Tennis · resolved market
ITF Samobor: Andrej Nedic vs Sebastian Sorger
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1fbd3d6ac6dd4f4693e4d6d9f7309a3c8f6ef3dcf4346b7f92204afdf03e8f65
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Andrej Nedicof Andrej Nedic, Sebastian Sorger
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,830
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,562
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,830 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Andrej Nedic | 72c | 2,264$1,641 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$622.64 | 4,921 | 38.7%1,905 W · 3,016 L | -20.0wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3054…055bbacked Sebastian Sorger | 25c | 400$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 137 | 52.6%72 W · 65 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Andrej Nedic | 68c | 386.32$262 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.73 | 6,449 | 46.3%2,987 W · 3,462 L | -42.9wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17ef…9a2cbacked Sebastian Sorger | 31c | 257.14$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 788 | 57.1%450 W · 338 L | +13.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9c9…6686backed Sebastian Sorger | 30c | 209.25$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.48 | 1,337 | 46%615 W · 722 L | +23.1wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe9d1…6194backed Sebastian Sorger | 25c | 185.18$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.3 | 46 | 52.2%24 W · 22 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f67…866ebacked Sebastian Sorger | 25c | 185.18$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.3 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x133a…504abacked Sebastian Sorger | 30c | 153.89$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 3,424 | 39.1%1,338 W · 2,086 L | -12.3wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3cad…92f0backed Sebastian Sorger | 27c | 151.85$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 3,220 | 40.5%1,305 W · 1,915 L | +28.3wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e48…828fbacked Sebastian Sorger | 25c | 140$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 73 | 52.1%38 W · 35 L | -4.0wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa245…48f7backed Sebastian Sorger | 25c | 140$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 67 | 53.7%36 W · 31 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd82…6a10backed Sebastian Sorger | 25c | 140$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 285 | 57.9%165 W · 120 L | +5.8wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc06b…76ddbacked Sebastian Sorger | 25c | 140$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 80 | 50%40 W · 40 L | -7.5wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xaa2e…9d98backed Sebastian Sorger | 25c | 140$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 73 | 61.6%45 W · 28 L | +3.4wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaf3b…9035backed Sebastian Sorger | 36c | 138.89$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 307 | 55%169 W · 138 L | +5.5wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Sebastian Sorger | 18c | 111.75$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.23 | 5,416 | 48.6%2,633 W · 2,783 L | +14.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb9dd…13a2backed Sebastian Sorger | 28c | 107.14$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 245 | 57.6%141 W · 104 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8649…ba57backed Sebastian Sorger | 29c | 96.55$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 796 | 46%366 W · 430 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb421…8856backed Sebastian Sorger | 33c | 85.01$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.39 | 1,776 | 48.6%863 W · 913 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1233…444abacked Sebastian Sorger | 25c | 74.07$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.52 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -26%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Sebastian Sorger | 17c | 63.64$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.68 | 8,505 | 42.6%3,619 W · 4,886 L | -166.3wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e67…dad6backed Andrej Nedic | 75c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 34 | 44.1%15 W · 19 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x25af…9433backed Sebastian Sorger | 25c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 25 | 8%2 W · 23 L | -2.8wins | -0.11per pick | 19cpaid | -65.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x73c3…fd98backed Sebastian Sorger | 35c | 34.29$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 93 | 54.8%51 W · 42 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd3e…5a7abacked Andrej Nedic | 71c | 32.66$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.62 | 896 | 63.7%571 W · 325 L | +63.2wins | +0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5edb…00a9backed Andrej Nedic | 60c | 22.19$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.88 | 238 | 42.9%102 W · 136 L | -21.2wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x076d…8d4cbacked Andrej Nedic | 66c | 20.85$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.09 | 4,241 | 52.6%2,232 W · 2,009 L | +65.0wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Andrej Nedic | 61c | 17$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.61 | 439 | 50.8%223 W · 216 L | +10.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | 0%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb155…ca84backed Andrej Nedic | 78c | 14.99$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.36 | 920 | 46.6%429 W · 491 L | -14.2wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.