Europa Conference League · resolved market
Will AEK Larnaka vs. Brann end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1fd4a5ad67dc3e9dd006eb38d19f8b228e45d63bc8080148877ad8966d6c1c58
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Europa Conference Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,992
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,284
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,992 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 21 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Europa Conference League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4e94…6243backed No | 65c | 1,669$1,078 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$591.68 | 43 | 37.2%16 W · 27 L | -2.5wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0d16…029ebacked Yes | 35c | 1,663$589 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$588.82 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd269…8055backed Yes | 27c | 1,256$341 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$340.9 | 45 | 33.3%15 W · 30 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd81f…6b75backed No | 73c | 750$548 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$202.5 | 59 | 47.5%28 W · 31 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc2f8…56b6backed No | 72c | 456.1$330 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.25 | 51 | 47.1%24 W · 27 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -19%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7c1…2dbcbacked Yes | 11c | 250$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.5 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c87…70d5backed Yes | 26c | 137.12$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.7 | 52 | 32.7%17 W · 35 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7e…fce4backed Yes | 25c | 136.03$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.01 | 140 | 42.1%59 W · 81 L | +3.3wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc71e…f450backed Yes | 22c | 131.83$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.02 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a86…5664backed Yes | 27c | 111.11$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 80 | 30%24 W · 56 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8643…85b2backed Yes | 27c | 100$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.15per pick | 37cpaid | -62.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ee4…b575backed Yes | 27c | 74.07$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +1.2wins | +0.12per pick | 28cpaid | +55.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8725…eb10backed Yes | 27c | 66.67$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 181 | 45.9%83 W · 98 L | -6.2wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4634…6133backed Yes | 27c | 63.37$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c86…6993backed Yes | 26c | 62.12$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.15 | 34 | 44.1%15 W · 19 L | -2.5wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 66c | 60.54$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.66 | 2,999 | 42.4%1,273 W · 1,726 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd4…e888backed No | 74c | 47.3$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.3 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17e0…1e88backed No | 75c | 46$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.5 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +2.0wins | +0.34per pick | 49cpaid | +84%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa87f…c742backed Yes | 35c | 42.86$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb39e…5182backed Yes | 27c | 40.74$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c6f…74d4backed No | 74c | 14.82$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.85 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 73cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will AEK Larnaka vs. Brann end in a draw?this page
- Will AEK Larnaka win on 2025-08-27?No won
- Will Brann win on 2025-08-27?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.