NHL · resolved market
Golden Knights vs. Predators: O/U 6.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1f9edceadcb2eb63b2367b0362d8d4b3813c4825da12ea2a2a1fe4eb333ed287
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,163
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,163 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe5f0…dc1dbacked Over | 47c | 5,000$2,350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,350 | 418 | 42.8%179 W · 239 L | -5.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Under | 52c | 2,612$1,368 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,243.54 | 1,846 | 57.2%1,055 W · 791 L | +85.0wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd0e7…b14fbacked Under | 55c | 1,254$690 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$564.3 | 366 | 48.6%178 W · 188 L | -14.5wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 45c | 1,183$532 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$532.32 | 2,894 | 51.3%1,484 W · 1,410 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Under | 53c | 1,158$614 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$544.26 | 1,202 | 60.1%722 W · 480 L | +51.9wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +15%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x34ca…9de7backed Under | 53c | 943.4$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$443.4 | 54 | 57.4%31 W · 23 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb580…9b95backed Under | 55c | 263$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.04 | 74 | 50%37 W · 37 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Over | 45c | 246.93$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.12 | 1,555 | 51.4%800 W · 755 L | +12.2wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab41…c453backed Over | 57c | 205$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.35 | 1,431 | 58.3%834 W · 597 L | +81.0wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 46c | 196.42$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.72 | 2,664 | 51.6%1,375 W · 1,289 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x72a1…1950backed Under | 55c | 181.82$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.82 | 106 | 57.5%61 W · 45 L | +4.9wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5aaf…61a5backed Over | 42c | 150.2$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.19 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.18per pick | 43cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbd7…6d6cbacked Over | 68c | 150$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102 | 152 | 65.1%99 W · 53 L | +3.9wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 42c | 141.72$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.32 | 3,704 | 50.5%1,871 W · 1,833 L | +105.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f6d…3070backed Over | 19c | 126.44$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.56 | 85 | 48.2%41 W · 44 L | +4.7wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc0f8…ae2ebacked Over | 74c | 86.69$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.96 | 51 | 54.9%28 W · 23 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2886…9bb2backed Under | 32c | 70$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.6 | 53 | 52.8%28 W · 25 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75dc…4f82backed Under | 41c | 66.44$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.5 | 174 | 56.3%98 W · 76 L | +5.1wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa77a…e6f9backed Over | 42c | 62.16$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.21 | 151 | 45%68 W · 83 L | -4.6wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c08…af98backed Under | 70c | 56.97$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.97 | 337 | 56.4%190 W · 147 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ac…4ec7backed Over | 47c | 53.93$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.35 | 318 | 28.3%90 W · 228 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x73a2…3b68backed Under | 53c | 53.91$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.34 | 153 | 68%104 W · 49 L | +11.6wins | +0.08per pick | 60cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd0e1…99dbbacked Over | 22c | 51.88$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.35 | 119 | 49.6%59 W · 60 L | +6.0wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4861…4fcabacked Under | 49c | 49.04$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.12 | 227 | 59.5%135 W · 92 L | +9.0wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Over | 33c | 40.29$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.14 | 2,754 | 47.9%1,318 W · 1,436 L | +11.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd4c…394abacked Under | 55c | 36.36$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.36 | 81 | 46.9%38 W · 43 L | -6.0wins | -0.07per pick | 54cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8614…ffc6backed Under | 59c | 33.88$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.89 | 37 | 54.1%20 W · 17 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Under | 54c | 30.87$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.2 | 1,190 | 50.7%603 W · 587 L | +13.3wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x95cc…fffdbacked Under | 79c | 25.37$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.37 | 36 | 61.1%22 W · 14 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Under | 48c | 25$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.12 | 920 | 49.7%457 W · 463 L | +14.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x782b…ff64backed Over | 48c | 25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.1 | 326 | 53.1%173 W · 153 L | +18.1wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc33d…0d40backed Under | 49c | 24.16$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.33 | 253 | 45.5%115 W · 138 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Over | 53c | 20.24$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.68 | 198 | 44.9%89 W · 109 L | -6.0wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Golden Knights vs. Predators: O/U 6.5this page
- Golden Knights vs. PredatorsPredators won
- Golden Knights vs. Predators: O/U 5.5Under won
- Golden Knights vs. Predators: O/U 7.5Under won
- Spread: Golden Knights (-1.5)Predators won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.