Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 32°C on July 21?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1fc3518aca053c4b83bdc82de5c6856b50f98bd9e2ea2296e7a9ae93ef4fba2e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,164
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,245
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,164 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 48 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 15c | 938.3$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.34 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3e9c…b879backed Yes | 10c | 772.74$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.22 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37e9…ab9fbacked Yes | 26c | 453.16$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.6 | 245 | 42.9%105 W · 140 L | +5.9wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7581…2ca4backed Yes | 18c | 385.25$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.99 | 208 | 33.2%69 W · 139 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 12c | 300.28$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf267…b0aebacked Yes | 4c | 250$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 99 | 9.1%9 W · 90 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -63.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x38f2…8690backed Yes | 57c | 175.97$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 36 | 58.3%21 W · 15 L | +2.1wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 30c | 150.82$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.08 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 64c | 143.39$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.24 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 19c | 137.1$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.7 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 62c | 136.93$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.65 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 16c | 136.59$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.36 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb5f4…3fdbbacked No | 63c | 116.26$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.65 | 273 | 35.9%98 W · 175 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x91f1…fc8bbacked Yes | 17c | 108.21$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 100 | 44%44 W · 56 L | +4.8wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9eda…6e19backed No | 80c | 100$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 775 | 55.2%428 W · 347 L | -13.9wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 13c | 85.18$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.7 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e40…2e56backed Yes | 16c | 80.95$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 66 | 60.6%40 W · 26 L | +4.0wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 77c | 74.99$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.53 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 56c | 74.08$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.45 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x0729…5f54backed No | 67c | 73.18$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.15 | 671 | 58.6%393 W · 278 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb649…1c5cbacked Yes | 20c | 71.57$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 60c | 66.15$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.23 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x35c4…d144backed No | 54c | 60$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.86 | 1,255 | 62.5%785 W · 470 L | +99.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6ebb…405abacked No | 77c | 59.75$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.86 | 790 | 40.9%323 W · 467 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a1f…4877backed Yes | 17c | 59.29$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 801 | 30.8%247 W · 554 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x09c2…8210backed Yes | 38c | 56.24$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.52 | 541 | 54%292 W · 249 L | +13.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed Yes | 21c | 51$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.71 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f3e…5337backed Yes | 57c | 50$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.58 | 818 | 48.5%397 W · 421 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x15a1…5ef3backed Yes | 80c | 41.51$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.06 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | -4.1wins | -0.15per pick | 63cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdc43…1271backed Yes | 69c | 40.87$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.12 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -2.1wins | -0.26per pick | 64cpaid | -41.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 80c | 40$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…dfe7backed No | 58c | 37.49$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.72 | 999 | 61.8%617 W · 382 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 32c | 37.32$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.33 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed Yes | 78c | 32.97$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.57 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed No | 78c | 31.25$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.9 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1461…b97ebacked No | 75c | 31.14$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.94 | 280 | 35.4%99 W · 181 L | -69.3wins | -0.25per pick | 60cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 25-0.23 edge/pick |
| 0xaafb…e81ebacked No | 79c | 30$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.3 | 152 | 75.7%115 W · 37 L | +6.4wins | +0.04per pick | 71cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xef29…c9f4backed Yes | 53c | 26.76$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 39c | 25.56$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.49 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 73c | 25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.75 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe43f…a889backed Yes | 78c | 22$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.12 | 174 | 57.5%100 W · 74 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…b45fbacked Yes | 62c | 20.06$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.45 | 1,089 | 59.4%647 W · 442 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9009…acb2backed No | 65c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +44.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xddba…e638backed No | 61c | 18.02$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.02 | 408 | 62.3%254 W · 154 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe2e3…5897backed No | 70c | 17.5$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.25 | 84 | 31%26 W · 58 L | -20.8wins | -0.25per pick | 56cpaid | -52.8%equal weight | 29-0.19 edge/pick |
| 0xa5cb…6882backed Yes | 70c | 16.14$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.33 | 177 | 59.9%106 W · 71 L | -5.6wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 79c | 15.05$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.89 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa539…214cbacked Yes | 78c | 12.75$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 32°C on July 21?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 33°C on July 21?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 34°C on July 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 35°C on July 21?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.