Will Hamburger SV win on 2025-11-22?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7da2464824571826b40c54d637ebdc3711f90cb3b855f650a9cfb5978457cda2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,967
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,129
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,967 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 72c | 3,177$2,298 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$879.08 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe78e…55f0backed Yes | 32c | 1,557$498 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$497.53 | 59 | 40.7%24 W · 35 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +47.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb1fe…9974backed Yes | 27c | 1,000$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$270 | 86 | 37.2%32 W · 54 L | -4.0wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb113…8bc6backed No | 67c | 988.19$661 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$327.1 | 143 | 64.3%92 W · 51 L | +14.8wins | +0.10per pick | 54cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 75c | 951.04$713 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$237.68 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec8c…3658backed Yes | 33c | 921.56$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Yes | 32c | 665$213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$212.8 | 193 | 47.2%91 W · 102 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1341…0853backed Yes | 32c | 494.12$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.12 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.20per pick | 53cpaid | -44.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xec92…98f5backed No | 68c | 424.99$289 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136 | 34 | 47.1%16 W · 18 L | -1.9wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x873a…2066backed Yes | 26c | 387.73$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.57 | 133 | 32.3%43 W · 90 L | -5.4wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -37%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2160…bcb3backed Yes | 33c | 300.82$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.36 | 99 | 37.4%37 W · 62 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39aa…583cbacked Yes | 7c | 200$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -55.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed Yes | 32c | 188.79$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.35 | 147 | 56.5%83 W · 64 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb4…8285backed No | 76c | 156.37$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.45 | 550 | 58.7%323 W · 227 L | +23.5wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc71f…bd62backed Yes | 32c | 147.95$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.17 | 49 | 42.9%21 W · 28 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1889…0714backed No | 67c | 100$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33 | 70 | 52.9%37 W · 33 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed No | 74c | 96.97$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.7 | 751 | 42.5%319 W · 432 L | -26.7wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed No | 67c | 95.69$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.15 | 447 | 49.4%221 W · 226 L | +13.2wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfefb…4b5dbacked Yes | 15c | 85.78$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.75 | 238 | 42.9%102 W · 136 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c83…6f40backed Yes | 28c | 82.04$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.97 | 65 | 46.2%30 W · 35 L | +2.5wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Yes | 33c | 80$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.4 | 151 | 34.4%52 W · 99 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed No | 68c | 75.17$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.05 | 511 | 36.8%188 W · 323 L | -28.0wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Yes | 16c | 75$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 210 | 41.9%88 W · 122 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaf75…7623backed No | 75c | 68.8$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.24 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 67cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc5b5…7e80backed Yes | 18c | 60$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x865f…e88ebacked No | 68c | 52$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.85 | 343 | 42%144 W · 199 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1947…94bcbacked No | 68c | 51.47$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.47 | 59 | 59.3%35 W · 24 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c7e…d934backed Yes | 32c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | +2.6wins | +0.12per pick | 40cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4a59…eb2ebacked No | 67c | 44$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.52 | 87 | 64.4%56 W · 31 L | +10.2wins | +0.12per pick | 53cpaid | +22.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7ac0…9784backed No | 69c | 43.48$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.48 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x71c1…e358backed Yes | 35c | 42.86$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 188 | 40.4%76 W · 112 L | +7.9wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x737c…8f13backed No | 76c | 42.11$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.11 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.26per pick | 76cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcea5…e0c1backed No | 71c | 34.48$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked No | 69c | 34$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.54 | 339 | 45.7%155 W · 184 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3fbd…c4e4backed Yes | 32c | 33.06$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.58 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.11per pick | 29cpaid | +84.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf28d…cd80backed Yes | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x397e…3d84backed No | 76c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 446 | 55.4%247 W · 199 L | +22.4wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x16b3…403bbacked No | 74c | 27.03$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.03 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcec0…82ddbacked No | 68c | 22$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.04 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +46.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x587b…2622backed No | 78c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.4 | 194 | 58.2%113 W · 81 L | +9.8wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +28%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb6d3…432abacked No | 68c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.4 | 20 | 90%18 W · 2 L | +4.1wins | +0.20per pick | 70cpaid | +30.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6a5c…b3f2backed No | 68c | 19.19$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.05 | 101 | 50.5%51 W · 50 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf265…348dbacked No | 69c | 15.94$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.94 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 72cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Hamburger SV win on 2025-11-22?this page
- Will FC Augsburg vs. Hamburger SV end in a draw?No won
- Will FC Augsburg win on 2025-11-22?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.